Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Apr 19 โ€ข 5 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ attacks so far appear to be methodical & rely heavily on ground-based fires.

-22 ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ battalion tactical groups (BTGs) have reportedly massed in the Izium area for offensive operations.

- Overall, 76 BTGs in Donbas region & in๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ's southeast (per U.S. DoD).

map: @War_Mapper
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ forces appear to attempt to disrupt Russian attacks by launching localized counterattacks southeast of Kharkiv in the direction of Kupiansk, an important railroad junction in Kharkiv oblast, in order to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication.

map: @JominiW
~ 22 ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บBTGs around Izium apparently consist of elements of 20th & 35th CAAs/1st GTA plus VDV forces.

Should also add that ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆpush toward Kupiansk is unlikely given that it would require pushing back ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ frontline in north/northeast of Kharkiv. That's a tough proposition.
Additionally, I should add that most of what has been reported in the last few hours appears to be๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ preparatory artillery bombardments (e.g., Russian fire on Ukrainian positions in Donbas last night๐Ÿ‘‡) & localized probing attacks.

(video via Red Fish Bubble 2.0)
U.S. thinks that โ€œlimited offensive operationsโ€ supported by long-range fires have begun in the Donbas region as a prelude to a larger ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บoffensive. ๐Ÿ‘‡

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More from @HoansSolo

Apr 21
Quick update on the military situation in Ukraine (Donbas) on April 21:

- no major frontline changes/breakthroughs

- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ long-range fires & slow advance continue
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forces reportedly took Stara Krasnyanka
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forces reportedly occupied Rubizhne

map: @War_Mapper Image
-๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forces are slowly advancing in Popasna
-๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forces continue to attack ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ defensive positions in vicinity Avdiivka (unsuccessful thus far)
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forces are advancing northwest of Staromlynivka towards Temyrivka

map: @Militarylandnet Image
Mariupol:

- The ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆAzovstal defensive perimeter remains intact in Mariupol.

- Around 500 fighters (๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆBorder Guards/National Police) have reportedly been all successfully evacuated to Azovstal Plant from another part of the city. Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 20
Quick update on the military situation in Ukraine (Donbas) on April 20:

- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ long-range fires & probing attacks continue
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forces have reached outskirts of Lozove
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forces have taken control of Kreminna & are pushing toward Zarichne and Torske

map: @War_Mapper Image
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forces have reportedly also launched an attack south of Izium towards Slovyansk.
-๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ forces repulsed this attack.

Note:
- fog of war still applies
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ efforts look like probing attacks for the most part; fixing ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ forces & push on where opportune.

map: @Militarylandnet Image
- ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ forces repelled multiple ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ attacks against
Avdiyivka in past 24 hours

- conflicting reports about ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forces being pushed out
of Marinka in ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ counter-attack.

- ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ repelled ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ attack on Oleksandrivka

map: @War_Mapper Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 18
Quick update on the military situation in Ukraine on April 18:

- ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ forces have reportedly seized Bairak, part of Kutuzivka in north-east (near Kharkiv) & Lebyazhe, Bazalievka in east; ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ forces also reportedly counter-attacked near Kreminna.

map: @Nrg8000
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forces attacked near Izyum/Kreminna/advanced south of Borova. Conflicting reports whether Kreminna has been captured or not by Russians.
Mariupol (April 18):

-๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forces have reportedly captured Prymorskyi district/majority of port area.

-๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ forces are maintaining defensive perimeter around Azovstal plant.
maps (previous tweet included): @Militarylandnet
Read 7 tweets
Apr 12
โ€œThere is a considerable risk that NATO countries will pull whatever worn-out armored vehicles they have in storage and begin to ship them off to Ukraine. This would be less than helpful.โ€ h/t โฆ@Jack_Watlingโฉ via โฆ@WarOnTheRocksโฉ warontherocks.com/2022/04/supporโ€ฆ
โ€œThe prospect of Ukraine receiving a myriad of vehicles with completely different spare requirements, characteristics, and levels of wear would be a logistical catastrophe.โ€
โ€œInstead, NATO allies should standardize around as few types as possible of armored vehicles (for which a production line is still open) and focus on providing quantity. The exact type of vehicle chosen is less important than the consistency and parts availability.โ€
Read 5 tweets
Apr 11
A few quick thoughts on๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Army Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) to build on this interesting ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡

1. Prior to the outbreak of the war, there was an ongoing debate whether the use of BTGs indicates ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ continuing struggles to deploy operational brigades & regiments or whether BTGs offer tactical value per se in large-scale interstate conflict (not mutually exclusive of course).
An initial assessment of the last 5 weeks of the war in Ukraine appears to indicate that the former is likelier than the latter--at least from a structural/force design perspective with all the usual caveats that apply to make such a judgement mid-war.
Read 11 tweets
Apr 10
Interesting piece by @timjudah1 containing interesting details about ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ bottom-up tactical adaptations in the first week of the war.

ft.com/content/e87fdcโ€ฆ
"People trapped behind Russian lines using chatbots, he said, were playing a 21st century version of partisans behind Nazi lines during the second world war."
"To make sure that the Russians do not feed Ukrainian positions into the chatbot, says Banik, somewhere in Ukraine teams filter reports before they are passed to the military."
Read 5 tweets

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