Thread by @shashj

Remarkable turnaround. On March 8th Swedish PM said NATO bid "would further destabilise the security of this particular region of Europe". Now: "The Social Democrats' party leadership has decided. Magdalena Andersson's goal is for Sweden to join NATO in June this year."

https://twitter.com/SvD/status/1514173072865210370

"The [Swedish NATO] application is scheduled to be submitted at the NATO meeting in Madrid June 29-20, according to SvD's understanding" svd.se/a/Wj5gW2/uppgi…

Finnish and Swedish PMs meeting in Stockholm today, and about to have a press conference.

https://twitter.com/charlyjsp/status/1514182805160443905?s=20&t=PMn6YuZYTdDpyCtJ5W22AQ

Finnish PM: "the difference between being a [NATO] partner and being a member is very clear, and will remain so. There's no other way to have security guarantees than under NATO's deterrence and common defence as guaranteed by NATO's article five".

Finnish PM: "the report [pub'd today] sees NATO not only as a military alliance, but also as a political alliance. NATO is an organisation where important decisions concerning our security are taken. It is an important part of Europe's political and security architecture."

Finnish PM: "Both Finland and Sweden make independently their decisions regarding security policy arrangements. but we do that with a clear understanding that our choices will affect not only ourselves, but our neighbours as well."

Finnish PM: we "also need to be very frank about consequences and risks that are both short term and more long term ... These risks are there both if we apply [to NATO] and if we do not apply. This is the debate which needs to be taking place in the parliament."

Finnish PM: "I won't give any kind of timetable when we will make our [NATO] decisions but I think it will happen quite fast—within weeks, not within months, we will have the discussion"

Swedish PM: "There is a before and after 24th of February. The security landscape has completely changed, both with the demand from Russia in December, and then the invasion of Ukraine, and given that situation we have to really think through what is best for Sweden."

Swedish PM: "we have to analyse the situation to see what is best for Sweden's security, for the Swedish people, in this new situation and you shouldn't rush into that, you should make it very seriously"

Finnish PM: "we have to wonder what is the best way to secure that this [Ukraine] wouldn't ever happen in Finland." She mentions Article Five, but also nuclear guarantees: "also [the] umbrella with nuclear weapons will make it so that we would have that kind of security"

Finnish PM: Finland & Sweden "will deliver decisions independently, and we will have very close connections and very close dialogue. but of course...I would prefer that we would make the similar kinds of choices for the whole region—but it's up to Sweden to decide for yourself"

Swedish PM was asked about the @SvD report. She emphasised the importance of making a decision only after a careful process, but I did not hear her deny the core claim that her or her party's aim is now a NATO bid by June.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1514181898456555531?s=20&t=MyYisdc97ap5nmtRzDgDtw

Finnish gov't report out today, which will inform parliamentary debate, says Finnish & Swedish NATO membership "would increase the long-term stability of the Baltic Sea region" largely because it "would raise the threshold for the use of military force" hs.fi/politiikka/art…

Finnish FM: "We are aware that [NATO] membership is not born in an instant. [It] goes to all member countries for approval, it can take four or 12 months, there is a time when it is not covered by security guarantees." hs.fi/politiikka/art…

Finnish defence minister: Finland 'has a good understanding of the most important effects of NATO membership...They would be specified in the accession negotiations. "Potential NATO membership would bring change but would include continuity."...' hs.fi/politiikka/art…

Finnish defence min: "The best and most natural thing would be for us to have the same basic solution in the NATO case." If Finland applies to NATO, it would be good if Sweden's decision were the same, even if they both make their own decisions. hs.fi/politiikka/art…

Full text of Finnish gov't report on security policy. Key sentence: "Should Finland & Sweden become NATO members, the threshold for using military force in the Baltic Sea region would rise, which would enhance the stability of the region in the long term." julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/bitstream/hand…

Finnish gov't: "most significant effect of its possible NATO membership would be that Finland would be part of NATO’s collective defence..covered by..Article 5. The deterrent effect of Finland’s defence would be considerably stronger than it is at present" julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/bitstream/hand…

This report's analysis, in concert with changes in opinion polls and parliamentary opinion, makes clear that a Finnish NATO bid—and eventual membership—is now the most likely outcome, and highly likely.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1514209740649340933?s=20&t=MyYisdc97ap5nmtRzDgDtw