Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Apr 17, 2022 15 tweets 9 min read Read on X
1/ My friend Jon Haidt @JonHaidt has written the MOST important article you can read today...

"Why the Past 10 Years of American Life Have Been Uniquely Stupid––it's not just a phase" ImageImage
2/ He begins by analogy to parable of Tower of Babel

Noting THEY were fragmented by different languages

While WE for causes he diagnoses are...

"disoriented, unable to speak the same language or recognize the same truth. We are cut off from one another and from the past." Image
3/ Haidt describes what I like to call
a "directional arrow of progress"

of EVER more cooperation at EVER larger scales

He invokes excellent must-read Robert Wright book NON-ZERO @robertwrighter (also author of Moral Animal) which reminds me of (Sims') Will Wright illustration ImageImage
4/ Here is Haidt on this directional arrow of progress toward non-zero cooperation Image
5/ Haidt notes
"The high point of techno-democratic optimism was arguably 2011, a yr that began w/the Arab Spring + ended w/ the global Occupy movement. And when Google Translate became available on virtually all smartphones making '11 the yr humanity rebuilt the Tower of Babel. ImageImage
6/ Haidt notes in the BEGINNING social media helped maintain social ties (and was virtue)––but THEN

as people felt comfortable sharing with strangers + co's––it became performative signaling + amplifying and exploitative. Image
7/ "This new game encouraged DISHONESTY and mob dynamics"

"We might have just handed a 4-year old a loaded weapon. ImageImage
8/ "It was just this kind of twitchy + explosive spread of anger 😡that Madison had tried to protect us from in drafting the Constitution. The Framers were excellent social psychologists. The KEY🔑was to build in mechanisms to slow things down, cool passions, require compromise" ImageImage
9/ Haidt then turns to the EROSION of TRUST

He invokes @mgurri the ex CIA analyst who predicted our fracturing (even without Russian + Chinese agents making it worse" ImageImage
10/ Haidt then turns to the importance of NORMS + INSTITUTIONS for error-correction

+ the ease today of tribes silencing not just critics but their own members from dissent––creating echo chamber + bubbles of homogenous belief–– & diversity breakdowns ImageImage
11/ Haidt again quoting Gurri

"The digital revolution has shattered that mirror, and now the public inhabits those broken pieces of glass. The public is highly fragmented + it’s basically mutually hostile––mostly people yelling at each other + living in bubbles Image
12/ Haidt notes both the LEFT + RIGHT in different ways have been handed darts making each side STUPIDER

and leading to
CANCEL CULTURE +
DEPLATFORMING +
SOCIAL DEATH

for anyone who doesn't self-censor or silence to as @pmarca would say "support the current thing" ImageImage
13/ Haidt cites awesome work from @noUpside Renée DiResta on DISINFORMATION

We already know Russia + China have exploited social media as a weapon turning our own technology + open systems on OURSELVES (the way hijackers turned our own planes on our own buildings)... ImageImage
14/ SO WHAT?

What do we DO about it?

@JonHaidt gives several prescriptions––

some touch on continuing phenomena he + @glukianoff first identified in "Coddling of The American Mind"–– on Gen Z not knowing how to resolve conflict, needing authorities + needing to just get OUT ImageImage
15/ Here is full MUST-READ piece by my friend @JonHaidt on democracy after our disintegration...

how it gets worse before it gets better

and whether you want to continue to be part of the PROBLEM––or part of the SOLUTION...
theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…

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More from @wolfejosh

Aug 21
1/ Apple researchers just dropped NEW foundation model on BEHAVIORAL data from wearables.

Forget raw sensors—think steps, heart variability, gait

Trained on 2.5B hours via 162K people

Predicts age, sex, pregnancy, sleep like a crystal ball. Image
2/ Their new foundation model (WBM) trained not on noisy low-level sensor data––but on derived behavioral metrics via wearables

Outperforms raw sensor models in predicting sleep, injury, & infection.

When combined CRUSH it—predicting pregnancy w/ >90% accuracy. Image
3/ Contrarian take––Transformers may be overkill for everything

head-to-head on wearable data (Mamba-2) beat Transformers for health prediction. Simpler tokenization also won.

Lesosn: data’s unique physics (irregular, noisy)+ ignore the loud signals to hear the whispers––edge is in the architectureImage
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Read 4 tweets
Aug 21
1/ New Lux quarterly LP letter––Q2 2025

theme: “Friction Frontier”

-Over 50% of small VCs will involuntarily exit as ~5 VCs are planning to voluntarily exit (IPO)

-Lux team has invested over half a billion dollars across 82 companies (new + existing) in the past few months… Image
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2/
-Zuck’s “ Poachapalooza 2025”

-L&A (License + Acquihire) is the new M&A

-the AI capex surge (5% of GDP) ~ fiber-optic + router binge of 2000 tech boom (5.2%) and short step below sheet-rock bonanza of 2005 housing bubble (6.7%).

-Open source vs Closed… Image
3/great irony in frenzy for ARTIFICIAL intelligence––what’s acquired isnt hardware but HUMAN intelligence

-frontier of agentic Al not defined by model size-but what we can verify

-99% reliable agent degrades to 60.5% after 50 sequential decision tasks––each error cascading like cracks in glassImage
Read 8 tweets
Aug 18
1/ Beyond the hype + headlines

some eye-opening AI stats to consider

Today Mag 7 = 35% of US stock mkt value

NVDA = 19% of that––and 42% of NVDA revenue comes from just 5 Big Tech co's buying GPUs:

Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Tesla
2/At recent lunch with LP who put Lux in business I talked about shift from consensus cloud inference (GPUs + datacenters + power) to on-device inference (memory + batteries)...
3/ This valued LP talked about CAPEX:

Meta, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG TLSA spending $560B by EOY 2025

The total AI revenue from that spend? ~$35B

That's not great ~6% return
Read 5 tweets
Jun 7
Apple just GaryMarcus'd LLM reasoning ability Image
2/ Apple tested today's "reasoning" AIs like Claude + DeepSeek which look smart—but when complexity rises, they collapse.

Not fail gracefully. Collapse completely.
3/ They found LLMs don't scale reasoning like humans do.

They think MORE up to a point…

Then they GIVE UP early, even when they have plenty of compute left.
Read 6 tweets
May 19
1/ Three big Lux things tonight

-@anduriltech founder Palmer Luckey on @60Minutes
“The Future of Warfare”

-@eGenesisBio on @CNN with Sanjay Gupta
“Animal Pharm”

-new Lux Q1 2025 Quarterly LetterImage
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2/
This is one of my favorite letters we’ve ever written

The theme is PARTNERSHIPS

-between man and machine
-between present and future selves, decision, companies
-between us and our founders of Lux companies
-between Lux partners ourselvesImage
3/ word processor > spellcheck >grammar‑check > LLM “style‑check” if paragraph was birthed by human mind or statistical echo. We detect plagiarism but also something subtler—call it prompterism, prose coaxed from silicon’s
latent space rather than summoned from lived experience.Image
Read 9 tweets
May 9
BIG NEWS from Lux🚨…

American scientists––and those we attract to America🇺🇸––are what have helped make America not just great but absolutely + relatively EXCEPTIONAL.

We CANNOT cede scientific supremacy to China.
We don’t need talk, we need action…
2/ The 🇨🇳CCP “2035 Science & Technology Vision” states unapologetically “original innovation is the sharpest blade.” coupling that declaration w/ vast subsidies, talent visas + procurement guarantees which have helped them take lead in 37 of 44 critical and emerging technologies!
3/ Upending American science seemed an impossible order.

Regularly copied and always envied, but never rivaled.

Constructed by visionaries like Vannevar Bush in the ashes of WWII + propelled by brilliant legislation like Bayh-Dole Act––we did the impossible: an open scientific enterprise that could simultaneously probe into the furthest frontiers while translating the most original insights uncovered into the most prosperous companies in the world.
Read 16 tweets

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