Russian combat & operational attrition of its tactical trucks has to be huge such that we are seeing Russian civilian vehicles in lieu of tactical trucks Mariupol.
There are huge economic implications here for the Russian economy.
2/
Civilian trucks taken from Russia & killed in Ukraine will not be there for the Russian economy.
Most Russian civilian trucks going to Ukraine simply won't be coming back because necessary spare parts are not in the Russian supply system.
3/
This is going to cause huge knock-on effects in terms of food & goods distribution in Russia real soon now.
Think shortage of everything due to a lack of civilian transport.
This will be the stuff of a economic depression & revolution.
4/End
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"However, Ukraine has no effective options to counter a prolonged Russian artillery offensive. This should trouble those who want to see Ukraine prevail as Russia can rely upon an extensive supply of artillery platforms and munitions that it...
3/
I simply didn't expect the LNR, DNR, & Russian Merc low standards of combat effectiveness to be the entire Russian Army level including the Regime Security units.
It isn't hard to run a truck around a motor pool once a month to see that they don't get sun bleached to death.
2/
Yet the Russian Army let that happen to $15 million anti-aircraft missile complexes.
Covid-19 lockdown political blowback is arriving at gale force combined with the bad economic times of collapsed world supply chains & inflation.
Overturning lockdown policies & specifically making illegal the public health tool of firing people for refusing to take vaccines
2/
...as a fundamental civil right, and firing public health officials who advocated that policy as horrible examples for the future, will be on the top of the populist agenda.
And note:
This prediction doesn't mean I endorse this on-coming reality.
3/
This was recognized after the class was built, but not retrofitted.
3rd, Russian Navy damage control was hollowed out by Putin Regime corruption. The water was about 50F at 1 AM with gundecked survival gear & life rafts etc when the Neptun salvo flew in.
Whelp, it looks like the Putin Regime has realized it can't hide the humiliating loss of the Moskva and now Putin has decided to make lemonade out of the lemon flavored s--tburger Ukraine force fed his regime. 🧵
This may fix the short term Russian manpower problem.
It will make the corruption-power sharing problems much worse for Putin as he tries to eat the corruption-based income streams of the Oligarchs & Generals to fund the war.
Those guys have no future in a wartime 'North Koreanized' Putin Regime & they know it.
This is where
2/
... the internal contradictions of the Russian Kleptocracy will start to tear the Putin Regime apart.
Kleptocracies are about money over power.
Thieves don't stop stealing while there is a war on.
3/
This is a question worth addressing vis-a'-vis Russian Armor & convoy tactics in Ukraine.
This will be a compare & contrast thread 🧵which is more @The_Tech_Son & @Chieftain_armor lane than mine, but I'll try & muddle through by giving visual examples 1/