John Ʌ Konrad V Profile picture
Apr 17, 2022 27 tweets 6 min read Read on X
This is the Russian Flagship #Moskva before she sank. It's impossible to fully assess the situation aboard based on one picture but marine salvage masters must make assumptions based on little information. As a ship captain and ship fire author here's what appears to be likely🧵 Image
The first question any salvage expert will ask is how close is she to sinking. The red line on this photo shows the approximate location of the new waterline. As you can see by comparing the photos she has lost a significant amount of buoyancy and is listing to port. Image
She, however, is probably not in immediate danger of sinking for a few reasons:
1) She has some reserve buoyancy left because she has not reached deck edge immersion, which is the point where no freeboard is left and stability goes from bad to worse.
2) The spraying water means they have at least emergency power which could be - if the crew had enough time - set up to help dewater the ship.
3) The weather is relatively calm. If the waves picked up the danger of sinking would increase exponentially.
What else do we know?
The Lifeboats have been deployed and nobody is on deck, even back aft where it's smoke-free. Hoses are rigged to spray in the air. Those could have been rigged to help cool the ship but more likely are there to let nearby ships know when she lost power.
So it's likely been fully abandoned. It's possible that some people remain down below but staying in the engine room without proper boundary cooling and topside assistance from trained shipboard firefighters would be suicidal.
What else do we know?
The Smoke is dark and heavy. This is a serious fire with a lot of heat. Dark smoke is a result of the burning of heavy fuels or synthetic materials and incomplete combustion. It's a very hazardous situation.
We know the picture was taken relatively soon after the fire grew this large. We can assume this with some confidence because most of the grat paint is intact. Another hour under those conditions and the paint will likely peel and get covered in soot.
We know don't see any nearby ships. Professional salvage teams require a lot of heavy equipment and firefighting gear. They would likely get a tugboat to spray the forward end with fire monitors to cool the ship before boarding with fireteams. No nearby ships are cooling her.
The next question is why? There is a rescue ship nearby (that ship took this photo) Is she not equipped with fire monitors capable of shooting water outward? Or is she keeping a safe distance because there is a real danger of a secondary explosion from munitions stored aboard?
Next, we have to ask what's unusual about this photo? To me, the most striking part is the smoke is being blown forward and she has reserved buoyancy. This is a dangerous situation but the aft helideck is free of smoke and should be cool enough to work.
If this was a commercial ship the captain would likely have abandoned "non-essential" personnel and regrouped his fire teams at a "safe staging area" (likely the helideck) but this is a warship so the salvage team would have to know the location of all explosives before boarding
Finally, us captains don't care about equipment, we live and die by one rule during emergencies at sea. In an explosion of this magnitude, our job is not to save everyone but to save the highest percentage of people possible. This could lead to hard decisions.
As a commercial ship captain, the likely correct answer here is to abandon the ship knowing she would likely sink, and let insurance cover the loss.. but a Navy captain does not have that luxury.
The biggest difference between a commercial ship captain and a navy captain is that we civilians only have to worry about our own crew. Navy guys don't have that luxury. They must think about their crew and the strategic mission.
Remember the golden rule - "save as many people as possible" - well, the people a navy captain has to think about are not just the crewmembers but also the army and marines his ship provides air cover and artillery support for.
By abandoning his ship early he may save his crew but lose the war.
By most accounts, this flagship ship was critical to these war efforts. My best assumption - again based on too little evidence - is because of
1) the importance of this ship to the war effort
2) because the Montreux convention prevents Russia from sending a replacement
3) the calm weather, reserve buoyancy, and the fact she still had power means she could possibly have been saved
4) the fact the helideck was smoke-free

For these reasons my best guess is the captain of the Moskva abandoned his ship too early.
P.S. If you've read this far and want to learn more about evacuating a ship under hotter and more explosive conditions please consider reading my book amzn.to/38XY7kF
Update: looks like a salvage tug WAS alongside at the time of this photo. Good catch @MisrememberedY
UPDATE 2: A few have pointed out there is a boat, probably a salvage tug, close alongside starboard aft. Image
In that case, the water stream pointing aft is likely coming from the tug & means there isn’t much heat stbd aft. Salvage tug monitors (like garden hoses) have straight spray and fan spray… you would use fan spray as a shield if heat and smoke were a problem. Example: Image
Many older fire monitors require special pumps that can’t be turned off and on with a switch… so they are probably just spraying it aft to keep it out of the way but available if the smoke and heat shifts.
There is a *small* chance they hooked the tug pump into the ships’ main to provide water pressure to the pipe on the port side… so it’s possible the ship did lose emergency power.
It is also possible the tug is made fast and is pulling the ship astern. That might explain why the smoke is streaming fwd and away from the heli-deck. Hard to tell for certain.

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More from @johnkonrad

Jan 26
Here’s the ICE watch training video @camhigby found. Let’s deconstruct the first few minutes.

Lead by Eric Ward, a senior fellow at the Southern Poverty Law Center, a far-left NGO with nearly a billion-dollar endowment.

His academic work is in “Stochastic terrorism,” which is “using hostile public rhetoric, repeated and amplified across media and communication platforms.”

Literally, his expertise is manipulating minds.

He’s not an expert on peaceful protests. He’s not an operational guy. His background is in psychological warfare.

Participants were told “for their safety” they must “have training,” but this training isn’t about situational awareness, first aid, or practical defense against pepper spray.

It’s, in fact, teaching you how to mentally prepare to escalate violence.

Let’s look at his tactic.

First, a meditation session. Why? To get you “out of your brain” and in “touch with feelings.”

He then explicitly tells everyone to tune out everything but their feelings.

Next… the four thousand people here are being asked to confront armed federal agents.

What is the natural reaction for anyone confronting armed men?

Nervousness. I love the police; my father-in-law was an NYPD officer, but my heart beats faster when I’m pulled over by my local PD.

He’s telling them to listen to that “heat behind the eyes, tremble in your hands,” which is fine, but then he is lying.

He’s telling you to interpret that natural panic when facing authority as moral superiority and your “conscious.”

Next, he has to dehumanize opponents and set the stage for “us vs. them,” but this is tricky because almost every American knows a Republican.

So he says “I want to be clear who they are,” and he gets very specific so the picture of your MAGA uncle or priest doesn’t enter your mind.

Then he states the obvious, which everyone (even MAGA) will agree on:

“Renee Good should be alive.
Alex Pretti should be alive.”

I agree with that statement, but the question is who’s responsible for their deaths.

IMHO, the person most responsible is Eric Ward, but of course, he’s not going to blame himself.

Then he says, “The people who died at the hands of ICE snd border patrol should be alive.”

What people?

He doesn’t say. It’s not about the people; it’s about drawing a straight line from Renee and Alex to ICE.

Then he says,

“Let’s tell the truth.”

Which any kindergartener knows is followed by lies, but his listeners are in a trance from the breathing exercise.

Listen to the sing-song nature of how he speaks. It’s literally hypnosis. Hypnosis for the BIG whopper lie:

“Federal law enforcement is not here to keep us safe.”

Really, Eric? Maybe you can make an argument that some federal law enforcement isn’t here to keep us safe… but you didn’t specify.

You didn’t exclude organizations like the US Coast Guard, which is federal immigration law enforcement and does keep us safe.

Why? Because he needs to paint with broad strokes in case other agencies are called in.

Nad now the stage is set to dehumanize: “Federal law enforcement is killing people, beating people…”

And the worst lie: “Detaining people like disposable objects.”

Once you are hypnotized. Once you trust your feelings over facts. Once you know those feelings make you morally superior. Once you know ICE thinks you are “disposable garbage,” then you are prepared to act with violence!

Just trust your feelings and don’t look at the massive endowment the Southern Poverty Law Center has to fund physiological operatives trained in Marxist theory like Eric Ward.
Ward’s Wikipedia page… Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 24
And the Top 4 priorities of the new Department of War National defense strategy are…. 🧵 Image
#1 Defend the Homeland Image
#2 Deter China Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 22
DR has been doing an excellent job, but some context is missing, specifically around the three real purposes of Davos.

Collusion
Proof of life
Narrative testing

Let me explain 🧵
Note: I’ve never attended, but I have close friends who do, and I’ve reported for decades from similar off-the-record gatherings hosted by billionaires in the shipping and industrial sectors. Davos isn’t unique. It’s just the most visible version.
PRIMARY PURPOSE: COLLUSION

Before the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890, collusion wasn’t illegal—it was normal. Industry leaders met openly, wrote letters, and signed agreements to divide markets, suppress wages, avoid taxes, and eliminate competition.

This coordination was enforced by bankers. If you didn’t play along, you didn’t get financing.

We’re taught that J.P. Morgan personally orchestrated this system for profit, but when he died, his estate was under $80 million. Immense by modern standards, yes—but a fraction of Rockefeller or Carnegie. Morgan wasn’t the ultimate beneficiary. He was an agent, largely acting on behalf of private families in London.

When Theodore Roosevelt doubled down on antitrust enforcement, that model broke. The British elite needed a replacement. Cecil Rhodes’ answer was the Round Table—a secret society designed to coordinate power indirectly. But secrecy is fragile. It gets exposed.

So they adapted.

Instead of secret societies, they created trade organizations—the precursors to modern NGOs. Each industry got one. Media was invited to public sessions to provide cover, while real decisions were made in private, behind closed doors. “Transparency” without access.

But that only solved coordination within industries. How do you collude across industries?

You capture the pipeline.

Elite universities became the sorting mechanism. Promising candidates were identified early—often via scholarships like Rhodes—and routed into industry, finance, government, or think tanks.

Instead of industries negotiating directly, coordination was outsourced to think tanks. Institutions like Chatham House published “best practices” and “future trends.” Anyone could read them—but only those trained at elite schools truly understood what they meant or how to implement them.

This system accelerated during the Roosevelt and Taft years and culminated in the election of an academic—Woodrow Wilson. The public trusted academics. That trust proved invaluable.

The result?
•Tariffs killed via the 16th Amendment
•Monetary policy handed to banking interests via the Federal Reserve Act
•State power weakened through the 17th Amendment
•And, ultimately, U.S. entry into WWI

At its most basic level, that’s what Davos is today. Anyone can attend if they have money. The collusion happens elsewhere.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 10
Can we pause the Greenland noise for one second and admit the obvious?

Denmark isn’t sovereign anymore it’s in lockstep with @Maersk.

The UN @IMOHQ is run by NGOs.

Maersk and the UN @IMOHQ are in lockstep with China.

Here’s the history 🧵
In practice, its government moves in near-lockstep with @Maersk—the world’s largest logistics empire.

Not officially.
Not on paper.
But in outcomes, incentives, and red lines.

Here’s how we got here. Image
Denmark was occupied by Nazi Germany in 1940.

The King stayed. He became a symbol of quiet national continuity.

But Denmark had no army to celebrate. No Normandy. No Stalingrad.

What it did have was a merchant fleet at sea, one of the largest in the world, which joined the Allied cause. Danish sailors carried fuel, food, and munitions under Allied control while their homeland was under German occupation.

They were 💯 critical to allies success.

Over a thousand Danish merchant sailors died while serving with the Allies

Those sailors became Denmark’s war heroes.

And that mattered.

It meant that after the war, shipping companies that fought with the allies had enormous political legitimacy in Denmark in a way the U.S. Merchant Marine never did in America.Image
Read 36 tweets
Jan 8
Oh Drew, I’m thrilled you asked.

If any of my followers want to explain this to him directly, please jump in. I’ve officially run out of crayons.

Otherwise, I’m happy to walk through exactly how ya’ll at WaPo engineer hit pieces🧵
Foe those unfamiliar here’s the hir piece Drew Wrote about me, a licenses ship captain and MARITIME journalist , who was invited to go with @SecWar on a shipyard tour

washingtonpost.com/business/2026/…
First let’s define “hit piece” so we are all clear

I’ll even give you the biased Wikipedia version Image
Read 26 tweets
Jan 7
I like this a lot. Some sections are demanding, you have to reread them, but that’s not a flaw. It forces the reader to slow down. And sometimes hard is not only good, it’s necessary.

What many people miss is that linear systems are incredibly efficient but only under very specific conditions: rule-based order, geopolitical stability, and a high degree of trust and safety.

Linear systems excel at things like this: start a business, raise X capital, optimize for Y, expand into Z markets. Capital flows easily because there are few externalities. You don’t worry much about supply-chain collapse, interest-rate shocks, reputational risk from social media swings, or geopolitical sabotage. The system absorbs those risks for you.

For decades, the job of government was to simplify everything:
•One monetary system (the dollar)
•One diplomatic framework (the UN)
•Fewer barriers to trade
•Low interest rates
•Free trade
•Colorblind governance (no DEI sorting)
•Outsourcing complexity to NGOs

This was a very good thing.

The ultimate expression of this logic is a one-world, highly integrated system. From a pure efficiency standpoint, that is also a very good thing.

The catch is simple but fatal: everyone has to agree and act with some degree of honesty.

The reason we ended up with a “uniparty” consensus is that a global linear system made business extraordinarily efficient and reduced many traditional security risks. Conservatives liked it because it boosted growth and stability. Liberals liked it because it freed up capital and cognitive bandwidth for social priorities.

That alignment wasn’t sinister, it was rational.

To make it work, however, you need powerful international institutions capable of managing complexity. Organizations like the IMO, alongside dozens of NGOs, effectively regulate 90% of global trade. For a long time, that worked and it worked well.

“But John, I thought you were MAGA?”

Yes and what I just described is the system we had in the late 1990s and early 2000s. We came remarkably close to a near-optimal arrangement.

But a perfect system depends on trust. And trust broke.

Russia and China refused to play by the rules. Both became aggressively extractive. China hollowed out global manufacturing for themselves. Russia stripped natural resources. And NGOs, operating inside a high-trust, low-scrutiny environment, captured everything else.

Consolidated power plus high trust is an open invitation to fraud.

So now we’re stuck in the worst possible configuration: a system optimized for efficiency, but hemorrhaging value through corruption. The most honest, rule-following participants are being drained to subsidize the least honest ones.

That brings us to the present bifurcation.

We have two choices:
1.Double down on consolidation and linearization, squeezing out even more efficiency so we can do better despite the fraud (liberals)
2.Accept complexity, abandon false simplicity, and actively intervene to repair what’s broken (MAGA)

But this isn’t just MAGA vs liberals.

It’s linear thinkers vs non-linear thinkers.

The skill set required to streamline a functioning system is completely different from the skill set required to diagnose and repair a failing one.

And at the root of all of this is education.

Our education system has spent decades selecting for linear thinkers—because that’s what worked. The formula was clear: honors track, X hours of study, Y tutors, Z credentials. Choose the right majors, follow the prescribed career ladder, earn the right degrees. The path wasn’t easy, but it was linear—and it rewarded intelligence and discipline.

In a well-managed linear system, you don’t need to think broadly. If something matters, the system tells you. If CNN isn’t talking about it, keep your head down and stay on the track.

That model no longer works. 1/2
Today, we need people who can hold multiple competing ideas in their heads at once—people who can reason across systems, not just within them, so they can repair the system and end fraud while it’s still running. Those people were liabilities in a smoothly operating machine, so we sidelined them.

That’s why a single-lens worldview, what DR describes, became dominant. The people elevated into leadership across NGOs, international institutions, and finance are highly linear thinkers who need everything reduced to BLUFs and flowcharts.

But here’s the contradiction: we no longer have a linear system.

It’s impossible to go back without repairing the system. The fraud is too great.

And since roughly 2015, instead of adapting to the fraud, liberals pushed harder for linearity—forcing more people into increasingly brittle efficiency tracks—while parallel ideologies (DEI, ESG, Marxist frameworks) taught others how to exploit the growing fraud inside the system.

The result isn’t progress or equity.

It’s systemic failure hiding behind the language of efficiency.

And now the people with the power under a linear system (like the person at CNN who is intelligent and put in the hard work to go to x school, follow y career path, and follow z type stories) are pissed off because they did everything they were told to do and they achieved the pinnacle of the system but they have zero power.

While those who were tossed out of the system (I had to leave the navy and follow a very non-traditional career to succeed) are running circles around them because we think nonlinearly and can jump around with a wrench fixing problems.

And here’s the reason why they are getting SO ANGRY at us. Because they cannot see what we see.

It’s not that they are dumb, it’s that they have been trained and selected for a very tunnel vision worldview.

And we are angry because we have no credentials or traditional power combined with a very wide field of view.

We can see all the problems very clearly and multitask…. While they can only focus on one problem in predefined buckets: in this case, that bucket is Maduro.
P. S. BOTH take work.

It takes a lot of work to get into Harvard and follow the formula to Senator or CEO. You have to read all the right books and climb the singular path.

It also takes a lot of work to read what DR is saying and my long text and map it to the world around you. You have to read a wide diversity of books and climb many difficult paths.

Work is just the prerequisite.

Problem is all the work the ivy league CEO or “top military journalist” has become useless in the last 10 years because of all the fraud while the work of the much smaller subset like Dr or Elon or me have become wildly more valuable.
Read 5 tweets

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