Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Apr 17, 2022 15 tweets 9 min read Read on X
1/ My friend Jon Haidt @JonHaidt has written the MOST important article you can read today...

"Why the Past 10 Years of American Life Have Been Uniquely Stupid––it's not just a phase" ImageImage
2/ He begins by analogy to parable of Tower of Babel

Noting THEY were fragmented by different languages

While WE for causes he diagnoses are...

"disoriented, unable to speak the same language or recognize the same truth. We are cut off from one another and from the past." Image
3/ Haidt describes what I like to call
a "directional arrow of progress"

of EVER more cooperation at EVER larger scales

He invokes excellent must-read Robert Wright book NON-ZERO @robertwrighter (also author of Moral Animal) which reminds me of (Sims') Will Wright illustration ImageImage
4/ Here is Haidt on this directional arrow of progress toward non-zero cooperation Image
5/ Haidt notes
"The high point of techno-democratic optimism was arguably 2011, a yr that began w/the Arab Spring + ended w/ the global Occupy movement. And when Google Translate became available on virtually all smartphones making '11 the yr humanity rebuilt the Tower of Babel. ImageImage
6/ Haidt notes in the BEGINNING social media helped maintain social ties (and was virtue)––but THEN

as people felt comfortable sharing with strangers + co's––it became performative signaling + amplifying and exploitative. Image
7/ "This new game encouraged DISHONESTY and mob dynamics"

"We might have just handed a 4-year old a loaded weapon. ImageImage
8/ "It was just this kind of twitchy + explosive spread of anger 😡that Madison had tried to protect us from in drafting the Constitution. The Framers were excellent social psychologists. The KEY🔑was to build in mechanisms to slow things down, cool passions, require compromise" ImageImage
9/ Haidt then turns to the EROSION of TRUST

He invokes @mgurri the ex CIA analyst who predicted our fracturing (even without Russian + Chinese agents making it worse" ImageImage
10/ Haidt then turns to the importance of NORMS + INSTITUTIONS for error-correction

+ the ease today of tribes silencing not just critics but their own members from dissent––creating echo chamber + bubbles of homogenous belief–– & diversity breakdowns ImageImage
11/ Haidt again quoting Gurri

"The digital revolution has shattered that mirror, and now the public inhabits those broken pieces of glass. The public is highly fragmented + it’s basically mutually hostile––mostly people yelling at each other + living in bubbles Image
12/ Haidt notes both the LEFT + RIGHT in different ways have been handed darts making each side STUPIDER

and leading to
CANCEL CULTURE +
DEPLATFORMING +
SOCIAL DEATH

for anyone who doesn't self-censor or silence to as @pmarca would say "support the current thing" ImageImage
13/ Haidt cites awesome work from @noUpside Renée DiResta on DISINFORMATION

We already know Russia + China have exploited social media as a weapon turning our own technology + open systems on OURSELVES (the way hijackers turned our own planes on our own buildings)... ImageImage
14/ SO WHAT?

What do we DO about it?

@JonHaidt gives several prescriptions––

some touch on continuing phenomena he + @glukianoff first identified in "Coddling of The American Mind"–– on Gen Z not knowing how to resolve conflict, needing authorities + needing to just get OUT ImageImage
15/ Here is full MUST-READ piece by my friend @JonHaidt on democracy after our disintegration...

how it gets worse before it gets better

and whether you want to continue to be part of the PROBLEM––or part of the SOLUTION...
theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…

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More from @wolfejosh

May 17
1/ Preview of a speculative hypothesis

hormuz > fertilizer shortage > vulnerable food supply chain > food insecurity > existing migratory pressures exacerbated > peripheral country crisis in EU
=mkts 📉

unassimilated immigrants + rise of Right > violent clashes in EU
=mkts 📉 Image
2/ Complex systems (via @sfiscience) fail not from obvious blows

but from seemingly inconsequential events (a "single spark") igniting volatile _ pre-existing conditions.

endless historical precedents of small spark collrelations: ex #1 Russian Wheat > Arab Spring... Image
@sfiscience 3/ Ex 2: single shot fired in Sarajevo > WWI Image
Read 6 tweets
May 8
1/ On Feb 21 I told my boss aka my wife @LTwolfe that I had my third conviction call not yet appreciated + to buy a basket

*In 2016 it was NVDA, pitched publicly at Invest For Kids in Chicago (80x+) when Lux portfolio company Zoox was using NVDA chips and I predicted the narrative would change from gaming consoles PS4/Xbox to simulation and AI…
2/ here was the 2016 tweet on NVDA…
3/ In the fall is 2024 I pitched SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung and we bought in our pa

Mostly because I had read a technical paper about LLMs and inference on device with local flash (again changing narrative from commodity memory players to coveted attach rates on HBM AND edge)
Read 10 tweets
Mar 18
1/ New paper from @ylecun et al on alternative approach for AI to learn more biologically...

paper basically says AI is super smart but still can't learn like a toddler can...

the main critique Image
the main critique...

is that top models today dont learn once deployed.

and curating data + training pipelines + filtering out noise is all done by humans in loop instead of being an intrinsic skill of the AIs...

here's Claude explaining the paper simply Image
3/ not quite Kahneman style but they call it System A +B

System A = learning from observation

this is self-supervised learning like predicting next word or video frame. good at making representations but passive and struggles to understand cause + effect... Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 21
1/ The shift from GPU capex (NVDA) to memory intelligence is already underway (SK, Samsung, Micron).

What will be next?

Even the best HBM chips are constrained by how they get architected into systems...
2/ Nvidia's GPU racks have a fixed compute-to-memory ratio. It is baked in + hard to change.

It is GREAT for training––and a WALL for memory-intensive inference...
3/ We found a company with 1,000x more memory than a standard enterprise server.

1 of their servers replaces up to 10 conventional racks.

Less floor space. Less power. Less cooling. Same or better output...
Read 7 tweets
Feb 20
New Lux LP letter dropping this weekend...
2/ Q4 2025 Lux LP Letter… Image
3/ the DILUTION DELUSION
vs CONFIDENT CONCENTRATION

physics teaches that systems in disequilibrium eventually corrrect and the questions is never whether, but how––and how violently.

excess energy must dissipate whethery by gradual cooling or explosive release… Image
Read 11 tweets
Dec 5, 2025
1/Today at private investor gathering I pitched

LONG
Adobe (ADBE)

SHORT
basket of scientific publishers
Wiley
Elsevier
Springer Nature

AI overestimation oversold Adobe (down 40%)

AI underestimation along with 2 other catalysts is set to crack the oligopoly of publishers
2/ first $ADBE thesis then the short basket + weighting

reasonably clean dislocation in large-cap SW

Stock ~$325 (down ~40% from highs)

Mult compressed from ~40x to ~20x

EV/EBITDA ~11–12x (10yr low)

mkt sees "value trap" facing existential AI threat

I see category error
3/ I'll argue the consensus bear case:

"AI kills the seat" + commoditizes design

one AI-augmented designer replaces three

Adobe loses its moat, got disrupted, growth is slowing + it’s milking a hostage customer base...
Read 25 tweets

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