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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Apr 17 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Well this is interesting. Ukrainian armed forces report that Ukrainian forces are pushing out from Kharkiv. This would be very threatening to Russian communications, logistics coming out of Belgorod. Take a look below where Bazaliyaka is in particular (next tweet)
Bazaliyaka (red marker) is on the road heading right to the crucial road systems from Belogorod to Izyum. This is opening up a possibly major problem for the Russian army. If this can be confirmed, its something to watch closely.
If it helps, here is a map with Belgorod included as well--might make its strategic location even more apparent. Its basically directly between Belgorod and Izyum.
clarification--report is coming from a reporter who quoted a Kharkiv official, not the Ukrainian armed forces.
Someone made this point-its true, I'm looking for any news of a Ukrainian move in this area. It would fit into their earlier, very successful way of war which was about cutting supply, and its an obvious target with the Russians coming down from Belgorod.
Another report.
A counterattack into the Russian supply lines, after letting the Russians to get strung out reaching down to Izyum, is exactly the Ukrainian way of war as practiced so successfully in the Battle of Kyiv, which I laid out in the Atlantic article.
The Ukrainians held Kharkiv, which was the base of any counterattack (point 2). They allowed the Russians to expose their communications/logistics beyond that city by letting them push forces down towards Izyum (point 3). Now they are attacking those lines (point 4).
The whole article is here, where I go into the points in more detail. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
A number of indications tonight that the Russian offensive out of Izyum is struggling.
The Donbas seems to be developing more like Battle of Kyiv round 2, than an example of the Russian army learning and adapting. Would be nice if it ends the same way.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 19
A conclusion from this is that Scholz thinks Putin stays in power for a while, sanctions will be phased out, and the Russian-German relationship will become closer. The point about Germany not 'going it alone' is so incoherent that he's grasping at ways not to help Ukraine now.
Germany is not being asked to go it alone, it’s being asked not to lag behind so much. Big difference
This is what I dont get. The European countries most supportive of Ukraine are all closer to Germany, and economically larger when combined. Scandinavian countries, Poland, Baltic states, Czech, Slovakia, etc. This is an area of huge importance to Germany.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 19
Speaking of logistics, this is what seems so poorly conceived in the Russian operations, they are funnelling the supplies for 5 or so different advances all through one series of roads they don’t safely control and which all converge in one town, which is vulnerable
Here are some recent maps.
Here is the key transport convergence on the town of Kupiansk (circled in black) Ukrainian forces are actually not that far away (20kms or so) if they can utilise the ranged weapons they have been asking for. Image
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 19
Interesting comparison by @paulkrugman which points out the great problem the Russians would face if they make major advances. With an army the size of Robert E Lee’s in terms of soldiers, how does is secure any territory it seizes (or its own vast rear areas)
Seems that the Russian army is built to take objectives but is poorly conceived to take them. Even then it looks very small to take significant objectives if the intelligence estimates are right.
The @isw in its most recent update of just a few hours ago also thinks the Russians will struggle making significant advances with the army Russia now has in Ukraine. Image
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 18
Final comment on this from a numerical perspective, as things are quite confused now. If this intelligence is right, that Russia has 76 BTGs in Ukraine, it has to be said its not alot to launch a major offensive.
To cover everything from Kharkiv to Kherson, leaving out Mariupol, Russia has only 64 BTG, as the Pentagon also estimates 12 Russian BTG are tied down with the Mariupol siege.
64 BTG at maximum strength could be 64k soldiers--though its hard to imagine that this is actually the numbers of soldiers the Russians have considering that many of these units have been fighting for 7 weeks now.
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 18
Some really interesting evidence from the Pentagon briefing today as reported by @JackDetsch which sheds light on how the Russian build up is going, how many losses they have suffered, and the ongoing battle of the Donbas.
First, The Russian build-up now is now occurring. Before today the number of Russian BTGs the Pentagon was estimating were in Ukraine had actually dropped significantly. Now we have a hard number 76, 11 of which entered Ukr over the past days.
Much of these new formations, with artillery, are heading for the Donbas. Other hard figure, there are 22 BTGs undergoing refit outside of Ukraine (mostly one assumes from the Kyiv assault)
Read 11 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 18
Im no Russia expert, but I have a hypothesis that when policy makers and politicians in Russia publicly speak about Ukraine or the ‘west’ today, they are actually holding a mirror to Russia and describing what they see at home.
Take this interview with Sergei Karaganov, a major figure in what passes for foreign policy analysis under Putin. globalaffairs.ru/articles/proti…
It’s classic projection. Ukraine, which is actually performing so effectively in the war, is shown as a weak state, with a disorganised and useless chief executive which has suffered from 30 years of misrule. Image
Read 12 tweets

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