Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Ok, been looking forward to the transcript of the DoD briefing since the first notes this afternoon. Seemed that there was some seriously interesting information about the air war. Here is the whole transcript btw. defense.gov/News/Transcrip…

For those who dont follow regularly, I think the airpower story along with logistics are the most important indicators of the war so far. The fact the Ukraine has denied Russia air superiority over the field of battle has been hugely important.

This press conference addressed more air questions than most Ive seen. What did they say? First what are the Russians doing. Well the Russians are attacking two things it seems. First they are trying to hit Ukrainian logistics targets.

However the interesting thing is that the pace of Russian air strikes is really slow. The number is not increasing that much daily (went up fro 1500 to 1540 yesterday), though is now more concentrated.

What about the Ukrainians. Well most interesting thing is that defensively, the Pentagon still thinks Ukrainian air defense (the bedrock of their resistance) is still in good shape. Mostly intact, though clearly they want more.

Moreover, when asked about Russian efforts to degrade Ukrainian air defense, the Pentagon says there are signs the Russians are trying, but doesnt sound like they are succeeding much.

What are the Ukrainians doing other than maintaining their air defense? Well the key thing is that they now have the switchblade system in Ukraine and with trained personnel. Some interesting reflections about how easy it is to train people on the system.

Otoh, US has not changed its position on transferring fixed wing aircraft to Ukraine. It is not opposed, but as of now the US is not taking part in it. Iow, Poland or Slovakia can do it on their own, the US wont take part.

So a fascinating glimpse of the air war, which might very well determine the Battle in the Donbas. Unless the Russians are deliberately shielding resources in prep for the battle, the Ukrainians seem in decent shape.

Ukrainian air defense is mostly intact, Russian sortie rates are down, the switchblade system is in Ukraine and can be operated by trained personnel. Considering how dominant many defense analysts believed the Russian air force would be--this is remarkable.

It also points to another point. Many people have been assuming the Russian military would be learning by this point and supposedly reverting to their strong pre-invasion doctrine. In the air, so far, no sign of that. Long may it continue.