Thread by @debra_caplan

In 1959, Eugene Ionesco wrote the absurdist play Rhinoceros in which one by one, an entire town of people suddenly transform into rhinos. At first, people are horrified but as the contagion spreads, (almost) everyone comes to accept that turning into a rhinoceros is fine. 1/

Rhinoceros is a play about conformity and mob mentality and mass delusion, about how easy it is for people to accept outrageous/unacceptable things simply because everyone else is doing it.

In the end, the protagonist Berenger is the only human left. 2/

I've been thinking about Rhinoceros a lot this week, as we enter this new season of "return to pre-Covid normalcy" on hyperdrive.

There are many good reasons to try to avoid getting infected with Covid. It's not innocuous and it's dangerous to pretend otherwise. 3/

But saying that feels a little like Berenger's monologue at the end of the play, where he declares his intent to remain human to a herd of rhinoceroses who no longer understand him. The contagion has already spread, and nobody is listening anymore. 4/

"You'll get used to it, you know," Daisy (the love interest) tells Berenger. "It's the wisest course to take," his co-worker Dudard agrees.

"Well, I can't get used to it," Berenger insists.

"I wonder if one oughtn't to give it a try?" Dudard replies. Then, he becomes a rhino 5/

Later, as more and more of their friends get infected, Daisy begins to change her mind about the value of staying human.

"Those are the real people," Daisy says, about the rhinos. "They look happy. They were right to do what they did." 6/

"We're the ones who are doing right, Daisy, I assure you," Berenger insists.

"It's the world that's right - not you and me," Daisy tells him.

And then, she becomes a rhino too. 7/

Over the last few weeks, as mitigation measures drop, millions of Americans who were previously cautious about Covid (and millions more who never were) have decided that it's time to move on and pretend that it's 2019 again. 8/

Bars and restaurants are packed with unmasked people, mask mandates hardly exist anywhere and are no longer tied to infection rates, the new CDC map makes it look like everything is under control, and we seem to have all collectively decided that Covid is "over." 9/

Let's be clear about what is actually happening here.

The idea that we can live with Covid WITHOUT any mitigation measures and expect things to turn out ok (both for individuals and as a society) is a lie.

We are watching an astounding mass delusion unfold in real time. 10/

On an individual level:

My family and I are fully (3x for all eligible, 2x for kids) vaccinated, young, and healthy. I am no longer worried about any of us dying or being hospitalized from Covid.

However, that does not mean that getting infected repeatedly is safe. 11/

A growing body of evidence points to the prevalence of Long Covid after Covid infection. Each infection is a roll of the dice. Several experts have recently estimated the likelihood of Long Covid in a fully vaxxed person at 5%.

https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1515751562248814593?s=20&t=BvXTuuj7cPdjCBex2a9cIw

/12

So, each time my household of 4 people gets infected, we each have a ~5% chance of getting symptomatic Long Covid. EVERY. TIME.

I know friends who are on their third or fourth round of Covid. If people keep getting infected at this rate, Long Covid will become the norm. 13/

Long Covid is not mild or innocuous. In many cases, it is likely irreversible heart damage, lung damage, brain damage. We do not know what the outlook for Long Covid patients looks like over years or decades, and we do not yet have ways to treat it. /14

The CDC knows this, but does not say anything.

There are no official advisories on Long Covid, no warning that repeated infection can cause lasting damage.

As a result, most people have no idea. /15

https://twitter.com/PPEtoheros/status/1514689280182005765?s=20&t=8S7ePmoMybUPWEKWTtUp4g

In a world where passengers cheer as they take off their masks while trapped in a metal box with hundreds of other humans as new variants emerge by the day and infections rage, urging caution often feels like Berenger in Rhinoceros - alone and unheard, shouting into the void. 16/

But, truth is truth. Long Covid is common + highly debilitating. It is likely to have significant long-term health consequences. We don't have medicines or treatments to help people yet.

It is very reasonable to want to avoid Covid even if you are vaxed, young, and healthy. 17/

Mass delusion is an intoxicating thing. It's all too easy to look around and feel like maybe Covid is no big deal anymore, because here are all these maskless people who look happy and fine. But what's actually happening isn't visible in the bars and restaurants and planes. 18/

It's slower and more insidious, and we won't know the full consequences of the choices we're making right now for a long time. 19/

I've come to accept that it's not possible to completely eliminate the risk of getting Covid, and that most likely, my family and I will get it at some point.

The goal is to delay infection for as long as possible. The fewer times we catch Covid, the better. 20/

People who are trying not to get Covid aren't "anxious" or "not moving on." We're looking at the facts and we're reasonably concerned.

Eliminating an opportunity for a 5% chance of developing serious heart, lung, or brain problems is worth a lot. 21/

Like Berenger in Rhinoceros, it feels very lonely to be caring about any of this right now. The world has moved on.

But it's the world that's wrong, not those of us who see this for what it is. end/

Um, hi everyone. I'm feeling a little less alone now.

Here's my favorite scene from the 1974 film adaptation of Rhinoceros, starring Gene Wilder and Zero Mostel. The film as a whole is pretty mediocre, but this final monologue scene is 🔥.

One last fun little known #theatrehistory fact on Ionesco and #Yiddish: Ionesco credited seeing a Bucharest performance by the avant-garde Yiddish theater company The Vilna Troupe with inspiring him to become a playwright.