Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

The reality of redeploying a defeated and exhausted army is now becoming apparent to those who talked about the Russians redeploying their Kyiv forces to the Donbas. It’s now been a weak since Russian forces were almost all out of Kyiv and Chernihiv. forbes.com/sites/joewalsh…

Where are those forces now. Well best intelligence has them on their way from their withdrawal points to around Belgorod, in Russia, for rest and refit. In the US DOD briefing two days ago it was stated that these forces were still on their way.

@TheStudyofWar update last night still has these forces in this rest refit mode.

And there are these persistent reports that Russian forces are finding ways to avoid going back to Ukraine.

Add this to the fact that these forces, if they can be rested refitted, will need a significant period to deploy into Ukraine, as the road system is still working against them.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1513939920641040403

The Russians seem to be stuck by this slow motion redeploy. They are continuing their low level attacks in the Donbas. But with not enough forces to press ahead a lot, but unsure when they can receive major reinforcement. They are suffering regular attritional losses. (See ISW).

At the same time they are struggling in the air.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1514001940644085773

Long story short; those who talked about both the Russian Army now fighting smart according to their excellent doctrine and somehow making major gains by May 9 are looking decidedly ‘optimistic’ by Russian standards.

What it actually is looking at is Russia suffering a constant drip, drip of losses, making small gains, and instead of building up massive force for one effort, feeding forces more slowly over a poor road network. All without air dominance.

So people need to be very careful before taking about a major, large and powerful Russian offensive kicking off soon.

A picture of a bunched up convoy on the way to Donbas. No longer spread out as in pictures a few days ago, looks like a little traffic jam.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1514134366104039434?s=20&t=hKs92P6DoGo7Xio7rJp4cw

And the location puts it on a really minor road.

Another picture of a Russian convoy moving towards Izyum, though not 'at a breakneck' speed--to put it kindly. The Kyiv forces after resting and being resupplied are still a long way from reaching battle.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1514132973834182656?s=20&t=hKs92P6DoGo7Xio7rJp4cw

If this is actually what Russia ends up doing; they are strategically bankrupt and haven’t learned a thing. Just drip feeding forces as they become available is a recipe for Russian failure.

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1514274845105795072

And personally think this is right; Give Ukraine ranged weapons. Artillery, UAVs, fixed wing aircraft, things to allow them to attack around Russian formations. keeps Ukrainian casualties down too. Should matter more than tanks.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1514271886540222466

Zelensky’s take on the need for weapons. Wants mostly ranged weapons, tanks the Ukrainians are comfortable with and armored vehicles to protect their infantry.

https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1514267715879452674

Reading this thread, the contrast between the clarity of Ukrainian strategic understanding and the chaos of Russian behaviour is really something.

Wow; that is quick. If the UkrainIans can get decent ranged weaponry in 48 hours that can make a big difference in the Donbas. Especially considering it will take the Russians weeks to start feeding in the Kyiv refitting forces.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1514266633774186501

Biden's transcript of his promise of aid to Ukraine is fascinating. Helicopters listed clearly. Lots of range weapons, APCs. Only thing missing from Zelensky's preferred list was fixed wing aircraft. Considering Polish visit today, maybe those are coming?

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1514305957672673280?s=20&t=BA8O2zo1_WUCKxalYh6mGg