Romania has barred Calin Georgescu from running for President

Some thoughts on Romania's decision and what it might lead to /THREAD Romania has used legal pretexts to justify the detention, election cancellation and ban

One is undeclared funds of 1 million euros and second is a cyberattack by a state actor that compromised the election process /1

Donald Trump has called for tariffs and banking sanctions on Russia if they don't pursue peace

Here's what a maximum pressure strategy towards Russia could entail /THREAD The first steps would be to close gaps in the sanctions regime that allow Russia to funnel revenue to its war machine

The most blatant gap is Rosatom, as civilian nuclear energy is unsanctioned, but there is scope in the energy sector especially LNG /1

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described the Ukraine War as a proxy war

Some thoughts on this comment and its significance /THREAD A proxy war assumes that Ukraine is effectively a staging ground for a conflict between two major power blocs

This could be Russia and the US/EU or more expansive Russia and its autocratic allies China, Iran and North Korea versus Western liberal democracies /1

Donald Trump has cut off aid to Ukraine

It is the final chapter in a story of Western restraint which has prevented Ukraine from being able to triumph against Russian aggression

I tell the story in this thread/THREAD In 2008, Russia invaded Georgia in order to assert its control over South Ossetia and thwart its NATO membership

Russia began issuing passports to nationals in Crimea as the Georgian War ended but the West looked the other way and did not sanction Russia over Georgia /1

Russian Telegram channels are upping the ante after Trump freezes Ukraine aid

Here's some of the narratives I am seeing /1 Rossiya-1 anchor Vladimir Solovyov has a take on Elon Musk's proposal to send Zelensky into exile to restore democracy to Ukraine

Solovyov calls him a "bloodthirsty Drug Clown" and demands that Zelensky be tried for crimes against Russia /2

Donald Trump has temporarily suspended all US military aid to Ukraine

Here's what Trump's decision means for the war /THREAD Joe Biden authorized $1.25 billion in arms to drawdown from the Pentagon stockpiles over a 6 month period

1/3 of those arms shipments reached Ukraine, the other 2/3 are now in limbo /1

The US is pushing Ukraine to sign a rare earth metal agreement with Ukraine

The pathway to this agreement is more arduous than it appears. Some thoughts /1 The first issue is the size of the rare earth collateral that Ukraine is willing to give the US

Trump's push for a $500 billion rare earth collateral drastically exceeds US military aid to Ukraine, which runs at around $120 billion /2

Saudi Arabia is hosting talks to end the Ukraine War

Here's how Saudi Arabia assumed this interlocutor role /1 Saudi Arabia earned this interlocutor role over a variety of prospective rivals

Switzerland, Singapore, the UAE as well as Slovakia and Serbia were positioning themselves for these talks /2

We are learning more about North Korea's combat techniques in Kursk

Here are some key insights /1 The prevailing narrative about North Korean forces in Ukraine is that they are simply cannon fodder

Ukrainian commanders who are fighting in Kursk are telling a different story /2

Ukraine has been linked to a wide variety of targeted assassinations in Russia

Here are some of the most significant ones /1 The first was Darya Dugina

This attack was carried out in closer proximity to two higher value targets from Ukraine's perspective Konstantin Malofeev and Alexander Dugin

Yet it showed Ukraine's ability to take the war to Russia as early as mid-2022 /2

Donald Trump has vowed to quickly end the war in Ukraine

Here are some thoughts on how Russia and Ukraine see Trump's victory, and what might come next /1 Russia's immediate response to Trump's victory has been characterised by disparate messaging

The Kremlin official line is that it is treading cautiously on the prospect of peace in Ukraine and is in no rush for a settlement /2

China's reaction to North Korea's entry into the Ukraine War is a subject of rising concern

Some thoughts on the view from Beijing /1 The Chinese Foreign Ministry has chosen to sidestep the issue in public statements

On November 1, China claimed it knew little about the specifics of Russia-North Korea cooperation and reiterated its support for peace in Ukraine /2

North Korean troops are joining Russia's war on Ukraine

Here is what we know so far /1 There is a confirmed movement of North Korean forces to the Russian Far East

Military bases near Ussuriyk to the north of Vladivostok are being used to house these North Korean forces /2

Russian Telegram channels are reacting feverishly to the Okhmadyt hospital attack

A usual mix of falsehoods and deflection of blame to Ukraine

Here are some key narratives /1 Kirill Fedorov is sticking with the view that the hospital attack is a staged provocation by Ukraine

His proof: Zelensky is negotiating security guarantees in Poland while the attack happened and Zelensky always flees Ukraine when attacks occur
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BREAKING: North Korea will dispatch an army engineer unit to Russian-occupied Donetsk Much like how Iran sent technical advisors to Crimea in tandem with the drone transfers to Russia, North Korea is combining arms transfers with a ground presence of sorts

This mirrors what North Korea did in Syria and Zimbabwe in the past

Russia is reacting forcefully and with fiery conspiracies about the Dagestan terrorist attack

Some of the main narratives being pushed /1 Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill framed the Dagestan terrorist attack as a crisis of inter-ethnic and religious disunity in Russia

Kirill's message is one of reconciliation and was less fiery than his pro-war rallies on Ukraine /2
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Vladimir Putin is visiting Vietnam this week

The US has rebuked Vietnam for inviting Putin but the Russia-Vietnam partnership is multi-faceted

Some thoughts on Putin's Vietnam trip /1 Putin has paid close attention to Russia-Vietnam relations since the start of his presidency

In January 2001, Putin visited Vietnam for the first time to commemorate the 50th anniversary of Soviet relations with North Vietnam /2

Vladimir Putin recently proposed a peace plan that is not a peace plan

It would allow Russia to keep the four illegally wartime annexed regions of Ukraine plus Crimea

Some thoughts on Putin's announcement /1 The obvious driver of Putin's announcement was to present a counterweight to the Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland

Zelensky's peace formula calls for Russia's expulsion from Ukraine, so Putin is responding with the maximalist positions that Russia has reiterated since 2022 /2

Armenia just announced that it will quit the Russian-led CSTO

This drastic move will have major implications for the South Caucasus and Russian foreign policy

Here are some thoughts on how it came about /1 The crisis in Russia-Armenia relations has been intensifying for years

Serzh Sargsyan's rejection of cooperation with the EU in favour of Eurasian integration in 2013 created centrifugal forces within Armenian society /2

Germany's far-right AfD Party has been lambasted for its close ties with Russia

Here's how the AfD enables Russian interests and propaganda /1 1) Legitimizing Russia's Territorial Annexations

In early 2018, an AfD delegation travelled to Crimea and justified Russia's illegal annexation

One MP denied the notion of an occupation and argued that Crimea residents want to be part of Russia /2
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NATO countries are approving Ukraine's ability to strike Russian targets

Warnings about Russian nuclear weapons use are soaring

Here are my thoughts on what might cause Russia to use nuclear weapons /1 A popular assumption in the West is that Russia's nuclear weapons use is fundamentally reactive

Strike Crimea, the risk grows; strike Russian territory proper, the risk soars higher

So reining in support for Ukraine is the best way to reduce the risk of Russian nuclear use /2