Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

You know whose probably most affected by the sinking of the Moskva? I would say China. Another example of how this war is shaking up the strategic calculus and will, hopefully, make countries think twice about starting wars in the future.

https://twitter.com/biz_ukraine_mag/status/1514384387625861127

The Moskva was the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and was supposedly well protected by anti-missile systems. Yet the Ukrainians, who have had little experience of anti-ship missiles, have taken out this very valuable Russian asset.

In a nutshell any Chinese naval attempt to attack Taiwan, or indeed a US and allies attempt to send lots of warships near the Chinese coast, would open up the possibilities of mass numbers of Moskva’s.

Yes these fleets will probably operate their anti missile systems better than the Russians. But in the end it’s much cheaper and effective to have many more missiles than ships: so missile numbers can overwhelm defensive measures.

As we are learning about the real vulnerability of tanks on land to hand held or UAV systems, so we are learning about how easy it is to take out a major warship. A terrible but perhaps a necessary lesson to restrict war like choices going forward

Btw; both China and Taiwan are mass producing anti ship missiles. Ships approaching their coasts in war stand the chance of being targeted by many more missiles than they could possibly defend against. taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4290059

Moskva now confirmed as sunk, not just damaged. The flagship of the Black Sea fleet gone, almost certainly because of being hit by one anti-ship missile setting off a series of catastrophic secondary explosions from its own ammunition.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1514694135004999689?s=20&t=T0ELrIWJDuLQer9mSyQrgQ

Moskva sunk by storm Ukraine

Final comment on the Moskva thinking because it encapsulates what is now apparent. We have one military (Ukr) that is clearly learning, thinking and acting. It took a while, but it came up with an plan to take out the flagship of the Russian Navy. It adjusted and was effective

Otoh, we have another military that seems to be repeating basic mistakes that it has committed throughout; poor logistics, no ability to adjust to an inability to use airpower properly, drip feeding forces into too many combat areas.

So the thinking of the Moskva is important as an event, but its perhaps even more important in what it indicates about how Ukraine and Russia are conducting this war.

sinking

Reports this morning that Moskva might have been hit by two Ukrainian Neptune missiles, not one. From @thetimes