AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Apr 18 7 tweets 2 min read
This is a myth that you still hear now and then: modern diesels actually *clean* the air. Now again the biggest newspaper of the Netherlands.

What they don't tell you is that this is only true for large trucks on dirty highways and that diesels don't help against climate change.
Why only large trucks on dirty roads? Well, for normal cars the amount of cheating is so eye watering that diesels are extremely dirty #dieselgate

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

This is still true: e.g. katalysers are regularly burnt off to clean them. Not during testing of course.
If you use ad-blue you might have one of the few "not too bad" diesels, but even with ad-blue chances are your exhaust is very dirty.

For large trucks the testing is somewhat better and here originates the claim that on a dirty road they can reduce NOx. BUT it's irrelevant.
First it's irrelevant because these engines reduce some stuff that's measured, only to increase other unhealthy stuff that's not. Ask @mzjacobson if you are really interested.

We will be rid of diesel long before the industry becomes honest and the engines clean.
Second it's irrelevant because of this thing called global warming. CO2 emissions of diesel cars are not that much lower than gasoline in the real world and close to their economic and theoretical maximum.

Yes, you can shave off ~30% more, theoretically, but that's about it.
EVs already shave off ~50% for trucks and ~70% of cars.

Once production and driving are done on low carbon electricity you can come close to eliminating CO2 emissions all together.

Mathematically speaking that's infinitely better.
So I can understand the frustration of engineers in academia and in industry who devoted their life to improving diesel who find they are increasingly irrelevant. But don't be confused: it's on the way out and for good reasons.

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More from @AukeHoekstra

Apr 15
Very good graphic that clearly shows how global warming causes more heatwaves, droughts and rainstorms.

But I think it should include "cold snaps" that currently kill more people: they decrease because of global warming. And generally we are getting safer.

But there's more.
I dislike the scare mongering: I don't like hopelessness and depression based on untruths. It makes us less effective.

So here's three links showing *less* people currently die because of global warming:
thelancet.com/journals/lanpl…

ourworldindata.org/century-disast…

And while climate related deaths are around 25k/y, we don't hear nearly enough about how cars are the major source of death for children and how preventable causes of death like diarrhea, malaria and hunger kill millions every year: poverty is the #1 preventable cause of death.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 10
*We WILL Fix Climate Change*

The situation is serious but we ARE making progress and doom scenarios are less probable.

I agree with *every sentence* of this superb @Kurz_Gesagt video!

So I've made a summary thread.
🧵
Our story starts with the observation that politicians are not doing enough and our greed and the fossil industry still manage to set the agenda. This leads to pervasive feelings of gloom and doom, especially among younger people.
The most widely shared stories talk about doomsday scenarios that are presented as basically unavoidable. Giving up seems the most logical thing to do.

BUT it's NOT TRUE.
You are NOT doomed.
Humanity is NOT doomed.
Read 20 tweets
Apr 3
The availability of such tanks is a remarkable step forward in hydrogen aviation. The system becomes 67 kilos when vacuum insulation is added but still...

This means weight for weight, a plane on hydrogen can fly *four*times*further* than a plane on kerosine!
And of course you can make hydrogen from renewable energy, it doesn't emit CO2 and no PM/carcinogens (that last one as long as you burn it in an electric motor), and would make planes less noisy.
The only drawback is that hydrogen is more voluminous. In this case the volume of this tank is ~2.5m3 without cladding and maybe ~3m3 with cladding. That contains 150 liters of hydrogen or 5 MWh.

A 3m3 kerosine tank would be heavier but hold ~30 MWh or 6x more.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 30
This data shows again how solar and wind (S+W) displace fossil fuels.

I think combining S+W with smart ways to deal with intermittancy (like eFuels) will take us to 100% S+W.

Let me explain the principles again.
I feel that esp. in the US there is a strong movement that's opposed to the idea of getting to 100% S+W (and some hydro and small other renewable sources).

They have dug into the position that more than 80% S+W becomes prohibitively expensive, is unwise, et cerera.
You recognize this tribe by their fondness for the words "firm" and "dispatchable" power (as opposed to S+W) and sometimes even "fuel savers" as a description of S+W to imply they can only go so far in challenging the primacy of glorious fuels.
Read 16 tweets
Mar 18
Un-fricking-believable!

BMW CEO has the galls to say the EU should prolong it's addiction to oil because otherwise it might become more dependent on raw battery materials from countries outside the EU.

I just wrote a thread explaining that's nonsense.
But this is just evil. Image
This is like a serial murderer saying he should be able to continue his killing spree because "it is possible that some of my victims could have done something bad in the future".

Here's the link to the article.
subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2022/0…
Sorry for the anger but such hypocritical opportunism while we are funding Putin's war (and causing global warming) by using the combustion engines he wants to keep producing...

And then this transparent attempt to delay and sow confusion...

It should be called out I think.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 18
I've been asked about this tweet a lot. It's roughly true. But the worry that the rising costs of raw materials doom electric vehicles is unfounded.

E.g. the first 4 raw materials made up about 1.5% of the sticker price of the car in 2020 and there are alternatives.

But...
🧵
First about the costs of raw materials. This gets talked about a lot but in the absolute sense the impact is limited.

In 2020 Roland Berger estimated that lithium, nickel/manganese and cobalt cost just €10.60/kWh.
coreconsultantsgroup.com/raw-materials-… Image
Recently spot market prices have gone through the roof: lithium ~5x, cobalt ~3x... But most battery manufacturers don't pay spot market prices because they have long term contracts that fluctuate far less.
tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lith… ImageImageImageImage
Read 12 tweets

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