๐บ๐ฆ forces appear to attempt to disrupt Russian attacks by launching localized counterattacks southeast of Kharkiv in the direction of Kupiansk, an important railroad junction in Kharkiv oblast, in order to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication.
~ 22 ๐ท๐บBTGs around Izium apparently consist of elements of 20th & 35th CAAs/1st GTA plus VDV forces.
Should also add that ๐บ๐ฆpush toward Kupiansk is unlikely given that it would require pushing back ๐ท๐บ frontline in north/northeast of Kharkiv. That's a tough proposition.
Additionally, I should add that most of what has been reported in the last few hours appears to be๐ท๐บ preparatory artillery bombardments (e.g., Russian fire on Ukrainian positions in Donbas last night๐) & localized probing attacks.
(video via Red Fish Bubble 2.0)
U.S. thinks that โlimited offensive operationsโ supported by long-range fires have begun in the Donbas region as a prelude to a larger ๐ท๐บoffensive. ๐
-๐ท๐บ forces are slowly advancing in Popasna
-๐ท๐บ forces continue to attack ๐บ๐ฆ defensive positions in vicinity Avdiivka (unsuccessful thus far)
- ๐ท๐บ forces are advancing northwest of Staromlynivka towards Temyrivka
- The ๐บ๐ฆAzovstal defensive perimeter remains intact in Mariupol.
- Around 500 fighters (๐บ๐ฆBorder Guards/National Police) have reportedly been all successfully evacuated to Azovstal Plant from another part of the city.
Quick update on the military situation in Ukraine (Donbas) on April 20:
- ๐ท๐บ long-range fires & probing attacks continue
- ๐ท๐บ forces have reached outskirts of Lozove
- ๐ท๐บ forces have taken control of Kreminna & are pushing toward Zarichne and Torske
Quick update on the military situation in Ukraine on April 18:
- ๐บ๐ฆ forces have reportedly seized Bairak, part of Kutuzivka in north-east (near Kharkiv) & Lebyazhe, Bazalievka in east; ๐บ๐ฆ forces also reportedly counter-attacked near Kreminna.
โThere is a considerable risk that NATO countries will pull whatever worn-out armored vehicles they have in storage and begin to ship them off to Ukraine. This would be less than helpful.โ h/t โฆ@Jack_Watlingโฉ via โฆ@WarOnTheRocksโฉ warontherocks.com/2022/04/supporโฆ
โThe prospect of Ukraine receiving a myriad of vehicles with completely different spare requirements, characteristics, and levels of wear would be a logistical catastrophe.โ
โInstead, NATO allies should standardize around as few types as possible of armored vehicles (for which a production line is still open) and focus on providing quantity. The exact type of vehicle chosen is less important than the consistency and parts availability.โ
1. Prior to the outbreak of the war, there was an ongoing debate whether the use of BTGs indicates ๐ท๐บ continuing struggles to deploy operational brigades & regiments or whether BTGs offer tactical value per se in large-scale interstate conflict (not mutually exclusive of course).
An initial assessment of the last 5 weeks of the war in Ukraine appears to indicate that the former is likelier than the latter--at least from a structural/force design perspective with all the usual caveats that apply to make such a judgement mid-war.
"People trapped behind Russian lines using chatbots, he said, were playing a 21st century version of partisans behind Nazi lines during the second world war."
"To make sure that the Russians do not feed Ukrainian positions into the chatbot, says Banik, somewhere in Ukraine teams filter reports before they are passed to the military."