Russian Telegram channels are reacting feverishly to the Okhmadyt hospital attack

A usual mix of falsehoods and deflection of blame to Ukraine

Here are some key narratives /1 Kirill Fedorov is sticking with the view that the hospital attack is a staged provocation by Ukraine

His proof: Zelensky is negotiating security guarantees in Poland while the attack happened and Zelensky always flees Ukraine when attacks occur
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BREAKING: North Korea will dispatch an army engineer unit to Russian-occupied Donetsk Much like how Iran sent technical advisors to Crimea in tandem with the drone transfers to Russia, North Korea is combining arms transfers with a ground presence of sorts

This mirrors what North Korea did in Syria and Zimbabwe in the past

Russia is reacting forcefully and with fiery conspiracies about the Dagestan terrorist attack

Some of the main narratives being pushed /1 Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill framed the Dagestan terrorist attack as a crisis of inter-ethnic and religious disunity in Russia

Kirill's message is one of reconciliation and was less fiery than his pro-war rallies on Ukraine /2
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Vladimir Putin is visiting Vietnam this week

The US has rebuked Vietnam for inviting Putin but the Russia-Vietnam partnership is multi-faceted

Some thoughts on Putin's Vietnam trip /1 Putin has paid close attention to Russia-Vietnam relations since the start of his presidency

In January 2001, Putin visited Vietnam for the first time to commemorate the 50th anniversary of Soviet relations with North Vietnam /2

Vladimir Putin recently proposed a peace plan that is not a peace plan

It would allow Russia to keep the four illegally wartime annexed regions of Ukraine plus Crimea

Some thoughts on Putin's announcement /1 The obvious driver of Putin's announcement was to present a counterweight to the Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland

Zelensky's peace formula calls for Russia's expulsion from Ukraine, so Putin is responding with the maximalist positions that Russia has reiterated since 2022 /2

Armenia just announced that it will quit the Russian-led CSTO

This drastic move will have major implications for the South Caucasus and Russian foreign policy

Here are some thoughts on how it came about /1 The crisis in Russia-Armenia relations has been intensifying for years

Serzh Sargsyan's rejection of cooperation with the EU in favour of Eurasian integration in 2013 created centrifugal forces within Armenian society /2

Germany's far-right AfD Party has been lambasted for its close ties with Russia

Here's how the AfD enables Russian interests and propaganda /1 1) Legitimizing Russia's Territorial Annexations

In early 2018, an AfD delegation travelled to Crimea and justified Russia's illegal annexation

One MP denied the notion of an occupation and argued that Crimea residents want to be part of Russia /2
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NATO countries are approving Ukraine's ability to strike Russian targets

Warnings about Russian nuclear weapons use are soaring

Here are my thoughts on what might cause Russia to use nuclear weapons /1 A popular assumption in the West is that Russia's nuclear weapons use is fundamentally reactive

Strike Crimea, the risk grows; strike Russian territory proper, the risk soars higher

So reining in support for Ukraine is the best way to reduce the risk of Russian nuclear use /2

Russia and Ukraine are seemingly locked in a stalemate after two years of war

The reality is more complicated

Some thoughts here /1 The stalemate assessment is correct from one vantage point: neither Ukraine nor Russia are likely to achieve large territorial gains soon

In fact, Russia has taken an "operational pause" around Avdiivka, while Ukraine's Dnipro River breakthroughs in November 2023 stalled /2

Russia has likely captured the Donetsk battleground of Marinka

Some more details on what this means and what will happen next /1 Russian and Ukrainian reports on the Marinka situation vary

Shoigu told Putin Marinka had completely fallen, while Zaluzhny claims that Ukraine is still operating in the northern outskirts of Marinka and has a defensive line prepared /2

Diplomacy is making a behind-the-scenes comeback as the Gaza War approaches its 2.5 month anniversary

Some key developments to watch /1 Israel's Mossad chief David Barnea met with Qatar's Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani to discuss the resumption of hostage releases

CIA director Bill Burns and Egypt's Abbas Kamel are also reportedly aiding these negotiations /2

Ilia Kyva was killed in Moscow today

Some details on his career and significance /1 Ilia Kyva served as a pro-Russian Ukrainian MP from 2019 to 2022 and fled to Russia after it invaded Ukraine

But his background was diametrically opposed to that of a Russian collaborator: he was an ally of Dmytro Yarosh and the Ukrainian far-right Right Sector movement /2

Henry Kissinger was outspoken on Russia's war against Ukraine

Here is how Kissinger viewed the Ukraine War from 2014 to the current invasion /1 Kissinger expressed sensitivity to Russia's view of Ukraine as an extension of itself rather than a fully sovereign country

The 1709 Battle of Poltava and Solzhenitsyn's views on Ukraine as an integral part of Russian history featured /2

Javier Milei's victory has created some uncertainties about Argentina's foreign policy direction

Some thoughts on where Milei's foreign policy might go /1 One key issue is obviously BRICS accession

Milei has signalled that Argentina will not join BRICS and this reflects a broader view from Argentina's opposition: former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich also opposed BRICS membership /2

Russia's demographic crisis is gaining more attention from ultranationalists and the media

A mixture of alarmism, extremism and denialism. Some of the more interesting perspectives /1 Russian MP Pyotr Tolstoy fumes that solutions have not progressed since Putin's commitment to traditional values was enshrined in 2022

Tolstoy calls demographic decline Russia's main national security issue and blasts "populist and stupid solutions"
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Qatar's diplomacy on the Gaza War has been progressing at an extraordinary speed

A look at Qatar's latest diplomatic activities /1 The Qatari Emir travelled to Riyadh to meet with Mohammed bin Salman
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The public emphasis was on a ceasefire and aid to Gaza

Given that a ceasefire would keep Hamas in power and Saudi Arabia is more distant from Hamas, Qatar is seeking to bridge the gap /2

Netanyahu's comments on assuming security responsibility in Gaza have fuelled concerns about an Israeli occupation

Here are 4 scenarios that could follow an Israeli victory over Hamas /THREAD SCENARIO 1: Short-Term Israeli Occupation Followed by Transfer of Power (Most Likely)

Israel's lack of clear preparations for Hamas's endgame and relatively swift military progress so far, which includes the encirclement of Gaza City, could cause Israel to assume this

There are growing calls for Ukraine to sue for peace with Russia

The assumption is if Ukraine and the West offer, Russia will eagerly accept peace

Here's why this view is wrong /1 The argument is that Ukraine could have sued for peace in March 2022 in Istanbul

But due to pressure from Western leaders, such as Boris Johnson, confidence from Russia's failure in Kyiv and rage at the Bucha Massacre discovered right after, it resisted peace /2

Ukraine's counter-offensive has been panned as a failure

The truth is more complex

Some thoughts on the successes and failures of Ukraine's counter-offensive /1 SUCCESS: Preventing Russian Gains

Ukraine has carried out offensive operations in the south and east, while preventing notable Russian gains

Fortifications and mines caused Russia to lose 200 armoured vehicles and 1000s of personnel in Avdiivka alone over 3 weeks

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is expected to break his silence tomorrow

Here's what we should expect /1 A full-scale declaration of war is unlikely

Even if there is a war declaration of sorts, it will most likely be Houthi style, followed by more intense but still managed attacks from the northern border

The Lebanese political establishment and public opinion is anti war /2

Russian Telegram channels are reacting strongly to the Dagestan pogrom

Lots of conspiracy theories about Ukrainian involvement and frustrations with the Russian government response

Some of the more interesting perspectives /1 The Russian Foreign Ministry attributed it to Ukraine and claimed that it mobilised Russophobes to carry out the pogrom in Dagestan

An entirely predictable response, as Russian propagandists immediately talked about external interference
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