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Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

Apr 9

This is by far the toughest market I've experienced since the GFC-bust (on par with the TMT bust).

Growth stocks have already been smoked but there is still a lot of denial at the index level. Given where inflation is, the Fed has no choice but to tighten aggressively.

The 2020-2021 boom was due to unprecedented ZIRP, QE and fiscal stimulus.

Now, QE has ended, Fed is jacking up rates and QT is about to start. Therefore, the liquidity cycle has now reversed, economy and indices will get the memo soon.

The Fed has already telegraphed its plans and central banks usually don't change their path unless the data warrants a policy shift.

Therefore, inflation will need to come down and/or the economy will have to weaken before the Fed pauses or eases again.

Read 4 tweets

Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

Mar 31

1)Portfolio Mar-end -

$ADYEY $CFLT $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $MELI $MNDY $OKTA $PLTR $S $SE $SHOP $SOFI $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $U $ZI #ES_F

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +692.91% (44.93%pa)
$ACWI +72.78% (10.30%pa)
$SPX +108.70% (14.09%pa)

Contd...

2) YTD return (2022)-

Portfolio +0.22%
$ACWI (-)7.53%
$SPX (-)5.73%

Biggest positions -

1) $MELI 2) $PLTR 3) $SNOW 4) $ZI 5) $DDOG

Contd....

3) Commentary -

March was a decent month for stocks but my portfolio lost some ground due to my portfolio hedges, big drawdowns in some of my stocks and losses on my index short positions.

Nevertheless, my portfolio managed to close out the month with a 0.22% YTD gain...

Read 8 tweets

Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

Mar 8

A selling climax likely soon...

Looking for ~3,700 for $SPX and ~12,000 for $NDX

Once we get there and the FED pivots, fortunes will be made on the other side. Most high growth stocks have been crushed + they are now undervalued, so investors should capture entire biz growth.

Those who have been scaling into the high growth stocks on a weekly basis over the past several weeks must surely be "under water" right now.

However, IMHO another couple of weeks of DCA will be good enough. Highly probable these positions will produce decent long-term IRR.

For the sake of accountability, I got most things right with this downturn; warned about the carnage, turned bearish last autumn, suggested indices would drop 20%+

However, my weekly DCA into the high growth stocks turned out to be premature. My timing could've been better.

Read 4 tweets

Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

Feb 28

1)Portfolio Feb-end -

$ADYEY $CFLT $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $MELI $MNDY $OKTA $PLTR $S $SE $SHOP $SOFI $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $U $ZI

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +709.34% (46.26%pa)
$ACWI +67.37% (9.82%pa)
$SPX +101.50% (13.59%pa)

Contd...

2) YTD return (2022)-

Portfolio +6.20%
$ACWI (-)7.53%
$SPX (-)8.23%

Biggest positions -

1) $MELI 2) $GLBE 3) $OKTA 4) $DDOG 5) $U

Contd....

3) Commentary -

February was another difficult month for the markets as the tightening monetary policy and rising geopolitical tensions (war) rattled stocks.

Fortunately, due to my portfolio hedge and short position in index futures, my portfolio had a good month. A few days..

Read 13 tweets

Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

Feb 19

Sentiment check -

Last year, when I repeatedly warned about a big pullback due to the end of QE, the mood was euphoric and most thought a big decline was impossible.

Now, after 50-80% declines, when I am suggesting scaling into quality growth stocks, the mood is super bearish!

Last year, most were focused on "digital transformation" and they were convinced the high flyers would never go down!

Today, most are convinced that these compounders are "done and dusted" and will never recover!

They are the same businesses, only the price tag has changed!

If you loved a business last year, you should love it even more now because its market cap is now 50-80% lower.

Those who invest at these levels are getting more bang for their buck today.

If the underlying business is sound, the current markdown (sale) is a gift. My 2 cents.

Read 4 tweets

Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

Feb 18

Lot of chatter that the bombed out leaders of this bull-market will "never come back", they will remain "dead money" for years!

It might take several years for some of them to get back to their ATHs *but* the great high growth businesses will be multi-baggers over time.

With so many high quality businesses down 70-80% from their ATHs, just getting back to their old ATHs will make them multi-baggers for those who scale in around these levels.

Over time, these businesses with strong growth will leave the "cheap/mature" companies in the dust.

Remember, the high quality companies which are mission critical are not broken businesses, they are simply temporarily broken stocks (due to tightening liquidity).

When the rate of inflation peaks and Fed backs off, these loathed stocks will recover.

Buy fear, sell euphoria.

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