In our new article by Post-Soviet Affairs with Kirill Petrov we discover a remarkable continuity b/w Soviet and Putin-era elites. We analyzed Putin's top 100 elites and found that the share of those with Soviet nomenklatura ties NOW (30 years after the USSR collapse) is ~60% 🧵1/
Most of these 60% come from the middle and lower, and not the highest, Soviet nomenklatura ranks. The share of people with a nomenklatura past is much (TWICE!) higher than the share of siloviki.2/
Where some rotation of elites did take place, it happened primarily through the "infusion" of siloviki into Russia’s power vertical. Hence, Russia’s top elites represent a "nice" combo of the individuals with nomenklatura and siloviki backgrounds. 3/
These findings have important policy implications for today's moment. In fact, Russia’s democratic transition in the early 1990s may be, to a large extent, described as a revolt of lower ranks of the Soviet nomenklatura against its older top ranks.4/
Rather than transitioning from one system to another, it was a resolution of an intra-system crisis that eventually and logically led to the restoration of a system of authoritarian power. This helps understand why the Putin regime quickly reinstated many Soviet practices,... 5/
...why sanctions have failed to split the elites, and why many members of the power vertical comply with the dynamics of Russia's re-autocratization.
Please message me in case of your interest - I am happy to send a copy! 6/6 doi.org/10.1080/106058…
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BETTER THAN IT COULD BE, BUT WORSE THAN IT SHOULD BE. Quick thoughts on 6 months of Russia's war in Ukraine. 1) This is likely a protracted war for years to come that will go on until Putin's death. It's now clear that it did not begin in 2022, but in 2014 or even in 2003.
And it might continue with periods of recess and escalation until Putin's death, at least. Contrary to the popular idea, the problem is not only Putin, but the Russian elites and society, the lack of fundamental changes in their thinking after 1990.
Having analyzed the composition and views of the Russian elites since the early 1990s & societal behavior, I am convinced that post-imperial revanchism of post-Soviet Russia was in some shape or form historically inevitable.
ЛУЧШЕ, ЧЕМ МОГЛО БЫ БЫТЬ, НО ХУЖЕ, ЧЕМ ДОЛЖНО БЫТЬ. Наблюдения по итогам 6 месяцев войны. 1) Вероятно, война затяжная, будет идти до смерти Путина. Она началась не в 2022, а в 2014 или даже в 2003. И будет с периодами затишья и эскалации идти до смерти Путина, как минимум.
Вопреки популярной идее, проблема не только в Путине, а в элитах и обществе РФ, отсутствии радикальных изменений в их мышлении после 1990 г. Анализируя состав и взгляды элит с начала 1990х, поведение общества, убеждена,что реваншизм постсоветской России был исторически неизбежен.
2) Запад поддерживает Украину, его единство в этом вопросе беспрецедентно для последних лет, и это прекрасно. Но пока недостаточно для радикального перелома ситуации (возврата к рубежам хотя бы на 23/02/2022), уверенности, что Запад сможет поддержку осуществлять годами, пока нет.
Коллеги, в Post-Soviet Affairs наконец-то вышла наша важная для понимания происходящего статья с Кириллом Петровым!
Почему происходит ре-автократизация политической системы России? Почему демократические силы в России так быстро потерпели поражение? 1/ tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…
Наш ответ:в России после распада СССР фактически (и до сих пор) не произошло смены элит! Мы проанализировали бэкграунд топ-100 путинских элит и выяснили, что доля элит с номенклатурным происхождением СЕГОДНЯ (30 лет после распада СССР) составляет примерно 60% современной элиты.2/
Большинство из этих 60% происходят из средних и нижних, а не высших советских номенклатурных чинов. Доля лиц с номенклатурным прошлым в элитах Путина значительно (в 2 раза!) выше, чем доля силовиков (о которых уже много написано).3/
Here is a friend's attempt to talk to her Russia-based father about the Bucha atrocities. Note how polar opposite her father's propaganda-driven vision of the world is!
“I tried talking to my father about Bucha, where his family home, paralyzed sister and a brother still are. 1/
...His brother does not answer phone for many days. Dad gets very nervous when I talk about the executions of civilians, his mind refuses to accept it. I also didn’t want to send him photos -many resources don’t work in RU anymore, and I am also worried for his health. 2/
Here is his version🤦♀️: “DAUGHTER! The leadership of the UKR junta is REALLY cornered. Unlike you, they know their defeat is inevitable. To avoid the inevitable,they persistently demand from their sponsors either CLOSURE OF THE SKY, or transfer of AIRPLANES AND ROCKETS to them.3/
This widely-read article by a RU journalist claims that Western sanctions have so far consolidated RU elites. It seems to imply that w/o sanctions once the war started business and officials would have split from regime and condemn the war. That’s not the case, let me explain: 1/
Such conclusions fundamentally misread the nature of the Russian regime. 1) Rally ‘round the flag is a common occurrence during the early days of war. In RU, neither elites nor population expected the war (this was decided by Putin and very narrow circle), 2/
so at first the elites were confused, not knowing how to react. Then the Kremlin sent a signal, propaganda intensified, and war support grew among population and elites. This is current status quo. 3/
In my new article I argue that Russians’ support for UKR war (50-60%) is not due to lack of information only. People who try to reach out to Russians often encounter direct refusal to believe evidence of atrocities committed by RU soldiers in Ukraine 1/ nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-…
even when directly provided evidence of it—even when such information is presented by their blood relatives. It is common for Russians to deny and refuse to believe these facts, instead claiming that such facts/photos/videos are fake. 2/
This phenomenon is known as cognitive dissonance. When people encounter info that challenges their preexisting beliefs, it leads to a cognitive dissonance, a mental discomfort, which people want to avoid. Hence, they tend to reject information that creates unpleasant feelings. 3/