Whelp, it looks like the Putin Regime has realized it can't hide the humiliating loss of the Moskva and now Putin has decided to make lemonade out of the lemon flavored s--tburger Ukraine force fed his regime. 🧵
This may fix the short term Russian manpower problem.
It will make the corruption-power sharing problems much worse for Putin as he tries to eat the corruption-based income streams of the Oligarchs & Generals to fund the war.
Those guys have no future in a wartime 'North Koreanized' Putin Regime & they know it.
This is where
2/
... the internal contradictions of the Russian Kleptocracy will start to tear the Putin Regime apart.
Kleptocracies are about money over power.
Thieves don't stop stealing while there is a war on.
3/
Putin will have to start imprisoning/killing domestic opponents in the Oligarchy to fund his invasion of Ukraine.
Without the fair maid of money, the Kleptocracy start to will eat itself & then, eventually, Putin with a '9mm retirement.'
4/
The removal of Putin without a vetted successor will result in a power vacuum interregnum where we will see the Russian Army repeat it's 1917 behavior of simply going home and shooting officers who get in the way.
Putin has attached to himself a cult of personality like the Czar.
The rural Russian troops who have been brainwashed by Putin's agitprop simply are not going to fight for whomever takes Putin out.
That is going to make the succession fight confused, protracted & bloody.
6/
First Belarus & then Poland overrun with Russian refugees - 'cause Ukraine will be busy shooting Russians who try - is not on anyone's player card right now.
However, it is the logical outcome of Putin's pending '9mm resignation notice.'
7/
There is one other thing we can be certain regards these pending events.
It will be a "Complete Surprise" for the Western intelligence agencies because the top guys in them are busy telling the elected officials what they want to hear & not what their analysts see.🤦🤦♂️
8/End
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I simply didn't expect the LNR, DNR, & Russian Merc low standards of combat effectiveness to be the entire Russian Army level including the Regime Security units.
It isn't hard to run a truck around a motor pool once a month to see that they don't get sun bleached to death.
2/
Yet the Russian Army let that happen to $15 million anti-aircraft missile complexes.
Covid-19 lockdown political blowback is arriving at gale force combined with the bad economic times of collapsed world supply chains & inflation.
Overturning lockdown policies & specifically making illegal the public health tool of firing people for refusing to take vaccines
2/
...as a fundamental civil right, and firing public health officials who advocated that policy as horrible examples for the future, will be on the top of the populist agenda.
And note:
This prediction doesn't mean I endorse this on-coming reality.
3/
This was recognized after the class was built, but not retrofitted.
3rd, Russian Navy damage control was hollowed out by Putin Regime corruption. The water was about 50F at 1 AM with gundecked survival gear & life rafts etc when the Neptun salvo flew in.
This is a question worth addressing vis-a'-vis Russian Armor & convoy tactics in Ukraine.
This will be a compare & contrast thread 🧵which is more @The_Tech_Son & @Chieftain_armor lane than mine, but I'll try & muddle through by giving visual examples 1/
As a member of the Association of Old Crows I listen to it's podcasts. This one which came out yesterday is a cracker jack look at the fight for the electromagnetic spectrum in Ukraine six weeks
AOC host Ken Miller welcomes Col. Jeffery Fischer, USAF (Ret), to discuss current developments in Ukraine and how the conflict may change how we think about fighting in the electromagnetic spectrum.
2/
Col. Fischer is a 30-year Military Aviator and Electronic Warfare Officer with seven combat tours in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Balkans. He flew both the Air Force's EC-130H Compass Call and the EA-6B Prowler while on a joint exchange with the US Navy.
3/
Look at the 8-wheel truck at the left side of the bridge in the video.
It has a folded crane.
The Russians actually have a crane truck at the right place setting up to help get the truck w/the wheel off the side of the bridge needing to be recovered