This is the Russian Flagship #Moskva before she sank. It's impossible to fully assess the situation aboard based on one picture but marine salvage masters must make assumptions based on little information. As a ship captain and ship fire author here's what appears to be likely🧵
The first question any salvage expert will ask is how close is she to sinking. The red line on this photo shows the approximate location of the new waterline. As you can see by comparing the photos she has lost a significant amount of buoyancy and is listing to port.
She, however, is probably not in immediate danger of sinking for a few reasons: 1) She has some reserve buoyancy left because she has not reached deck edge immersion, which is the point where no freeboard is left and stability goes from bad to worse.
2) The spraying water means they have at least emergency power which could be - if the crew had enough time - set up to help dewater the ship. 3) The weather is relatively calm. If the waves picked up the danger of sinking would increase exponentially.
What else do we know?
The Lifeboats have been deployed and nobody is on deck, even back aft where it's smoke-free. Hoses are rigged to spray in the air. Those could have been rigged to help cool the ship but more likely are there to let nearby ships know when she lost power.
So it's likely been fully abandoned. It's possible that some people remain down below but staying in the engine room without proper boundary cooling and topside assistance from trained shipboard firefighters would be suicidal.
What else do we know?
The Smoke is dark and heavy. This is a serious fire with a lot of heat. Dark smoke is a result of the burning of heavy fuels or synthetic materials and incomplete combustion. It's a very hazardous situation.
We know the picture was taken relatively soon after the fire grew this large. We can assume this with some confidence because most of the grat paint is intact. Another hour under those conditions and the paint will likely peel and get covered in soot.
We know don't see any nearby ships. Professional salvage teams require a lot of heavy equipment and firefighting gear. They would likely get a tugboat to spray the forward end with fire monitors to cool the ship before boarding with fireteams. No nearby ships are cooling her.
The next question is why? There is a rescue ship nearby (that ship took this photo) Is she not equipped with fire monitors capable of shooting water outward? Or is she keeping a safe distance because there is a real danger of a secondary explosion from munitions stored aboard?
Next, we have to ask what's unusual about this photo? To me, the most striking part is the smoke is being blown forward and she has reserved buoyancy. This is a dangerous situation but the aft helideck is free of smoke and should be cool enough to work.
If this was a commercial ship the captain would likely have abandoned "non-essential" personnel and regrouped his fire teams at a "safe staging area" (likely the helideck) but this is a warship so the salvage team would have to know the location of all explosives before boarding
Finally, us captains don't care about equipment, we live and die by one rule during emergencies at sea. In an explosion of this magnitude, our job is not to save everyone but to save the highest percentage of people possible. This could lead to hard decisions.
As a commercial ship captain, the likely correct answer here is to abandon the ship knowing she would likely sink, and let insurance cover the loss.. but a Navy captain does not have that luxury.
The biggest difference between a commercial ship captain and a navy captain is that we civilians only have to worry about our own crew. Navy guys don't have that luxury. They must think about their crew and the strategic mission.
Remember the golden rule - "save as many people as possible" - well, the people a navy captain has to think about are not just the crewmembers but also the army and marines his ship provides air cover and artillery support for.
By abandoning his ship early he may save his crew but lose the war.
By most accounts, this flagship ship was critical to these war efforts. My best assumption - again based on too little evidence - is because of 1) the importance of this ship to the war effort 2) because the Montreux convention prevents Russia from sending a replacement
3) the calm weather, reserve buoyancy, and the fact she still had power means she could possibly have been saved 4) the fact the helideck was smoke-free
For these reasons my best guess is the captain of the Moskva abandoned his ship too early.
P.S. If you've read this far and want to learn more about evacuating a ship under hotter and more explosive conditions please consider reading my book amzn.to/38XY7kF
Update: looks like a salvage tug WAS alongside at the time of this photo. Good catch @MisrememberedY
UPDATE 2: A few have pointed out there is a boat, probably a salvage tug, close alongside starboard aft.
In that case, the water stream pointing aft is likely coming from the tug & means there isn’t much heat stbd aft. Salvage tug monitors (like garden hoses) have straight spray and fan spray… you would use fan spray as a shield if heat and smoke were a problem. Example:
Many older fire monitors require special pumps that can’t be turned off and on with a switch… so they are probably just spraying it aft to keep it out of the way but available if the smoke and heat shifts.
There is a *small* chance they hooked the tug pump into the ships’ main to provide water pressure to the pipe on the port side… so it’s possible the ship did lose emergency power.
It is also possible the tug is made fast and is pulling the ship astern. That might explain why the smoke is streaming fwd and away from the heli-deck. Hard to tell for certain.
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BREAKING NEWS: Massive shipbuilding changes in DC. None of them good.
@gCaptain has confirmed from a White House source that Trump has closed the shipbuilding office at the NSC.
Reuters reports that Ian Bennitt, the President’s Special Assistant for Shipbuilding at the White House, has been fired.
Favored candidates for Provost and Superintendent positions at the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy have received denial notices.
At a recent USNI shipbuilding conference, it became clear: major shipbuilding primes are actively fighting plans to expand commercial shipbuilding.
Sources inside the Pentagon say Admirals and SES are digging in their heels on several key shipbuilding objectives.
Some Jones Act companies now expressing fear that building new ships could devalue their current fleets.
Congressional sources say progress on the SHIPS Act is stalling in committee.
It’s also unlikely the new Commandant will be confirmed before the August break.
We’ve confirmed that the French billionaire who offered to invest $20B in U.S. shipping sent a letter to Trump saying he’s not getting the support he needs to move forward.
The U.S. Coast Guard is slashing cutter orders left and right.
Reports from my sources in Korea say the new far-left, pro-China president is chilling U.S.-Korean shipyard cooperation.
Nobody has seen or heard from @SecDuffy’s new acting Maritime Administrator.
The plan to centralize shipbuilding under the Department of Commerce is apparently stalled or stalling.
I spoke with half a dozen senior sources in DC—every single one is frustrated.
Yes, there’s still optimism around @SECNAV’s commitment to shipbuilding but his plate is full with emerging priorities
Not a single Admiral has publicly supported the SHIPS Act or the White House’s “Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance” plan.
Deadlines are being missed or pencil-whipped on the Maritime Executive Order, and with the NSC shipbuilding office closing, no one knows how the next deadline will be met.
Zero follow-through on Trump’s State of the Union promise to open a dedicated White House shipbuilding office.
New intel confirms more Navy shipbuilding delays, including further slippage in carrier programs.
Despite Trump requesting her resignation, the rogue U.S. delegate to the @IMOHQ still attended last month’s meeting, compromising U.S. objectives. @michaelgwaltz’s confirmation as UN ambassador is still not scheduled.
A Panama Canal pilot confirms U.S. military ships are still paying for transits, and @Michael_Yon confirms that China’s bridge over the canal is still under construction.
New Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea point to a failure of massive US bombing (first revealed during signalgate) to reopen the Red Sea.
It’s been 252 days since the election, and not a single new ship has been ordered.
Still no updates on public hearings into Biden-era maritime disasters, including the Gaza Pier and Baltimore Bridge.
The Baltimore Bridge removal is delayed another 9 months, and retrofits to prevent future bridge strikes around the nation are postponed.
Still zero word from @PeteHegseth on fixing the Army Corps of Engineers, the agency responsible for inland rivers and dredging.
What am I missing? The number of panicked and/or depressed calls I’ve received from DC in the last few days is unreal.
I’m struggling to find a silver lining.
For background listen to @mercoglianos and I on the @CavasShips podcast last week
Here’s my thread on what we know so far. For notes I have been a competitive sailor and I am licensed to captain ships of any size but I have not sailed tall ships. 🧵
First of all this photo confirms there were Mexican Navy’s Cadets on the highest yardarms.
The incident happened at 8:30PM with current traveling upriver.
Currents aren’t strong but it’s only 1.5 hours after low tide so they were still building and hadn’t reached maximum which happens approximately 3 hours after low tide.
Average maximum current at the bridge is usually 2-3 knots.
What can you tell me about the current in the east river at nine pm may 17th based on this data
But the wind was also blowing about 10 knots from the southwest to the northeast
So it would have contributed to pushing the ship into the bridge
Nothing in my 18 years since founding gCaptain has caused more panic than @USTradeRep’s recent proposal to charge companies that own Chinese ships $1 million per port call in the US.
USTR held hearings on the fees and today issued major modifications. 🧵
The biggest problem was the original port fees proposed by Trump late February was there were ship size and type agnostic.
All Chinese built ships would be charged $1.5 million per port and $1 million for any ship owned by a company that operates chinese built ships.
This was ok for a very large containership with 17,000 boxes that could absorb the fee
But it would have been devastating for a bulker that only carries low value cement.