1) At the end of February Germany's defense industry sends Scholz a long list of all available weapons. 2) Scholz doesn't share the list with Ukraine. 3) Scholz says that there are no more weapons left in Germany to give to Ukraine.
1/7
4) Germany's defense industry leakes the list to Ukraine's ambassador. 5) Scholz says that the weapons on the list don't work. 6) The defense industry denies this and leakes the list to the press. 7) Scholz states Ukrainians can't master the weapons in the available time.
2/7
8) German defense experts tell the German press that Ukrainians can master the weapons in 2-3 weeks. 9) Scholz says the weapons are needed by NATO and NATO must approve their transfer. 10) NATO officials and German generals deny this.
3/7
11) Scholz says no other NATO/EU ally is delivering heavy weapons to Ukraine. 12) The US, UK, Australia, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Turkey, Italy, Finland, Denmark, Romania, Netherlands, etc. publish the lists of heavy weapon they deliver to Ukraine.
4/7
13) Under pressure Scholz announces €2 billion for Ukraine's military. 14) German parliamentarians find out that it's really just €1 billion, which won't be available for another 2-3 months, and then Scholz can veto or delay indefinitely every item Ukraine wants to buy.
5/7
15) The US, France, Poland, Romania, Japan, the UK and Italy, plus the heads of EU and NATO spend an afternoon trying to talk sense into Scholz. 16) Scholz makes a statement and says Ukraine can have the €1 billion now and order whatever it wants from the list.
6/7
17) Ukraine's ambassador says that Scholz removed all the items Ukraine actually wants from the list before giving it to Ukraine and what remains on the list is just a fraction of the €1 billion.
Scholz isn't incompetent or mendacious... he just works for the russians.
7/7
18) Scholz claims that there is no ammunition anymore for the Leopard tanks and Marder infantry fighting vehicles. 19) Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Egypt, the US, Japan, South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, Egypt respectively France are saying the produce these ammo types.
8/n
20) Scholz says countries delivering armored vehicles to Ukraine will be attacked by russia with nuclear weapons. 21) The US, UK, Australia, France, Poland, Spain, Italy, Romania, Slovakia, Czechia, Netherlands, Denmark all report they were not hit by nuclear weapons.
9/n
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2 days ago I did a thread about the reasons russia can't defeat Ukraine and yet is still a deadly threat to Europe and NATO (link to the thread the next tweet).
Today I will talk about three of the fronts of a russia-Europe war: 1) Black Sea 2) Baltic Sea 3) North Atlantic
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These three fronts will be air and sea battles, while Finland and the Baltics will be air and land battles; about which I will talk in another thread in the coming days.
I do not believe the US under control of Trump or Vance would come to the aid 2/n
• russia has no chance to defeat Ukraine
• russia is a deadly threat to NATO and the EU
Both of these are true... because as of 2025 Ukraine fields a far more capable military than NATO's 30 European members combined (!).
Let me explain.
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As of August 2025 russia fields more than 1,3 million troops; at least half of which are fighting in or against Ukraine.
Ukraine has an estimated 1 million troops... maybe even 1,1 million troops. NATO's European members have double that: some 2.2 million troops, but 2/n
(there is always a "but" with European militaries):
• with more than double the personnel European NATO members manage to field only 20% more combat brigades than Ukraine. Partly because Western navies and air forces are bigger, but mostly because in all European militaries 3/n
People forget that for most if its history Europe was much, much more militarized than even during the Cold War.
Italy, from the end of the Third War of Independence in 1866 to 1939 fielded always 360-400 battalions, which fell to 110-115 during the Cold War, as the US
1/14
backed its European allies with the its massive air force. Today Italy fields 41 battalions (infantry, tanks, recon, special forces, rangers).
Likewise the British Army fielded for most of its history (especially after the 1908 Haldane reforms) 450-480 battalions, which came 2/n
in three types: 150-160 regular battalions (of which a third was always in India), around 100 reserve battalions to provide replacements for the regular battalions, and 200-220 territorial battalions, which (at least on paper) could not be deployed overseas. The British Army
3/n
And this is how Berlin would look like 3 days after putin attacks Europe... because Germany doesn't have the air defence ammo to defend any of its city for more than 2 days.
1/12
This is Copenhagen.
And this is how Copenhagen would look like the morning after putin attacks Europe... because Denmark doesn't have any air defence to defend itself.
2/12
This is Paris.
And this is how Paris would look like a day after putin attacks Europe... because France only has SAMP/T air defence systems, which is as of now has very limited capabilities against ballistic missiles.
3/12
Are the American M142 HIMARS and the M270A2 MLRS the best rocket/missile launchers... yes, they are.
Should Europe buy them? No.
Not as long as @LockheedMartin doesn't have a production line IN EUROPE for GMLRS, GMLRS-ER, ATACMS and PrSM missiles... but as long as Europe 1/9
is ordering only itsy-bitsy amounts of missiles, there is no incentive for Lockheed Martin to produce missiles in Europe... which means at any given moment MAGA can deny Europe the needed missiles to defend itself against a russian attack.
So... Europe can either order 10,000
2/n
missiles per year,... or have a look at the second best rocket/missile launcher: Israel's PULS.
Should Europe buy it? No.
Because the missile production line in Israel is too small to support Europe's missile needs... again, Europe would have to either commit to buy 10,000 3/n
Let's run some numbers on Ukraine's brilliant operation to take out russia's strategic aviation deep in russia and Siberia.
8× containers are visible in this image
As Ukraine sent 2× containers to each of the 5× air bases they attacked, another 2× must be out of sight. 1/6
Each container roof seems to have housed 9 compartments. Here we can see that at 3× per compartments, but they might have even had space for 4× drones.
Quick math: that's 27× or 36× drones.
Two containers per air base: 54× or 72× drones
But (!) not all compartments likely 2/6
held drones.
As we saw in this video from on of the containers launching drones, the roof of the containers slid to the side and fell down... so one compartment might have housed the motor and system to slide the roof off.
Also all the containers self-destructed once they 3/6