Ok, been looking forward to the transcript of the DoD briefing since the first notes this afternoon. Seemed that there was some seriously interesting information about the air war. Here is the whole transcript btw. defense.gov/News/Transcrip…
For those who dont follow regularly, I think the airpower story along with logistics are the most important indicators of the war so far. The fact the Ukraine has denied Russia air superiority over the field of battle has been hugely important.
This press conference addressed more air questions than most Ive seen. What did they say? First what are the Russians doing. Well the Russians are attacking two things it seems. First they are trying to hit Ukrainian logistics targets.
However the interesting thing is that the pace of Russian air strikes is really slow. The number is not increasing that much daily (went up fro 1500 to 1540 yesterday), though is now more concentrated.
What about the Ukrainians. Well most interesting thing is that defensively, the Pentagon still thinks Ukrainian air defense (the bedrock of their resistance) is still in good shape. Mostly intact, though clearly they want more.
Moreover, when asked about Russian efforts to degrade Ukrainian air defense, the Pentagon says there are signs the Russians are trying, but doesnt sound like they are succeeding much.
What are the Ukrainians doing other than maintaining their air defense? Well the key thing is that they now have the switchblade system in Ukraine and with trained personnel. Some interesting reflections about how easy it is to train people on the system.
Otoh, US has not changed its position on transferring fixed wing aircraft to Ukraine. It is not opposed, but as of now the US is not taking part in it. Iow, Poland or Slovakia can do it on their own, the US wont take part.
So a fascinating glimpse of the air war, which might very well determine the Battle in the Donbas. Unless the Russians are deliberately shielding resources in prep for the battle, the Ukrainians seem in decent shape.
Ukrainian air defense is mostly intact, Russian sortie rates are down, the switchblade system is in Ukraine and can be operated by trained personnel. Considering how dominant many defense analysts believed the Russian air force would be--this is remarkable.
It also points to another point. Many people have been assuming the Russian military would be learning by this point and supposedly reverting to their strong pre-invasion doctrine. In the air, so far, no sign of that. Long may it continue.
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Bringing this back as the Pentagon briefing being reported by @JackDetsch is shedding even more interesting information on how the Ukrainians are fighting smart and how Russian resupply in Donbas is going.
Well if the report below is right, the Russians are still a long way from having enough force for a big encirclement of the Donbas (which they might not ever have). Pentagon saying there are only 65 Russian BTGs in Ukraine.
There has been a rather marked decrease in the estimates of Russian BTGs in Ukraine. Last week the spokesmen claimed (it what now looks to be an extraordinary intelligence error) that the Russians had 40 BTGs in the eastern region (basically Kharkiv to Izyum).
You know whose probably most affected by the sinking of the Moskva? I would say China. Another example of how this war is shaking up the strategic calculus and will, hopefully, make countries think twice about starting wars in the future.
The Moskva was the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and was supposedly well protected by anti-missile systems. Yet the Ukrainians, who have had little experience of anti-ship missiles, have taken out this very valuable Russian asset.
In a nutshell any Chinese naval attempt to attack Taiwan, or indeed a US and allies attempt to send lots of warships near the Chinese coast, would open up the possibilities of mass numbers of Moskva’s.
This is a helpful list to understand what the US is sending to Ukraine, and what it indicates about the state of the war and, crucially what we can expect from the Ukrainian armed forces going forwards.
First, US is defintely upgrading Ukrainian capabilities. The MI 17 helicopters are interesting. Multipurpose so can’t say definitely what their use is. My best guess; to allow the Ukrainians to do more SF work behind Russian lines.
The reality of redeploying a defeated and exhausted army is now becoming apparent to those who talked about the Russians redeploying their Kyiv forces to the Donbas. It’s now been a weak since Russian forces were almost all out of Kyiv and Chernihiv. forbes.com/sites/joewalsh…
Where are those forces now. Well best intelligence has them on their way from their withdrawal points to around Belgorod, in Russia, for rest and refit. In the US DOD briefing two days ago it was stated that these forces were still on their way.
@TheStudyofWar update last night still has these forces in this rest refit mode.
By keeping control of Kharkiv and forcing the Russians onto narrow, secondary roads it seems to be slowing down the build up of Russian forces in the Donbas.