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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Apr 17, 2022 β€’ 8 tweets β€’ 3 min read β€’ Read on X
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This is where most knowledgeable of Russian Army folks are.πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡

I was on a Ukrainian diaspora email list watching Donbas fighting from 2014 to 2022, so what we are seeing I saw a few times.

The general armored unit skills/signals collapse & 75% crewing is my What The Hell?
I simply didn't expect the LNR, DNR, & Russian Merc low standards of combat effectiveness to be the entire Russian Army level including the Regime Security units.

It isn't hard to run a truck around a motor pool once a month to see that they don't get sun bleached to death.

2/
Yet the Russian Army let that happen to $15 million anti-aircraft missile complexes.

Normal Russian trucks never had a chance.

3/
I've known since 2018 the Russians in Syria had small drone problems.

But, goodness, Russia getting butt r--ed without lube by Ukrainian DJI drones skillfully directing artillery to get smart missile class accuracy was not something I expected in
4/
... my 2022 playing cards.

Another thing not in my 2022 playing cards was the "Emperor had no cloths" moment with Western intelligence over missing Russia's lack of mechanized logistics from 1943-2022.
5/
The complete lack of pre-cast concrete structures of any sort in the Russian Army was another one of those "What the Hell" moments in Ukraine.

Russia's Kleptocracy is too corrupt to have a vendor base of them.
6/
And my complete disgust with Western leadership for pretending not to know about LOGCAP, contractor logistic services, and private military corporation options to support Ukraine despite decades their use.
7/
The reality of 2022 has simply exceeded 2019, 2020 and 2021 combined.

I really don't want to be surprised by reality again.

8/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 14
USN flag ranks & their staffers have been fighting the idea of distant economic blockade of China tooth an nail as a response to China invading Taiwan for 30 years.

They really don't want a recent precedent of a successful blockade...

1/3
...to prevent their Carrier fleet Pickett's charge into the South China Sea.

Specifically distant blockade as a strategy against China makes having/regaining 100 Cold War era

2/3 Image
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...frigates and destroyer tenders supporting them on distant blockade stations outside the 2nd Island chain, "budget relevant" for a military strategy of conducting three years of blockade enforcement.

3/3 Image
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Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 14
The high death rate of Russian troops due to a lack of casualty evacuation was highly visible in March-September 2022.

I've documented this consistently, repeatedly and at great technical depth.

Russia Strong "slopaganda" has buried it over and over.

1/
I was calling out two dead for every three Russian wounded in Sept 2022 as the more realistic Russian casualty ratio in Ukraine because it was taking more than 24 hours to get to the equivalent of a battalion aid station.

2/3
I asked @grok to summarize my receipts on Russian casualty ratios since February 2022, which are clipped below:

3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 1
This fact:

"Oil revenue collapsed to roughly 5% of the national budget, down from 32% the prior year. Taxes increased over 60%. Food prices climbed at least 50%. ATMs across major cities are running out of cash."

Underlines a major point of mine. 🧡

1/
Since Clausewitz, the West recognized "war as an extension of politics."

The corollary of that is "politics is an extension of money."

Iran doesn't have any money, thanks to hyper-inflation and now an 84% reduction in oil revenue.

2/ Image
The failed January 2026 Iranian uprising kicked off because hyperinflation caused massive food insecurity that required the mass murder of 30,000 (+) Iranian protestors to suppress.

The 12-day war and the current one have made Iranian hyper-inflation far worse.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 31
Not for US aircraft. ⬇⬇️

Hardened aircraft shelters are against the secular budget religion of US flying service flag ranks.

Not that other Western air forces are any better.

1/
The Chief of Air Staff RAAF 12 months ago gave a lecture trashing HAS as a bad idea and how "dispersal is better."

Dispersal didn't help USAF E-3G's in Saudi Arabia because they had nowhere to disperse too.

Places like Italy are politically off limits.
2/ Image
The RAAF CoS appeared to believe that every HAS was like the cheapest Iraqi HAS that we could crack with a single BLU-109/B, not the serious HAS needing multiple BLU-109/B down the same hole.

All of China's HAS built since 1991 are of the 2nd variety or are 'super-hardened' deep tunnels.

3/3Image
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Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 29
War is a question of interests, not legality. Iran with, it's support of the October 7th attack, kicked off an existential war with Israel for the latter to prevent Iran from getting the A-bomb.

Israel won't survive as a nation after three Hiroshima class nukes...

Iran War🧡
1/
- riding ballistic warheads in a saturation missile attack - slam into its major cities.

The Trump Administration agreed with Israel on Iranian nukes both in the 12-day war and with the current war.

2/
The Iranian use of a space launcher as an ICBM against Diego Garcia made the current Iran war an existential one for the USA, given the EMP threat Iran represents to the unhardened American power grid.

Imagine the population of the American west - especially Las Vegas! -
3/
Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 27
How the mighty RAND has fallen.

Anyone claiming Iran will survive long term without explaining how Iran recovers from currency hyperinflation IN THE MIDDLE OF A WAR marks themselves as incompetent yo-yo's.

1/3
bylinesupplement.com/p/why-the-iran…
Hand waving, "They will use ForEx from oil and barter instead of the rial" is ignoring what happened during January 2026.

I dare anyone to do a word search at that link for the text strings "hyperinflation," "Rial" or "foreign exchange."

None are present.

2/
The Iran questions at hand are as follows:
1. Will the Regime fall via a controlled air campaign driven collapse, or
2. After a protracted Syria style civil war with 6 or 7 figure #'s murdered by IRGC thugs, &
3. Will Iran destroy the Gulf's power & H2O supply while dying?

3/3
Read 4 tweets

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