Russia and Ukraine are seemingly locked in a stalemate after two years of war

The reality is more complicated

Some thoughts here /1 The stalemate assessment is correct from one vantage point: neither Ukraine nor Russia are likely to achieve large territorial gains soon

In fact, Russia has taken an "operational pause" around Avdiivka, while Ukraine's Dnipro River breakthroughs in November 2023 stalled /2

Russia has likely captured the Donetsk battleground of Marinka

Some more details on what this means and what will happen next /1 Russian and Ukrainian reports on the Marinka situation vary

Shoigu told Putin Marinka had completely fallen, while Zaluzhny claims that Ukraine is still operating in the northern outskirts of Marinka and has a defensive line prepared /2

Diplomacy is making a behind-the-scenes comeback as the Gaza War approaches its 2.5 month anniversary

Some key developments to watch /1 Israel's Mossad chief David Barnea met with Qatar's Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani to discuss the resumption of hostage releases

CIA director Bill Burns and Egypt's Abbas Kamel are also reportedly aiding these negotiations /2

Ilia Kyva was killed in Moscow today

Some details on his career and significance /1 Ilia Kyva served as a pro-Russian Ukrainian MP from 2019 to 2022 and fled to Russia after it invaded Ukraine

But his background was diametrically opposed to that of a Russian collaborator: he was an ally of Dmytro Yarosh and the Ukrainian far-right Right Sector movement /2

Henry Kissinger was outspoken on Russia's war against Ukraine

Here is how Kissinger viewed the Ukraine War from 2014 to the current invasion /1 Kissinger expressed sensitivity to Russia's view of Ukraine as an extension of itself rather than a fully sovereign country

The 1709 Battle of Poltava and Solzhenitsyn's views on Ukraine as an integral part of Russian history featured /2

Javier Milei's victory has created some uncertainties about Argentina's foreign policy direction

Some thoughts on where Milei's foreign policy might go /1 One key issue is obviously BRICS accession

Milei has signalled that Argentina will not join BRICS and this reflects a broader view from Argentina's opposition: former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich also opposed BRICS membership /2

Russia's demographic crisis is gaining more attention from ultranationalists and the media

A mixture of alarmism, extremism and denialism. Some of the more interesting perspectives /1 Russian MP Pyotr Tolstoy fumes that solutions have not progressed since Putin's commitment to traditional values was enshrined in 2022

Tolstoy calls demographic decline Russia's main national security issue and blasts "populist and stupid solutions"
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Qatar's diplomacy on the Gaza War has been progressing at an extraordinary speed

A look at Qatar's latest diplomatic activities /1 The Qatari Emir travelled to Riyadh to meet with Mohammed bin Salman
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The public emphasis was on a ceasefire and aid to Gaza

Given that a ceasefire would keep Hamas in power and Saudi Arabia is more distant from Hamas, Qatar is seeking to bridge the gap /2

Netanyahu's comments on assuming security responsibility in Gaza have fuelled concerns about an Israeli occupation

Here are 4 scenarios that could follow an Israeli victory over Hamas /THREAD SCENARIO 1: Short-Term Israeli Occupation Followed by Transfer of Power (Most Likely)

Israel's lack of clear preparations for Hamas's endgame and relatively swift military progress so far, which includes the encirclement of Gaza City, could cause Israel to assume this

There are growing calls for Ukraine to sue for peace with Russia

The assumption is if Ukraine and the West offer, Russia will eagerly accept peace

Here's why this view is wrong /1 The argument is that Ukraine could have sued for peace in March 2022 in Istanbul

But due to pressure from Western leaders, such as Boris Johnson, confidence from Russia's failure in Kyiv and rage at the Bucha Massacre discovered right after, it resisted peace /2

Ukraine's counter-offensive has been panned as a failure

The truth is more complex

Some thoughts on the successes and failures of Ukraine's counter-offensive /1 SUCCESS: Preventing Russian Gains

Ukraine has carried out offensive operations in the south and east, while preventing notable Russian gains

Fortifications and mines caused Russia to lose 200 armoured vehicles and 1000s of personnel in Avdiivka alone over 3 weeks

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is expected to break his silence tomorrow

Here's what we should expect /1 A full-scale declaration of war is unlikely

Even if there is a war declaration of sorts, it will most likely be Houthi style, followed by more intense but still managed attacks from the northern border

The Lebanese political establishment and public opinion is anti war /2

Russian Telegram channels are reacting strongly to the Dagestan pogrom

Lots of conspiracy theories about Ukrainian involvement and frustrations with the Russian government response

Some of the more interesting perspectives /1 The Russian Foreign Ministry attributed it to Ukraine and claimed that it mobilised Russophobes to carry out the pogrom in Dagestan

An entirely predictable response, as Russian propagandists immediately talked about external interference
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Iran claims that it has no control over the actions of aligned militant groups

This is very misleading but its equally important to recognise that Iran's proxies and allies have domestic interests

These interests could limit the scope of escalation

I explain in this thread /1 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is the least likely actor to escalate

Russia has reportedly urged Syria to restrain its use of S-300s in response to past Israeli strikes and the UAE also can deter escalations

Assad wants stability and future reconstruction funds /2

Niger is out of the headlines

There are some interesting geopolitical dynamics in Niger that are worth tracking

Some more details /1 NIGER-IRAN TIES:

The Niger junta foreign minister visited Iran this week

Iran vowed to help Niger with electricity production and strengthen economic ties

Iranian officials and media have backed the junta and Russia's narratives that the coup was against Western colonialism

Oleg Tsaryov was rumoured to be Putin's choice to lead Ukraine if Russia had occupied by Kyiv

Now he has been shot and is in critical condition

Some more details on Tsaryov's career and views on the Ukraine War /1 Tsaryov's entry into political life coincided with Viktor Yanukovych's rising clout as Party of Regions leader

Tsaryov became an MP in 2002

Tsaryov railed against the Orange Revolution, warned of fascism in Ukraine and decried Ukrainian NATO membership /2

Russia hosted a Hamas delegation today

Here is what we know about the meeting /1 The meeting has likely been planned since October 7

Once it was clear that at least 6 of the hostages were Russian citizens, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov called for a meeting with Hamas in Qatar /2

Russian Telegram channels are hailing their alliance with North Korea and whitewashing North Korea's totalitarian system

Some of the more interesting reactions here /1 Fascist philosopher Alexander Dugin says that Russia has 3 allies in the world

They are Belarus, Iran and North Korea. Dugin has long championed closer ties with Iran and North Korea, and castigated "liberal intellectuals" in Russia who oppose it
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Russian Telegram channels reacted strongly to Ukraine's ATACM strikes

Some of the more interesting reactions, which reflected a shift from panic to false confidence /1 Boris Rozhin contends that ATACMS were in Ukraine's hands for some time and they waited for the right moment to strike

Rozhin acknowledges that Russia needs to take more steps to safeguard its airfields but expresses relief at minimal personnel casualties
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Former Ukrainian presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych released a blistering critique of Ukraine's counter-offensive and calls for elections in Ukraine

A breakdown of his key points /1 Arestovych claimed that Ukraine expended valuable resources in the eastern axis of its counter-offensive to try to retake Bakhmut

Focusing on the southern axis exclusively could have dealt Russia a return to Feb 24, 2022 borders and a devastating defeat for Putin /2

Qatar is taking the lead in potential prisoner swap negotiations between Israel and Hamas

It faces an uphill struggle by its own admission

But it accords with a long history of Qatari diplomacy around Hamas and Gaza. Some more details /1 After the 2009 Israel-Gaza War, Qatar tried to act as a humanitarian bridge between Israel and the Gaza Strip

It proposed to create an Israeli trade office to allow Qatari aid to flow to Gaza. Israel rejected this proposal so it died /2