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Samuel Ramani Profile picture
@SamRamani2
Apr 13, 2022 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
BREAKING: Russia imposes sanctions on 398 members of the US House of Representatives
The official Russian Foreign Ministry statement here. It is a direct response to US sanctions on Russian State Duma members after they recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics Image
Some members of Congress were sanctioned by Russia before today

Thats why only 398 out of 435 were included in the latest package

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More from @SamRamani2

Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Nov 13
Ukraine has been rocked by a massive energy sector corruption scandal

My company Pangea Geopolitical Risk is working on this crisis and mapping out what comes next

Here are some insights and perspectives /THREAD
Murmurings about corruption involving Timur Mindich were swirling in Kyiv for months but not making the international media in a significant way

The revelations of graft involving him are not coming as a huge shock to some of my sources in Kyiv /1
The energy sector in Ukraine is also notoriously corrupt

Coal was the initial playground for kleptocracy during the 1990s and early 2000s

Yulia Tymoshenko tried to reform the coal sector and was removed/charged by Leonid Kuchma /2
Read 12 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Nov 11
Sudan is spiraling into the abyss

The RSF's El Fasher massacre has killed thousands and famine threatens the lives of millions

Here is a layout of how we got to this point and why the West deserves much of the blame /THREAD
Western policy towards Sudan has been characterized by contradictions and incoherence

Intense engagement followed by disinterest, shifting attitudes towards perpetrators of violence/genocide and a tendency of abandoning the country when it needed support most /1
The story starts during the Cold War

The US was looking for additional bulwarks against communism to complement its robust foothold in Zaire and forays into the Horn of Africa (Somalia/Ethiopia in alternation) /2
Read 16 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Nov 7
Kazakhstan has officially joined the Abraham Accords

Here's the context behind that move and what it means /THREAD
Kazakhstan and Israel already have established ties, they date back to the immediate aftermath of the Soviet Union's collapse (1992 to be precise)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu already visited Kazakhstan in 2016 /1
Kazakhstan has also maintained an equi-distant policy in the Gaza War and the prevailing view from journalistic pieces/research on Kazakh society is that it wants to be insulated from Middle East developments

So engagement with Israel is par for the course /2
Read 11 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Oct 11
A ceasefire has taken hold in Gaza and Israeli hostages are about to be released

Here's an overview of what will likely come next /THREAD
The ceasefire was driven by two key factors

The first was that Hamas saw no chance of outlasting Israel's military resolve and surviving as a governing power in the pre-2023 form

The second was that Israel also realized the complete annhiliation of Hamas was unachievable /1
Pressure on Israel from the US was also mounting

During my recent trip to Washington, Democrats framed Israel's war as a Netanyahu regime survival mission and Republicans were quizzical about whether Israel was trading short-term wins for long-term insecurity /2
Read 11 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Aug 9
Armenia and Azerbaijan have struck a peace agreement

There are still numerous unsettled issues but its a major geopolitical sea change

Here's what's likely to come next /1
The US's brokering of the Armenia-Azerbaijan final settlement deals a significant blow to Russia, Iran and Europe's status

Russia wanted the 3+3 format including itself, Iran and Turkey as well as Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia to achieve a breakthrough /2
The problem was that Russia was regarded as a power that was stoking the conflict to maximize its leverage

Selling arms to both sides before the 2020 war and there was widespread skepticism in Azerbaijan about the hegemonic intentions of Russian peacekeepers /3
Read 12 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Jul 19
Secondary Tariffs, New Sanctions or Both?

This is the debate in Washington right now after Trump's pivot against Russia

In this thread, I break down what economic measures will work and won't work against Russia /THREAD
Trump's secondary tariffs against Russia are unlikely to be enforceable without escalating a trade war with China, torpedoing UAE investments and derailing a trade deal with India

Its not a viable approach even though if implemented to max, they would be devastating /1
Instead, the focus needs to be on closing key loopholes in the sanctions regime

While significant progress has been made against banks like Sberbank and Gazprombank, they are not the only front against Russia's SWIFT access

Nuclear energy giant Rosatom is a key actor /2
Read 9 tweets

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