1/ My friend Jon Haidt @JonHaidt has written the MOST important article you can read today...
"Why the Past 10 Years of American Life Have Been Uniquely Stupid––it's not just a phase"
2/ He begins by analogy to parable of Tower of Babel
Noting THEY were fragmented by different languages
While WE for causes he diagnoses are...
"disoriented, unable to speak the same language or recognize the same truth. We are cut off from one another and from the past."
3/ Haidt describes what I like to call
a "directional arrow of progress"
of EVER more cooperation at EVER larger scales
He invokes excellent must-read Robert Wright book NON-ZERO @robertwrighter (also author of Moral Animal) which reminds me of (Sims') Will Wright illustration
4/ Here is Haidt on this directional arrow of progress toward non-zero cooperation
5/ Haidt notes
"The high point of techno-democratic optimism was arguably 2011, a yr that began w/the Arab Spring + ended w/ the global Occupy movement. And when Google Translate became available on virtually all smartphones making '11 the yr humanity rebuilt the Tower of Babel.
6/ Haidt notes in the BEGINNING social media helped maintain social ties (and was virtue)––but THEN
as people felt comfortable sharing with strangers + co's––it became performative signaling + amplifying and exploitative.
7/ "This new game encouraged DISHONESTY and mob dynamics"
"We might have just handed a 4-year old a loaded weapon.
8/ "It was just this kind of twitchy + explosive spread of anger 😡that Madison had tried to protect us from in drafting the Constitution. The Framers were excellent social psychologists. The KEY🔑was to build in mechanisms to slow things down, cool passions, require compromise"
9/ Haidt then turns to the EROSION of TRUST
He invokes @mgurri the ex CIA analyst who predicted our fracturing (even without Russian + Chinese agents making it worse"
10/ Haidt then turns to the importance of NORMS + INSTITUTIONS for error-correction
+ the ease today of tribes silencing not just critics but their own members from dissent––creating echo chamber + bubbles of homogenous belief–– & diversity breakdowns
11/ Haidt again quoting Gurri
"The digital revolution has shattered that mirror, and now the public inhabits those broken pieces of glass. The public is highly fragmented + it’s basically mutually hostile––mostly people yelling at each other + living in bubbles
12/ Haidt notes both the LEFT + RIGHT in different ways have been handed darts making each side STUPIDER
and leading to
CANCEL CULTURE +
DEPLATFORMING +
SOCIAL DEATH
for anyone who doesn't self-censor or silence to as @pmarca would say "support the current thing"
13/ Haidt cites awesome work from @noUpside Renée DiResta on DISINFORMATION
We already know Russia + China have exploited social media as a weapon turning our own technology + open systems on OURSELVES (the way hijackers turned our own planes on our own buildings)...
some touch on continuing phenomena he + @glukianoff first identified in "Coddling of The American Mind"–– on Gen Z not knowing how to resolve conflict, needing authorities + needing to just get OUT
15/ Here is full MUST-READ piece by my friend @JonHaidt on democracy after our disintegration...
1/ My take on Trump in exchange with one of my smartest market friends.
Bizarrely I’m more sanguine.
Either it’s the greatest policy mistake and blunder of a rollout ever. OR it ends up with some grand bargain for those that want to ensure certainty and stability by doing long term deals or otherwise face massive undulating volatility in his flip-flopping, fickle whims.
I think overall across all domains (tech cos, universities, law firms, countries) they got very confident and then cocky ... I think it started with the Silicon Valley and Elon flip over… And then Zuck shifting his board and taking a knee… And he saw powerful person after powerful person pledging fealty out of fear. I think that further emboldened them the "we’re fucking here We are in total control. We have all the leverage. You do what we say or you're fucked" from big tech to Zelensky to law firms to Columbia + Harvard and then the rest of the world
And Whether it’s the market fighting back or law firms, fighting back or universities fighting back… He’s gotta double down and not show weakness or concede. He was wrong… It’s very tough game theory.
The other view… Is they try a few experiments mindful that it could create chaos… And going into midterms they stabilized with more predictability market so and they have total political control
2/ post election when all Trump bros were “golden age of America” with 80s topgun hulk hogan f-yeah amurica hype videos…
We bought deep out of the money puts
Because the consensus and stability were the consensus view and the scarce contrarian view was: insane volatility ahead
3/ those puts paid off (pa) and now nearly 100% consensus is lower growth or recession AND inflation….SO….
China’s playbook isn’t war in the open—it’s war in the seams.
They target the gaps between state & federal, public & private, markets & security.
America must 'armor up' 🧵...
2/ The CCP’s strategy?
Hollow out U.S. strength from within.
Critical infrastructure? Infiltrated.
Universities? Compromised.
State pension funds? Financing China’s military tech.
3/ While America focused on the War on Terror, China waged a war on us—a silent siege of intellectual property theft, capital capture, and digital espionage.
If you were fly on wall in Qatar's strategy meetings you’d hear their not so secret strategy
i) keep up economic relations w/Iran (esp w shared gas reserves)
ii) support Islamist groups (esp Muslim Brotherhood) + use the masses as pawns for political leverage..
2/
iii) assert distinct identity in MidEast geopolitics as a ‘mediator’
iv) religious mafia style––foment fervent believers (funding Al Jazeera propoganda + mosques/ Imams to rule over other country populations) grow geopolitical power depsite tiny size (and no real military)
3/ The ties to Iran + Turkey in particular who leverage terrorism, religious extremism are the greatest threat to Mideast regional peace
especially with moderate + modernizing + peace + prosperity seeking UAE + Saudi (on cusp on Israel normalzied relations) and Sunni…
2/ this technical paper from Apple published year ago not widely discussed was the breadcrumb clue and the inspiration I have shared with many friends since....
3/ The paper introduces 2 methods called “windowing” + “row-column bundling” which allow devices to run models up to 2x DRAM size by storing model parameters in flash + loading them into DRAM as needed.