Some thoughts on the apparent sinking of the Russian Black Sea flagship Moskva: if confirmed, it's likely to go down in history as one of the most audaciously successful attacks in modern naval history. /1
If she's been sunk, the Moskva will be the biggest warship lost since WW2: at 12,490 tons she's bigger than Argentina's General Belgrano, sunk by the Royal Navy in 1982. /2
Apart from the symbolism of her likely loss, she's of great military value as a platform for air defence and missile bombardment of land targets. Her loss is of great significance to both sides. /3
She will likely be irreplaceable - the only ship of her class, built in Ukraine (!) in 1979. Russia can't transfer warships from elsewhere to replace her as Turkey has closed the Bosphorus to military traffic. /4
So how did Ukraine do it? Early reports suggest a brilliantly effective combination of tactics, strategy and the exploitation of its own capabilities, combined with awareness of Russian weaknesses. /5
The Moskva was reportedly struck by Ukrainian-designed Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles. These only entered service in 2019. They apparently hadn't seen action before in this war. /6
According to early reports, the attack took place during a storm. This would have made flying difficult but also helps to conceal shore-based activity from observation. The Russians wouldn't have seen the preparations. /7
Reportedly, the Ukrainians used a Bayraktar TB-2 drone to distract the Moskva. The Ukrainian Navy introduced TB-2s into service in August 2021. /8
In naval use, they can be employed to find enemy ships and relay their positions to coastal missile batteries, as well as carrying out direct attacks using their own payloads. /9 oryxspioenkop.com/2021/08/black-…
It's possible that the Ukrainians used a TB-2 to identify and target the Moskva for the Neptune battery. Or it could have been a sacrificial pawn to distract the cruiser. Or both! (I don't know if the TB-2 survived.) /10
How did the Russians not see the incoming Neptunes? The Moskva has/had a single main air defence radar - a 3P41 Volna phased array to guide S300 missiles. Problem is, it only has a 180 degree field of vision. /11
360 degree coverage is provided by MR-800 Voshkod/Top Pair 3-D long range air search radars for shorter-range SA-8 missiles. But it's likely that in the storm, they couldn't distinguish the sea-skimming Neptunes from the wavetops. /12
So it's likely that the Ukrainians purposefully got the Moskva to point its best radar in the wrong direction while the Neptunes sneaked under the coverage of the other radars. Very smart. /13
As for the Moskva - the Russians say it caught fire and the (surviving?) crew were evacuated. No crew means no damage control, which means an uncontained fire. /14
At the very least, it's likely to have burned down to the waterline, if it hasn't actually sunk. Reports suggest it was listing badly before it was evacuated, so there was probable water ingress. /15
Either way, the total loss of the Moskva as a military asset is highly, highly likely. The man in the Kremlin is having a very bad day today. /end
Russian Ministry of Defence statement: “The cruiser ship Moskva lost its stability when it was towed to the port because of the damage to the ship’s hull that it received during the fire from the detonation of ammunition. In stormy sea conditions, the ship sank.” /18
The Lithuanian Defence Minister, Arvydas Anušauskas, has posted an account of the sinking:
"A SOS signal was given from the Russian cruiser "Moskva" at 1:05; [at] 1:14 the cruiser ship was lying on the side and half an hour later all power went out. ... /19
As of 2 o'clock at night, a Turkish ship evacuated 54 sailors from the cruiser and at around 3 o'clock at midnight Turkey and Romania reported that the ship had completely sank. ... /20
Related Russian personnel losses are not yet known, although there were 485 people in the ship's crew (66 of them soldiers)." /21
To put this in perspective, the Moskva is the biggest Russian naval loss since the accidental sinking of the battleship Novorossiysk at Sevastopol in October 1955 and the first Russian flagship lost since the battleship Knyaz Suvorov at Tsushima in May 1905. /22
One unexpected thing: the sinking has sent a (very much alleged) piece of Jesus' cross to the bottom of the Black Sea, just in time for Easter: tass.com/society/1123855
1/ The recent success of Ukrainian FPV drones in shooting down numerous Russian UAVs has prompted concern from Russian observers. They comment that Russian adherence to military "dogmas" mean that effective countermeasures have not been found. ⬇️
2/ Alexander Kharchenko of the 'Witnesses of Bayraktar' Telegram channel highlights how Ukraine is compensating for its shortage of air defence missiles with its much larger supply of drones:
3/ "The enemy is increasing its efforts to destroy our reconnaissance UAVs. I will not give figures, but even within the framework of one unit they can be significant. Previously, a drone could operate for several months, but now...
1/ At least 50,000 Russian convicts have joined the Russian army, with tens of thousands dying in battles in Ukraine. Convicts are still joining, but what makes them want to risk death? Prisoners say that sadistic treatment in penal colonies makes war preferable to prison. ⬇️
2/ Many of the Russian convicts who went to war in Ukraine were imprisoned in the Omsk region, where jails have a reputation for extreme brutality, even by Russian standards. The independent Russian media project 'Window' has been speaking with former inmates.
3/ One prisoner, Andrei, was held for a time in a pre-trial detention centre in Omsk while serving a 14-year sentence for drug offences. The facility, known as SIZO-3, was closed in 2014 after a campaign by human rights activists exposed a litany of brutal treatment. He recalls:
1/ Russian soldiers and their relatives are buying their own body bags, due to a lack of assistance from the Russian Ministry of Defence. A crowd-funded effort in Chelyabinsk has sought to purchase "bags for the 200s" at a cost of 200 rubles ($2.18) each.
2/ Anna Deryabina, a war widow and volunteer from Chelyabinsk, has organised an appeal on the Russian social network VK for funds for body bags. She writes:
3/ "As scary as it is to write about it, we need bags for the 200s.😭😭
For transporting the dead guys.😔
We need a lot.🆘
The cost of one is 200 rubles.
The reality, unfortunately, is that their guys are buying them at their own expense.😔"
1/ Moscow police are to be paid a 50,000 ruble ($558) bounty for each person they 'persuade' to sign up for military service, including immigrants and homeless people. The initiative will create more incentives for corruption for Russia's already notoriously corrupt police. ⬇️
2/ Interior Ministry sources have told the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel that police services in Russia will be incentivised to persuade people to join the armed forces, with bounties of 50,000 rubles in Moscow and 10,000 rubles ($109) in the regions.
3/ According to VChK-OGPU, "the Interior Ministry employees we interviewed were very skeptical about the innovation so far - there are no known cases of anyone receiving such a bonus."
1/ Russian conscripts are reportedly being forced to sign contracts to become professional soldiers and fight in the Kursk region. The Russian army appears to be evading a law prohibiting conscripts without training and less than 4 months' service from participating in combat. ⬇️
2/ ASTRA reports that conscripts from the 290th Missile Regiment, based in Russia's Mari El Republic, are being made to sign contracts. Parents are upset, but appear to be powerless.
3/ The mother of one conscript says: "My son called and said that the command had already compiled lists for sending conscripts to the Kursk region. They answered all their questions - this is Russian territory and you must defend it. He has been serving since May of this year.
1/ One of the suspects in the murder by torture of the so-called "Donbas Cowboy", self-proclaimed communist and Texan Russell Bentley, has been released. His widow Ludmilla warns that people might think that "the Russian army is a bunch of criminals who do whatever they want". ⬇️
2/ According to Ludmilla, one of the defendants in the case who is accused of concealing a particularly serious crime has been released from custody, while the other three remain in detention. The man is accused of ensuring that "as little as possible was left of Russell".
3/ Bentley travelled to Donetsk in 2014 to fight on the Russian side. He had previously been a marijuana activist and smuggler in the US, as well as a communist activist. After spending several years with a volunteer battalion, he married Ludmilla and became a video blogger.