This is a helpful list to understand what the US is sending to Ukraine, and what it indicates about the state of the war and, crucially what we can expect from the Ukrainian armed forces going forwards.
First, US is defintely upgrading Ukrainian capabilities. The MI 17 helicopters are interesting. Multipurpose so can’t say definitely what their use is. My best guess; to allow the Ukrainians to do more SF work behind Russian lines.
Will we be seeing more of this? itv.com/news/2022-04-0…
Indeed much of the list is basically to allow the Ukrainians to extend the range of their operations and restrict Russian range. The artillery systems (with 40k) rounds, and more switchblades are great range extenders. Heck they are even including lots of range finders
Next, a big stress on protection to minimise Ukrainian casualties. From body armour to NBC protection to counter artillery systems there is stress on protecting Ukrainians. Smart; it’s extremely important to keep Ukrainian casualties down.
And, of course more anti air, but you don’t need to hear more from me about that.
So a clear package to extend Ukrainian ranged attacks while protecting Ukrainian forces. A sign of where they think the war is going. Ukraine will be expecting to be more offensive as the Russians bog down, but in being offensive they don’t want to suffer high casualties
In other words in being offensive the Ukrainians want to be the exact opposite of the Russian army to this point. Smart, incisive, fast moving and effective.
An article discussing why the Biden Administration is now upping the types of support it’s offering Ukraine.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Apr 16
A brief thread on the political economy of the war and why what has happened since the invasion has also destroyed any strategy the Russians might have had. Clearly the Putin government miscalculated on what sanctions Russia will face.
Maybe a greater miscalculation was about how the invasion would basically politically transform Ukraine in NATO/EU eyes to such a degree that they will basically make sure Ukraine gets what it needs economically to function, freeing Ukraine up to fight the war.
Ukraine is now asking for their economy to be kept afloat as they fight the war, and so far the signs (above) are they will get what they need. atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
Read 6 tweets
Apr 14
Bringing this back as the Pentagon briefing being reported by @JackDetsch is shedding even more interesting information on how the Ukrainians are fighting smart and how Russian resupply in Donbas is going.
First; a two birds with one stone Ukrainian operation. Take out a bridge in a key resupply region and destroy a convoy in the process.
And the mud looks to be a real problem for the coming weeks.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 14
Well if the report below is right, the Russians are still a long way from having enough force for a big encirclement of the Donbas (which they might not ever have). Pentagon saying there are only 65 Russian BTGs in Ukraine.
There has been a rather marked decrease in the estimates of Russian BTGs in Ukraine. Last week the spokesmen claimed (it what now looks to be an extraordinary intelligence error) that the Russians had 40 BTGs in the eastern region (basically Kharkiv to Izyum). Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 14
You know whose probably most affected by the sinking of the Moskva? I would say China. Another example of how this war is shaking up the strategic calculus and will, hopefully, make countries think twice about starting wars in the future.
The Moskva was the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and was supposedly well protected by anti-missile systems. Yet the Ukrainians, who have had little experience of anti-ship missiles, have taken out this very valuable Russian asset.
In a nutshell any Chinese naval attempt to attack Taiwan, or indeed a US and allies attempt to send lots of warships near the Chinese coast, would open up the possibilities of mass numbers of Moskva’s.
Read 13 tweets
Apr 13
The reality of redeploying a defeated and exhausted army is now becoming apparent to those who talked about the Russians redeploying their Kyiv forces to the Donbas. It’s now been a weak since Russian forces were almost all out of Kyiv and Chernihiv. forbes.com/sites/joewalsh…
Where are those forces now. Well best intelligence has them on their way from their withdrawal points to around Belgorod, in Russia, for rest and refit. In the US DOD briefing two days ago it was stated that these forces were still on their way.
@TheStudyofWar update last night still has these forces in this rest refit mode.
Read 19 tweets
Apr 12
Ok, been looking forward to the transcript of the DoD briefing since the first notes this afternoon. Seemed that there was some seriously interesting information about the air war. Here is the whole transcript btw. defense.gov/News/Transcrip…
For those who dont follow regularly, I think the airpower story along with logistics are the most important indicators of the war so far. The fact the Ukraine has denied Russia air superiority over the field of battle has been hugely important.
This press conference addressed more air questions than most Ive seen. What did they say? First what are the Russians doing. Well the Russians are attacking two things it seems. First they are trying to hit Ukrainian logistics targets.
Read 11 tweets

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