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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Apr 17, 2022 โ€ข 8 tweets โ€ข 3 min read โ€ข Read on X
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This is where most knowledgeable of Russian Army folks are.๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡

I was on a Ukrainian diaspora email list watching Donbas fighting from 2014 to 2022, so what we are seeing I saw a few times.

The general armored unit skills/signals collapse & 75% crewing is my What The Hell?
I simply didn't expect the LNR, DNR, & Russian Merc low standards of combat effectiveness to be the entire Russian Army level including the Regime Security units.

It isn't hard to run a truck around a motor pool once a month to see that they don't get sun bleached to death.

2/
Yet the Russian Army let that happen to $15 million anti-aircraft missile complexes.

Normal Russian trucks never had a chance.

3/
I've known since 2018 the Russians in Syria had small drone problems.

But, goodness, Russia getting butt r--ed without lube by Ukrainian DJI drones skillfully directing artillery to get smart missile class accuracy was not something I expected in
4/
... my 2022 playing cards.

Another thing not in my 2022 playing cards was the "Emperor had no cloths" moment with Western intelligence over missing Russia's lack of mechanized logistics from 1943-2022.
5/
The complete lack of pre-cast concrete structures of any sort in the Russian Army was another one of those "What the Hell" moments in Ukraine.

Russia's Kleptocracy is too corrupt to have a vendor base of them.
6/
And my complete disgust with Western leadership for pretending not to know about LOGCAP, contractor logistic services, and private military corporation options to support Ukraine despite decades their use.
7/
The reality of 2022 has simply exceeded 2019, 2020 and 2021 combined.

I really don't want to be surprised by reality again.

8/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 21
Nothing says hyperinflation like a ten million currency unit banknote.

The US and Western nations need to be three weeks into planning for relief and stability operations to prevent mass starvation in Iran after the Mullah Regime goes down.

After the Mullah's๐Ÿงต
1/
The horrid impending humanitarian disaster reality for Iran is the current regime is a dead man walking because of hyperinflation.

Iran lacks the administrative ability to replace the current hyperinflated currency in the traditional manner...

2/
...of a three day closing of the banks and handing out new note for old.

In addition, the close down of the internet for security reasons combined with the striking of Iranian bank data centers means there are no operable credit or debit cards.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 17
The US-Israeli air campaign against Iran is following Warden's "Five Rings" system strategy.

Mullahs & IRGC leaders are inthe dead center of the 5-rings.

The Basij are usually considered "fielded forces" by analysts who don't understand the role of Regime Security Forces in a totalitarian regime.

1/Image
Regime Security Forces live in the "System Essentials" ring of a totalitarian government as they control the communications and information in a totalitarian society as a part of their anti-coup mission.

2/ Image
The fact that any major leadership[ meeting of the IRGC or Basij is catching several smart bombs addresses both of the "inner rings."

3/
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 17
People really don't understand how shutting down the internet has flatlined the Iranian economy.

There are no credit card transactions
No electronic bank transfers
No ATM transactions

1/
All the usual electronic traffic between residential & supermarket banks branches to main branches has to be done by paper, if it is done at all.

You cannot do "Just-in-time" inventory management without the internet.

2/ Image
The Mullah shutdown of the internet as a security measure means the "Velocity of Money" in the Iranian economy has tubed.

This will bring on more of the economic hyper-inflation-food insecurity issues in Iran that set off the Jan 2026 insurrection.

"Dead Regime Walking."
3/3 Image
Image
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Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 15
If Israeli Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) drones are killing Shaheed-136 launch crews.

They are not killing Basij regime security force checkpoints.

The US-Israeli air forces will need to inflict at _least_ 200K casualties to Iranian regime security forces...
1/3
...for a successful civilian insurrection to have a good chance of success.

Even if there are ~200 checkpoint drone strikes per day inflicting 5 casualties each. That is only 1,000 a day, AKA 200 days.

2/3 Image
BLUF:

US-Israeli airpower has to increase the Regime Security Force casualty rates to ~6,700 a day to end the air campaign in another 30 days.

B-52 & B-1's playing 'loitering bomb trucks' can do that, with less restrictive rules of engagement resulting in collateral damage
3/3 Image
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Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 12
What jumps put for me looking at this report of the Mullah's decamping to Mashad is the US-Israeli intelligence had to know as soon as it started.

I believe that the steaming of the USS Ford through the Suez Canal happened because of this.

Collapse ๐Ÿงต
1/
If the Mullah's command was moving.

Their ability to command drone and missile strikes on the USS Ford would be minimal, if only to avoid US-Israeli radio-direction finding.

Mashad is also very convenient place to run away from Iran if the government falls everywhere else.
2/ Image
The Mullah's are so afraid of getting the "Maduro Treatment" by US Special Forces in Mashad that they have blocked the local airport runways with cars

3/
Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 9
The problem with this thought is the Iranian drones being fired now are the uber sophisticated Russian-guilt Geran using radio mesh and cell phone sim card link video-navigation.

1/3
They are flying lower and more sophisticated trajectories taking advantage of radar shadows from oil infrastructure in the Gulf to prevent the generation of good intercept tracks.

Gun armed ships and attack helicopters low amongst oil rigs are the best play here.

2/3
It is only a matter of time until Geran/Shaheed FPV motherships are being fired by the IRGC at Gulf Oil infrastructure using Gulf Cell phone networks as video data links.

3/3
Read 4 tweets

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