When something goes wrong, the experts say, “Wait for the report.”

Let’s be real—you won’t remember or care in a year but… this is a teaching moment.

So here’s a 🧵 on possible causes: 👇

https://twitter.com/gcaptain/status/1899114687905878461

First we have to define what type of incident it is.

We say incident instead of accident because we can’t rule out foul play.

This is also not a collision. It’s an Allision. A collision is between two moving objects, an allision is 1 moving and 1 fixed

gcaptain.com/maritime-word-…

This post is going viral, and I’m getting a lot of questions about whether a Marine could be appointed as the next Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) and who’s actually in the running.

Could a Marine Be the Next CNO?

Here’s a 🧵 on who it might be

https://twitter.com/johnkonrad/status/1893663977130832166

General Heckl would be a great choice but a marine is highly unlikely. The CNO has always been a Navy admiral. General Karsten Heckl is retired—he could technically be called up, but it’s a long shot.

While predicting the next CNO is tricky, here are the names that keep coming up among insiders—ranked by likelihood.

Now that @shashj has blocked me, accused me of alchemy and called our VP a racists against Indians gloves are off.

Here’s 🧵with my thoughts on his “masterful” rebuttal to @JDVance Like most articles he’s written for @TheEconomist hi post is a masterclass in the kind of self-deluded, pseudo-strategic thinking that has kept Ukraine locked in an unwinnable war with dwindling resources, mounting casualties, and zero path to victory.

It cherry-picks facts, ignores strategic realities, and engages in outright fantasy when it comes to U.S. and European support.

Sad to see America’s most beautiful ship—the fastest ocean liner ever—towed to her final resting place.

But see that tall tugboat leading the way? That’s Capt. Mike Vinik, my good friend. He rescues vintage tugs 🧵

Mike is a legendary in New York Harbor—all agree he’s nicest guy you’ll meet, an unusual trait on this notorious waterfront.

A volunteer firefighter, rescue diver, & a man who put himself through New York Maritime while restoring old fire trucks. Some people just live to serve.

Charlie Kirk is on fire supporting @ElbridgeColby, and for good reason. There’s no shortage of editorials on why he matters for DoD policy and planning.

But they’re missing seven CRITICAL points🧵 This is a HUGE appointment.

Most people don’t realize just how big this is. Colby’s appointment is happening before ANY military service secretaries—right after heavyweights like Tulsi & RFK.

That tells you everything about how important this job- DoD Policy & Planning- is

This is blowing up, but most don’t get why the U.S. fell behind in shipbuilding—or the massive forces keeping it that way.

Here’s a 🧵 breaking it down. I have to tread carefully and keep this at 10,000 feet, but hopefully some flesh them out in the comments

https://twitter.com/johnkonrad/status/1891359854440157653

The first thing that must be questioned is the conventional wisdom: seablindness & apathy

J is spot on. The U.S. Navy is laying up 17 ships—not just from a manpower shortage, but from idiotic regulations that trace back to the UN

And that’s just the start.

How the UN is Sabotaging the U.S. Military’s Global Reach: 🧵

https://twitter.com/jdlbmd/status/1890730513733709875

The U.S. Navy is laying up 17 ships, and @IMOHQ is a big reason why.

Worse, the UN has crippled our ability to deliver aviation fuel—jeopardizing carrier ops and forward USAF refueling bases.

Our Achilles’ heel? Logistics. And the Navy let the UN tighten the noose.

The War is Won - Now Secure the Victory.
As we watch men battle for yards, we must remember that for decades, the Uniparty ruled unchecked, masquerading as patriots while surrendering American sovereignty piece by piece.

Here’s how 🧵 They gave us the Bushes, the Cheneys, the Clintons—families who waved the flag in public but bent the knee in private. They told you to accept managed decline. They stole from you, sent your money overseas, and lined the pockets of their friends and relatives.

Now that we’re finally allowed to talk about conspiracies and USAID—can we talk about the CIA moving gold on ships?

Can we talk about how, before WWII, nearly every village in China had a gold Buddha filled with gems, serving as the local bank?

Can we talk about how the Japanese looted them all and launched a massive sealift operation to stash them in the Philippines?

Or how a farmer found ONE of these Buddhas—only for Ferdinand Marcos to steal it?

Or how a U.S. court valued that SINGLE Buddha at $22 BILLION in 1998?

Or how, if that one Buddha had been invested in the S&P 500, the farmer would be richer than @elonmusk today?

Can we talk about how Google raided libraries and archives, scanning every book to track it down?

Can we talk about how certain tech firms used this knowledge to leverage the US Government and CIA to work for them?

Or how most of that gold is STILL buried in the Philippines—
And how Taiwan is a distraction while China builds a massive Navy to take it back?

Or how at least one of the CIA’s secret ship registries was accidentally exposed in the USAID data dump?

Or how the CIA funded a History Channel program about all this—to paint anyone searching for the truth as a nutcase?

Or how the co-founder of Jeff Bezos’ starship company wrote a bestselling “fiction” book about this gold becoming the world’s Bitcoin reserve—nine years before Satoshi Nakamoto launched Bitcoin?

Or how I know American ship captains who have moved some of this gold?

Or how there are connections I can’t talk about?

Are we allowed to talk about that yet?

🤪 And definitely don’t read these this nonfiction book

amzn.to/3Q9hOs3

I’ve seen wild things as a ship captain & maritime reporter—USAID & CIA stories that’d turn your hair white. I don’t have a death wish, so I stay quiet…

Unless it’s about USAID & Democrat graft. So, F it.

It all started with a call from a man—let’s call him Derick 🧵 Full disclosure: I’m adding fictional details. Why? Because it’s the CIA—you gotta give them an out, a way to deny involvement.

Consider this their out.

Also, this was over a decade ago, and I didn’t take notes for obvious reasons… so this is all from my faulty memory.

Wow. Wow.

Completely false narrative.

This is insane. I have been saying @ezraklein is THE most reckless journalist in THE most dangerous media organization all election. This cements it.

Here’s proof 🧵

https://twitter.com/josheakle/status/1886984147803250691

So just over 24hours ago @JDVance said the administration is going to move even faster

@JackPosobiec was the first I saw report it 23hrs ago

https://twitter.com/jackposobiec/status/1886877482491515246

Why Can’t Politico Make Payroll Without USAID?

More importantly: Could this be the start of a 2008 type collapse—not for Wall Street, but for NGOs and media organizations? 🧵

https://twitter.com/adamscrabble/status/1887001251168047458

To be clear, I don’t have insight into Politico’s financials.

But if they don’t collapse, other NGOs and grant recipients might.

Here’s why.

I opened my NYTimes app today. They’re trying, but they can’t keep up. News that broke just hours ago is already off the homepage.

THIS IS CRUCIAL

The entire liberal deep state command and control system is broken. Let me explain 🧵

https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1886877482491515246

The NYTimes’ primary function isn’t journalism. It’s narrative coordination—setting the frame so the entire political-media machine knows how to think about an issue before it takes off.

Ever notice how, overnight, everyone starts saying “Biden is sharp as a tack” or “JD Vance is weird”?

It’s not random. It’s a system.

I’m friends with a military helicopter pilot who set up the rotary component of Operation Noble Eagle, (the layered air defense system to secure DC after 9/11)

I write books about transportation incidents (mostly ships)

Here’s what he told me with a breakdown for laymen 🧵 Here’s the PART 1 of his full comment to me.

(I’ll break each component in subsequent posts.)

“It's a 100' AGL hard ceiling for rotorcraft and DCA air traffic control is locked on. Extremely high levels of situational awareness in that chunk of airspace. Many swiss cheese holes have to line up for this to happen. As a former NTSB aircraft accident investigator, I am fighting an immediate bias towards likely human error. A buddy on scene reached out earlier and sounds really rough. Tragic but immediate proximity of SAR assets is about as helpful as one could hope for.

It’s a travesty that Navy Admirals ditched the wool pea coat.

Not just a blow to tradition—it’s a risky move if we expand operations in Greenland. But I think I know why.

A 🧵on why the Navy is no longer cool (or warm without its pea coats)

https://twitter.com/jimlaporta/status/1863340628563935469

When I joined the Navy in 1995, camo was banned off base and aboard ships.

That changed when the Navy shifted to supporting the Army in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Now? Sailors can even wear camo aboard the historic USS Constitution.

Times change—but should traditions?

What if America is already far wealthier than you can imagine?

What if taxes aren’t the only drag on revenue?

What if bureaucracy and monetary leaks are hidden taxes?

What if bureaucracy, foreign aid, financial accounting leaks and taxes are more about control than balancing budgets?

What if $36 of debt isn’t as insurmountable as it seems?

What if, after we eliminate them 🇺🇸 becomes vastly wealthier overnight?

What if American productivity was fully unleashed?

Not saying I believe all this but it’s 💯 important to ask ‘what if’ Part 2:

https://twitter.com/johnkonrad/status/1858191051820806512

Long 🧵warning:

For my entire life, I’ve picked candidates based on rational thinking, but this time I’m going with emotion—“my gut.” One emotion specifically is driving my vote: anger

Biden’s “trash” comment has a deeper meaning, it wasn’t a simple mistake and let me explain why.

There has never been a more emotionally charged election in my lifetime. Sometimes the hope, indignation, incredulity, excitement, shame, frustration, and concern feel like they’re tearing me apart.

It’s tearing some of you apart too, and that’s okay. Emotional response is okay… if it’s authentic.

It’s ok to feel all types of emotion, except one.

We live in a culture that tries to remove emotion from the human experience. This isn’t healthy. You should feel empowered to feel every emotion against the opposition EXCEPT anger.

Anger is dangerous and unauthentic.

John A. Konrad III, my grandpa, had a great Irish-German anger problem. Stories of his rages were legendary, and my dad and uncle suffered the wrath. Not entirely his fault—I blame the PTSD from many bombing runs over Nazi Germany.

John A. Konrad IV, my dad, also had bouts of anger. Less severe, but more imposing because he was 6’2” and 275 lbs of pure muscle. BIG Jack. A Vietnam vet and Bronx firefighter, he could channel the early stages of anger into a stare that would quiet a room and make grown men shake. Unfortunately, I occasionally got to see him past the “in control” phase. It wasn’t pretty.

When you experience rage as a kid, you become very attuned to emerging anger. When you’re the child of a hardened vet who can turn on and off that anger at will, you become very attuned to authentic anger, both controlled and uncontrolled.

I am an expert in very few things, but anger is one of them.

I say this because I’ve been retweeting a lot of posts by angry people lately, and almost all are Democrats. The comments I get are “that’s not anger, that’s passion,” or “she has good reasons for being angry,” or “you’re wrong, John.”

I know anger, and I’m seeing it in abundance today—and the vast majority is on the left.

And my experience comes not just from living with anger but from going out of my way to read and learn about anger.

Why? Because I did not want to pass it on to my son and daughter.

Anger is toxic like no other emotion.

What have I learned from a lifetime studying anger? Lots, but the breakthrough came on a trip to California when I met Marshall Rosenberg, the father of Nonviolent Communication. He taught me an important lesson: all anger derives from misplaced judgment.

Let me repeat: all anger derives from misplaced judgment.

We are angry because we think we know what the other side is thinking. We think we know why they are voting for Kamala or Trump. We think they see the same rational information and pick the idiotic, selfish, or, worse, malevolent choice.

Why I mentioned Grandpa was because I never once witnessed anger in his voice. He was the kindest, most gentle man in my life. I certainly believed the stories of his rages, but I never experienced them.

Why?

Today, I broke down in tears, and the reason dawned on me. Why are so many poor fathers wonderful grandparents?

What happened is my son went to college a few months back, and my wife has been bugging me to disassemble his bed so we can turn his room into an office.

Simple task, but as I was halfway through, something dawned on me. He had slept in this bed his entire life. 18 wonderful years. And now it was going away.

I cried like a baby. Just me. Nobody around to witness it.

What got me was how unexpected it was. One minute I’m listening to music with tools, the next I’m paralyzed with emotion.

The smaller but important lesson here is that time moves quickly, and we should not allow anger to rule any of it. Grandpas have a perspective on time—they understand this. 1/4 But what grandpas (most at least—some men never learn this) know is how impossible it is to understand yourself. I’ve been living in this body for 47 years, and I did not expect to cry today. Yet here we are.

Grandpas understand what dads do not: that their lack of self-understanding is often the cause of kids’ misbehavior.

Kids do not understand their personal behavior or inner rationality. They are kids, learning. This is often what sends parents into rage.

“Why did you do that absolutely idiotic thing, Jimmy?”

Jimmy tells you the reason, and you don’t believe him. You think he’s lying. The thing is, HE IS LYING, but not to you—to himself.

Jimmy doesn’t know why he did it, just like I didn’t realize I was going to cry today. 2/4

My wife is a teacher. Here’s excerpts from the special kids election edition of the @NYTimes being taught in some public schools this week.

Editors note: grown-ups should not read this Apparently Trump thinks everyone should be able to buy fully automatic grenade launchers

keep getting DM’s the same two questions:

1) what ended the Port Strike?

2) Was it @GovRonDeSantis calling the NG?

Here’s the timeline from my sources….

Up until 14:09 on Tuesday all my reliable sources were telling me the ILA was digging in for a long fight

@typesfast - who has the best ocean data in the world - was the first to make bold counter call “with 80% probably it will be over by Tuesday”

His company @flexport has some of the best experts in the business and can see in realtime if ships are diverting or not. That combined with smart staff who understand history, political and economic issues is likely what drove the prediction

Ryan also didn’t hesitate to collect information directly from experts.

The person with the best trucking data (trucks need to start diverting too) is @FreightAlley and he echoed Ryan’s optimism yesterday.

Yesterday afternoon @mercoglianos started warning us at @gCaptain to be ready

Biden then made a statement of support of the union and @SecretaryPete applied pressure on USMX at 8PM. DC was finally waking up

Yesterday afternoon I received information from a source that Daggett was getting death threats and public sentiment was against him. Some of his advisers were suggesting he sit down for a deal

Later I got confirmation from another source along the same lines.

There were two problems with the information that prevented me from making a prediction:

1) other sources were adamant the ILA would not budge on automation

2) we got a statement from ILA confirming that Daggett was thrown by the backlash but it said he was a combat veteran and a fighter who wouldn’t back down

This morning more sources confirmed that DC was waking up and ILA was breaking due to the backlash

@mercoglianos got solid information a deal would be made

I published the article on @gCaptain “TikTok Fury and Death Threats: Will ILA Union Boss Daggett Fold or Double Down?”

I also talked to a source in the Trump camp who assured me DJT had deep knowledge of the issues from his time as a NYC real estate developer and was working the problem. No details how but told to watch for something thst would “move the needle”

Talked to @mercoglianos again and he was confident a deal was coming soon

Around lunch I finally got a hold of a Democrat source who said “it close but there’s a sticking point” I assumed it was automation but they would confirm

At 12:52 @GovRonDeSantis called the national guard to take over the ports in FL

Had a long conversation with Sal @mercoglianos @MikeSchuler around lunch and confidence it would end was high but nobody was sure exactly when

I disappeared into meetings for the rest of the afternoon.

I was hesitant to make a call because numerous sources said the ILA was still dug in over automation.

17:18 Sal calls it outscooping everyone

@MikeSchuler gets it up on @gCaptain just after it becomes official /1 So, what exactly happened?

It’s hard to say for sure, but I’m confident the ILA expected public support—and the backlash flipped the script.

The rest is just my informed speculation:

Biden did a good job threading the needle with by supporting the union but applying gentle pressure behind the scene.

@SecretaryPete helped by finally stepping in.

A source close to Trump told me his NYC real estate meant he understand the dynamics well. While it’s unclear if he directed DeSantis, he likely gave at least tacit approval for calling in the National Guard.

Sources told me the deal was nearly done, but no one was sure if it would take hours or days. DeSantis’ move likely sealed the deal, removing any lingering doubt.

Both Trump and Kamala did the country a favor by not turning this into a political fight. Trump had more to gain but also more risk—if the strike dragged on, he could’ve picked up populist support, but Kamala might’ve taken full credit if a deal was struck right before the election.

Kamala stayed quiet, but with Marty Walsh as a close adviser, a union pro, she likely knew more than she let on.

I think all parties made fairly smart moves and I am very glad nobody leveraged this hard for political gain!

That’s a win for the entire nation!!

All this plus a very civil and smart VP debate gives me renewed hope for our future.

/2

Craig has an excellent post on the ILA, but what’s missing is a deep dive into the organization they’re negotiating with: USMX

If the ILA is “bad”, USMX is possibly worse

Who are they and why?

USMX (United States Maritime Alliance) represents shipping companies, port operators, and other maritime players along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts. Their role? To negotiate labor contracts and operational policies with dockworker unions like the ILA, ensuring smooth port operations.

But here’s where it gets tricky: despite its American identity, USMX is heavily influenced by foreign interests, including massive overseas corporations like the China-controlled COSCO Shipping.

Although USMX is supposed to represent U.S. interests, foreign-controlled companies within the alliance have significant sway over key decisions. Why? These large companies, with deeper pockets and bigger fleets, control more resources, giving them outsized influence in decision-making. Here’s how they wield their power:

1.Board Representation: Foreign shipping giants often hold significant seats on USMX’s board, shaping agendas and steering decisions.
2.Economic Clout: The financial contributions of the largest foreign ship owners give them more say in how resources are allocated within the alliance, often to suit their own interests.
3.Committees and Expertise: Employees from these companies often lead technical committees, giving them control over critical policy recommendations.
4.Strategic Coalitions: These companies form alliances with other members to drive consensus on issues that benefit them, amplifying their collective influence.
5.Information Access: With access to greater data and resources, they can craft well-founded proposals that steer USMX’s strategy.

So, while USMX negotiates with American dockworkers, foreign ship owners shape these labor negotiation policies.

When USMX prioritizes keeping trade flowing by catering to foreign interests, the U.S. risks losing control over its own critical shipping infrastructure, raising concerns for national security and long-term economic stability. /1 That maybe ok when we are talking about a NATO ally like the Danish company @Maersk or the French @cmacgm

But China’s CCP controlled @COSCOSHIPPING has a board seat too?

How Could China Exert Influence on USMX Decisions?

1.Economic Leverage: China, as a major global trading partner, wields substantial influence by controlling the flow of goods. By offering increased cargo traffic or threatening to divert shipping routes to other countries, they can pressure USMX into making decisions that favor their interests. A promise of more business can entice USMX to align with China’s trade preferences, while the threat of reduced cargo could financially strain U.S. ports.
2.Influence Operations: Behind-the-scenes lobbying is another tactic. China can engage intermediaries or businesspeople with connections to both Chinese interests and USMX, subtly encouraging policies that align with Chinese objectives. These indirect methods create the appearance of a fair negotiation, while steering decisions toward outcomes beneficial to China’s shipping dominance.
Chain Dependence: Many U.S. industries rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing. China could highlight this dependency, reminding USMX that disruptions in their trade relationship could severely impact the supply chain. This indirect pressure encourages USMX to adopt policies that prioritize maintaining smooth trade with China, even if it compromises broader U.S. interests.
4.Leveraging International Regulations: China also works through international bodies like the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to shape global shipping standards. By pushing for regulations that align with its own shipping practices, China can exert influence on USMX to adopt similar policies. These standards may be presented as neutral but are often designed to favor Chinese shipping interests, creating further leverage in global trade negotiations.

While these tactics are subtle, they exemplify the complex web of economic and political influence in international trade, demonstrating how a foreign power like China can quietly shape U.S. maritime policies through economic and regulatory pressure.

/33.Supply

The International Longshoreman Union was founded in 1892 but by the end of World War 2 it was a hotbed of organized crime, communist sympathy and corruption.

How did they clean up their act? (or did they?)

And how did Harold Dagget become a star?
A 🧵 There had always been pilferage and corruption at the docks. This is because cargo was carried on stick ships and laoded onto ships by hand.

IT was just too easy to break open a wooden box in the hold of a ship and steal high value cargo. Or you could "accidently" drop a box and claim damage.