Thread by @ThreshedThought

The Battle is Donbas seems to have started.

But it’s the Ukrainians who have started it.

See here on my expertly drawn map

The Ukrainians are pushing east from Kharkiv which cuts the supply routes for Russian forces in Izyum.

If you remember from a few days ago (or a week? I can’t remember) the Russians took Izyum. This was import - it is a transport hub which makes it easier for the Russians in the NE to link up to this in the Mariupol direction. The start of an encirclement of Ukr forces in Donbas

But it appears that the Russians have over stretched themselves over supply lines that they can’t defend.

And so the Ukrainians are merrily cutting those supply lines

An encirclement of an encirclement if you like

I suppose this is the consequence of having a fixed date - may 9th to wrap everything up by

We’ve seen this before in the battle for Kyiv. Russians push too far on unrealistic political goals and get their log tails cut.

They’ve learnt nothing.

Watch this space.

This sort of movement coupled with credible reports of Ukrainian reinforcements and reports of Russian losses seems to indicate that the war is still not going Russians way

Which takes me back to my original prediction: the russian armed forces will be defeated in Ukraine and Putin will be removed from power.

It may take some time but that is where we’ll end up

I swear the Ukrainians are proper sick at strategy.

I want them on my side in any future wars.

This move gives the real lie to all those Russian claims of reconstitution of those forces that got mullered around Kyiv.

Where are they? There aren’t any.

Ha. Look at this. The Ukrainians are pushing NE the other side of Izyum too. Look out for Russian forces being surrounded in Izyum in next 24/48 hours.

https://twitter.com/aggregateosint/status/1515817551149912074

It also appears the Mariupol is going to fall over the same time period - 24/48 hours. But it’s done it’s job - it’s kept the Russians tied up enabling the Ukrainians to stage their counterattack.

The defenders of Mariupol will be lauded forevermore in Ukraine.

Interesting - so how we hear that Russia is planning a referendum in Kherson to be held from May 01-10

This would apparently be modelled on the BS referendum that was held in Crimea after the 2014 takeover.

Obviously the residents of Kherson (who have resisted Russian control throughout) will ‘vote’ to join Russia.

I’m sure the Russians will pre fill out the ballot papers for the population to make it easy for them!

So in one sense this referendum is what Putin is going to cite as his ‘victory’ on may 9th. Or at least as part of his ‘victory’.

This is because of an absence of any other victories.

But in another sense it creates a danger.

Once the residents of Kherson have ‘voted’ for ‘independence’ or ‘overlordship under russia’ (or whatever) and this has been publicised on Russian TV it makes it even harder for putin to row back

In other words it ups the anti.

And it means that Putin is even more tied to this misadventure and when it finally goes wrong that he will have even less chances to save his skin.

If I were the Ukrainians I would do whatever I could to take Kherson. Either that or create another Russian salient around it like Izyum.

From someone fighting around Kherson.

https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1515940106569404418

Ok so the Russians now seem to have started a huge artillery barrage in Donbas and also in the south.

All I will say for now is that artillery requires A LOT of logistics and is easy to find.

Let’s see how the Ukrainians do.

Also interested that they’ve started before finishing off Mariupol.

I think they might come to regret that.

Such is the problem of having a timescale imposed on you by your political masters.

Ok so what do we know about the Russian assault in Donbas?

Let’s look again at this Izyum area. The Russians need to push south ish from here to encircle the bulk of the Ukrainian forces in Donbas.

The Russians apparently have 22 BTGs in this area. Some of these are reconstituted units from Kyiv.

If you remember from further up the thread, this is the area that they Ukrainians are trying to cut off.

22 BTGs is - say, 22k men. It’s prob less than that but let’s go with that figure.

So let’s assume that the Ru can achieve breakout south from Izyum.

It’s a big assumption but let’s go with it.

How many men should they leave in Izyum once they push out?

Let’s say 5k. I mean with a population of 45k that hates them a counterinsurgent ratio of 10:1 would be the minimum to protect supply lines.

Ok so how we’re down to 17k.

See how this works? The first rule of military stuff is learning to count.

In Izyum the Russians will run out of forces pretty quickly.

I think we’re gonna see a re-run of the Battle for Kyiv.

I haven’t even started on the logistics required to sustain that artillery-heavy force ….

Maybe I’ll do that after laying into the @ConservativesTW for claiming online this morning that they haven’t created a budget deficit in the Town Hall (which they have).

Also still waiting for @GregClarkMP to make clear his position on Ministers lying to Parliament and breaking the law.

No doubt we’ll hear shortly.

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1512472859263787010

And back to Ukraine

forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…

I've been saying this for weeks. That bridge is gonna go!

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1516778168123805705?s=20&t=Ti6PPLLLYOq7f2F2TIafLA

Now official. See my threads from beginning of the month explaining why this was a good idea

https://twitter.com/UATV_en/status/1517029430614441984

Like here

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1509642301718601729?s=20&t=ss9pyW1fsk1tOoB0vsLqIQ

Of course saying they are going to do it is very clever. It ties up Russian troops, and when they do do it it makes it look like the Ukrainians OWN the battlefield

If ever there was a time to deploy the SBS or the Seals to do an underwater demolition job, this is it.

(And let the Ukrainians take the credit)

But you know, honestly, I think the Ukrainians have got this.

The Russians certainly ain’t gonna take Mykolaiv. Check this thread

https://twitter.com/dpatrikarakos/status/1516696615779815424

Oh wow. Another ‘right-sizing’ of Putin’s objectives

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1517038896860864512

This may be because there are a lot of Russian prisoners about to be traded or because he’s realised that they won’t be able to take it.

The key reference point here is the tractor factory in Battle of Stalingrad (thanks @FrankLedwidge66). The Soviets always held this, the Germans never took it.

Boot is just on the other foot now!

Loads of people have been asking me about the western 'heavy' or 'offensive' weaponry on its way to Ukraine and whether it will make a difference.

In a word, not really, here's why:

Firstly, it'll take ages to get there and the fight is going on now.

Secondly, the more complex equipment is, the harder it is to bring into, and keep in, service.

cf rocket launchers and anti-tank missiles to fighter aircraft and tanks

But lastly, we can see from the equipment that is actually sent that it is just for show, and that the west is still concentrating on supplying Ukraine much as before.

Let's look at the recent $800m from the US

"11 Mi-17 helicopters that had been earmarked for Afghanistan before the U.S.-backed government collapsed last year. It also inc 18 155mm howitzers, along with 40,000 artillery rounds, counter-artillery radars, 200 armoured personnel carriers and 300 "Switchblade" drones"

So we can see from this that the helos were basically a budgetary movement, and at a cost of $20m roughly each take up around a 1/4 of this shipment. See previous arguments about complexity of kit.

What about "18 155mm howitzers, along with 40,000 artillery rounds".

All I'll say about that is that 40k rounds for 18 guns gives them 6 hours of firing at a reasonable rate of fire (6 rounds / minute)

Counter artillery radar - that can trace back enemy projectiles to their source - when coupled with drones - super useful.

and the APCs are pretty useful, but hardly heavy weaponry - more like battlefield mobility.

This tells me that the Ukrainians are going to fight this phase like the last - luring the Russians into traps and then destroying their flanks and tails.

There is not going to be some grand armour showdown.

And here we go

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1517190261843140608

Oh wow. Just when you thought the Russians couldn’t be even more stupid. They are now announcing that their war aim is to connect up Transnistria (a breakaway part of Moldova with Russian ‘peacekeepers’ in it) with Russia.

interfax.ru/world/837353

Here, for my followers only, is another map of consummate skill

Points to note:

This involves taking Odessa, which is not happening now that the Moskva is sunk, because the Moskva was the air defence bit of the fleet.

Not even the Russians are stupid enough to attempt an opposed landing on Odessa without air cover.

(Although some of the stuff they’ve pulled recently had been doctorate level rubbish so maybe they’ll prove me wrong)

Other opinions for Odessa include a land attack from through Mykolaiv. See up in the thread to see why that ain’t happening.

Or maybe using the 40k troops in Transnistria. That ain’t happening either because the Moldovans will take their territory back.

What is Putin smoking?

First the objective was Kyiv. Then it was Donbas. Now it’s the southern coast linking to Transnistria.

Always a sign that a war is failing when the aims keep shifting.

This all feeds into and is linked to the Ukrainians saying they’ll hit the bridge into Crimea.

You see: Putin announces aims in the South and the Ukrainians announce that they will hit THE major strategic target in the South (also makes it even harder for Russia to take the S)

What a joke. You try and sift through the Russian actions and announcements for a strategy and you can only conclude that his generals are telling him anything to remain out of jail.