Whelp, it looks like the Putin Regime has realized it can't hide the humiliating loss of the Moskva and now Putin has decided to make lemonade out of the lemon flavored s--tburger Ukraine force fed his regime. 🧵

This may fix the short term Russian manpower problem.

1/
It will make the corruption-power sharing problems much worse for Putin as he tries to eat the corruption-based income streams of the Oligarchs & Generals to fund the war.

Those guys have no future in a wartime 'North Koreanized' Putin Regime & they know it.

This is where
2/
... the internal contradictions of the Russian Kleptocracy will start to tear the Putin Regime apart.

Kleptocracies are about money over power.

Thieves don't stop stealing while there is a war on.

3/
Putin will have to start imprisoning/killing domestic opponents in the Oligarchy to fund his invasion of Ukraine.

Without the fair maid of money, the Kleptocracy start to will eat itself & then, eventually, Putin with a '9mm retirement.'

4/
The removal of Putin without a vetted successor will result in a power vacuum interregnum where we will see the Russian Army repeat it's 1917 behavior of simply going home and shooting officers who get in the way.

5/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interregn…
Putin has attached to himself a cult of personality like the Czar.

The rural Russian troops who have been brainwashed by Putin's agitprop simply are not going to fight for whomever takes Putin out.

That is going to make the succession fight confused, protracted & bloody.

6/
First Belarus & then Poland overrun with Russian refugees - 'cause Ukraine will be busy shooting Russians who try - is not on anyone's player card right now.

However, it is the logical outcome of Putin's pending '9mm resignation notice.'

7/
There is one other thing we can be certain regards these pending events.

It will be a "Complete Surprise" for the Western intelligence agencies because the top guys in them are busy telling the elected officials what they want to hear & not what their analysts see.🤦🤦‍♂️

8/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 17
This is where most knowledgeable of Russian Army folks are.🧵👇👇

I was on a Ukrainian diaspora email list watching Donbas fighting from 2014 to 2022, so what we are seeing I saw a few times.

The general armored unit skills/signals collapse & 75% crewing is my What The Hell?
I simply didn't expect the LNR, DNR, & Russian Merc low standards of combat effectiveness to be the entire Russian Army level including the Regime Security units.

It isn't hard to run a truck around a motor pool once a month to see that they don't get sun bleached to death.

2/
Yet the Russian Army let that happen to $15 million anti-aircraft missile complexes.

Normal Russian trucks never had a chance.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Apr 16
Whatever you think of Marine Le Pen's politics, this is a very smart political move that will net her a lot more than 15,000 votes in France.

Especially when you count the families of those fired French healthcare workers

Macron & the EU establishment should be very worried
1/
Covid-19 lockdown political blowback is arriving at gale force combined with the bad economic times of collapsed world supply chains & inflation.

Overturning lockdown policies & specifically making illegal the public health tool of firing people for refusing to take vaccines
2/
...as a fundamental civil right, and firing public health officials who advocated that policy as horrible examples for the future, will be on the top of the populist agenda.

And note:
This prediction doesn't mean I endorse this on-coming reality.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Apr 16
Moskva thread highlighting how the internal contradictions of the Putin Regime killed her crew 🧵

First, there are a lot of reasons this appears to on-point.👇

1/
Next, this 20 tweet thread goes deeply into the flawed fighter fighting design of the Slava class that the Moskva was a part of.

Short form: There was no centralized electronic fire fighting system in the original design & no refit to get one.

2/
This was recognized after the class was built, but not retrofitted.

3rd, Russian Navy damage control was hollowed out by Putin Regime corruption. The water was about 50F at 1 AM with gundecked survival gear & life rafts etc when the Neptun salvo flew in.

See the photo👇
3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 15
This is a question worth addressing vis-a'-vis Russian Armor & convoy tactics in Ukraine.

This will be a compare & contrast thread 🧵which is more @The_Tech_Son & @Chieftain_armor lane than mine, but I'll try & muddle through by giving visual examples
1/
,@The_Tech_Son gives a video example of a Ukrainian ambush of a Russian Armored column here as an example of "Russian Tankers doing it wrong."
2/
And he follows it up here with a photograph of a Russian Armored column pulled over and makes a comment on what he isn't seeing
3/
Read 7 tweets
Apr 15
As a member of the Association of Old Crows I listen to it's podcasts. This one which came out yesterday is a cracker jack look at the fight for the electromagnetic spectrum in Ukraine six weeks

From the Crows' Nest
Learning Lessons from Ukraine
link.chtbl.com/tpt7edGz
1/
into this latest Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The AOC into for the podcast:

AOC host Ken Miller welcomes Col. Jeffery Fischer, USAF (Ret), to discuss current developments in Ukraine and how the conflict may change how we think about fighting in the electromagnetic spectrum.

2/
Col. Fischer is a 30-year Military Aviator and Electronic Warfare Officer with seven combat tours in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Balkans. He flew both the Air Force's EC-130H Compass Call and the EA-6B Prowler while on a joint exchange with the US Navy.
3/
Read 5 tweets
Apr 15
Look at the 8-wheel truck at the left side of the bridge in the video.

It has a folded crane.

The Russians actually have a crane truck at the right place setting up to help get the truck w/the wheel off the side of the bridge needing to be recovered

The Russians are learning
The left truck in this picture has a folded crane.

2/
This is a similar western crane made by HIAB painted black.
3/
Read 5 tweets

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