Some thoughts on the apparent sinking of the Russian Black Sea flagship Moskva: if confirmed, it's likely to go down in history as one of the most audaciously successful attacks in modern naval history. /1
If she's been sunk, the Moskva will be the biggest warship lost since WW2: at 12,490 tons she's bigger than Argentina's General Belgrano, sunk by the Royal Navy in 1982. /2
Apart from the symbolism of her likely loss, she's of great military value as a platform for air defence and missile bombardment of land targets. Her loss is of great significance to both sides. /3
She will likely be irreplaceable - the only ship of her class, built in Ukraine (!) in 1979. Russia can't transfer warships from elsewhere to replace her as Turkey has closed the Bosphorus to military traffic. /4
So how did Ukraine do it? Early reports suggest a brilliantly effective combination of tactics, strategy and the exploitation of its own capabilities, combined with awareness of Russian weaknesses. /5
The Moskva was reportedly struck by Ukrainian-designed Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles. These only entered service in 2019. They apparently hadn't seen action before in this war. /6
According to early reports, the attack took place during a storm. This would have made flying difficult but also helps to conceal shore-based activity from observation. The Russians wouldn't have seen the preparations. /7
Reportedly, the Ukrainians used a Bayraktar TB-2 drone to distract the Moskva. The Ukrainian Navy introduced TB-2s into service in August 2021. /8
In naval use, they can be employed to find enemy ships and relay their positions to coastal missile batteries, as well as carrying out direct attacks using their own payloads. /9 oryxspioenkop.com/2021/08/black-…
It's possible that the Ukrainians used a TB-2 to identify and target the Moskva for the Neptune battery. Or it could have been a sacrificial pawn to distract the cruiser. Or both! (I don't know if the TB-2 survived.) /10
How did the Russians not see the incoming Neptunes? The Moskva has/had a single main air defence radar - a 3P41 Volna phased array to guide S300 missiles. Problem is, it only has a 180 degree field of vision. /11
360 degree coverage is provided by MR-800 Voshkod/Top Pair 3-D long range air search radars for shorter-range SA-8 missiles. But it's likely that in the storm, they couldn't distinguish the sea-skimming Neptunes from the wavetops. /12
So it's likely that the Ukrainians purposefully got the Moskva to point its best radar in the wrong direction while the Neptunes sneaked under the coverage of the other radars. Very smart. /13
As for the Moskva - the Russians say it caught fire and the (surviving?) crew were evacuated. No crew means no damage control, which means an uncontained fire. /14
At the very least, it's likely to have burned down to the waterline, if it hasn't actually sunk. Reports suggest it was listing badly before it was evacuated, so there was probable water ingress. /15
Either way, the total loss of the Moskva as a military asset is highly, highly likely. The man in the Kremlin is having a very bad day today. /end
Russian Ministry of Defence statement: “The cruiser ship Moskva lost its stability when it was towed to the port because of the damage to the ship’s hull that it received during the fire from the detonation of ammunition. In stormy sea conditions, the ship sank.” /18
The Lithuanian Defence Minister, Arvydas Anušauskas, has posted an account of the sinking:
"A SOS signal was given from the Russian cruiser "Moskva" at 1:05; [at] 1:14 the cruiser ship was lying on the side and half an hour later all power went out. ... /19
As of 2 o'clock at night, a Turkish ship evacuated 54 sailors from the cruiser and at around 3 o'clock at midnight Turkey and Romania reported that the ship had completely sank. ... /20
Related Russian personnel losses are not yet known, although there were 485 people in the ship's crew (66 of them soldiers)." /21
To put this in perspective, the Moskva is the biggest Russian naval loss since the accidental sinking of the battleship Novorossiysk at Sevastopol in October 1955 and the first Russian flagship lost since the battleship Knyaz Suvorov at Tsushima in May 1905. /22
One unexpected thing: the sinking has sent a (very much alleged) piece of Jesus' cross to the bottom of the Black Sea, just in time for Easter: tass.com/society/1123855
1/ @konrad_muzyka has published an excellent if rather gloomy thread on the current situation in Ukraine. In the interests of helping it to reach a wider audience, I thought an English translation would be useful.
2/ "I invite you to a short thread about the current situation on the frontline. In short, the situation looks very bad and is not expected to improve in the coming weeks.
3/ There are three reasons for the current state of affairs and in principle there is nothing revelatory here, as the problems on the Ukrainian side have been known for a long time: lack of ammunition, manpower, fortifications.
1/ A memorial to the lost sailors of the Russian missile cruiser Moskva has been unveiled in Sevastopol, two years after the ship's sinking on 13 April 2022. However, many relatives and some of the surviving crew, including the captain, were not invited to the ceremony. ⬇️
2/ The memorial is dedicated to the sailors of the 30th Surface Ship Division. It was erected opposite the place in Sevastopol harbour where Moskva used to dock, and was unveiled on Saturday 13 April 2024. Most of those named on it were Moskva crew members.
3/ Photos of the memorial have recently been published. It comprises a slab two meters high and about five meters long, three stones with the names of 20 of the dead crew members and one other sailor at the foot of the slab, and a stone with an engraved image of the ship.
1/ Units from Russia's 'Afrika Korps' are reportedly to be withdrawn from Africa and sent to Russia's Belgorod region on the border with Ukraine. Its organiser, GRU Lieutenant General Andrei Averyanov, is said to be under a cloud for failing to achieve his goals in Africa. ⬇️
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that preparations are being made to withdraw Afrika Corps detachments and dispatch them to Belgorod, the scene of recent incursions by the Ukraine-supported Russian Volunteer Corps.
3/ The Afrika Korps was created following Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin's death in 2023, as a means of taking over Wagner's operations in Africa and bringing them under the control of the Russian Ministry of Defence.
1/ Russia is considering a return to producing low-quality gasoline to make up for shortages caused by Ukrainian attacks on its oil refineries. However, this is likely to cause damage to vehicles, which owners may find difficult to repair due to a shortage of spare parts. ⬇️
2/ Reuters and the Russian newspaper Kommersant report that the Russian government is considering temporarily suspending fuel environmental standards to enable gasoline to be produced at a lower quality, or to include environmentally damaging octane-boosting additives.
3/ Since 2016, Russia has only allowed the production of at least Euro-5 standard gasoline (a standard set by the European Union which is also in effect in a number of non-EU, Asian and South American countries). Modern vehicles are designed to run only on compliant fuel.
1/ The companies formerly owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin are reportedly undergoing a financial collapse, losing over a billion rubles since his death last year. The Russian Ministry of Defence is no longer buying rotten food from his companies after years of complaints.⬇️
2/ 'We can explain' reports that financial statements for the companies that belonged to Prigozhin – and are mostly now managed by his son Pavel – show that almost all of them fell into the red in 2023. They comprise a mixture of catering and construction firms.
3/ The heart of Prigozhin's business empire was Concord Management and Consulting LLC, the parent organisation of the Concord group of companies, which included catering, construction and media enterprises. CMC LLC and its subsidiaries lost nearly 104 million rubles ($1.1 m).
I had been expecting something like this, but while this is absolutely a legitimate target, many of the workers are de facto enslaved teenage students and African girls who have reportedly been catfished via dating apps. /1