Thread by @BrentToderian

THREAD: I’m going to try this thread to clearly state my perspective on electric vehicles, car dependency and better cities, to those who frequently ask me, including media, elected leaders and many others. Here goes. Please share if you think it helps. 🧵#EVS

To be clear, despite the complexities, problems & grey areas that make electric vehicles much more complicated than the “silver bullets” many claim them to be, I DO support the replacement of ICE vehicles with EVs. It will take longer and be more complicated than boosters think.

But it’s important to understand what #EVs WON’T do, that we STILL badly need solutions for.

We know FOR SURE that EV cars, trucks & SUVs still badly pollute from manufacturing, brakes & tires, creating serious health issues, even IF the energy source is renewable (many aren’t).

We know FOR SURE that there are huge pollution, climate, health, equity & cost consequences connected to continued car dependency from all the highway, road-widening & parking CONSTRUCTION that supports more vehicles whether they are EV or not, & siphons $ from better solutions.

We already know FOR SURE that even if every motor vehicle CURRENTLY out there was replaced with an #EV, it wouldn’t get us far enough in addressing the transport part of the #ClimateCrisis. It doesn’t do enough to reduce emissions, even before we consider all the OTHER issues.

We already know FOR SURE that EVs don’t solve the HUGE space, parking & congestion problems in cities caused by TOO MANY VEHICLES no matter what their power source (and remember, vehicles are getting BIGGER), OR the shocking number of deaths & injuries each year from car crashes.

But the part that’s maybe the MOST concerning is our tendency (see #JevonsParadox) to buy more/bigger vehicles & drive them further if we think they’ve gotten better (“greener”). We KNOW the resulting more/bigger cars & kms driven has been outpacing the benefits of “better cars.”

All this is to say that it’s CRITICAL, as we strive to achieve “better cars,” that we make EVERY move necessary at the same time (or even BEFORE/proactively), to ensure that we are achieving FEWER cars, LESS driving, more inviting transpo alternatives & better communities/cities!

The BIG problem is because of car manufacturing influence, most media & political energy is in EVs, with not NEARLY enough going into fewer cars/less driving. But the priority HAS to be the latter, since it’s the part of the solution that will actually do much more public good.

“Electrification has been touted as a silver bullet: an easy solution that alleviates the GHG burden from car owners worldwide. This isn’t the case. Extensive vehicle electrification only lowers emissions by a portion of what’s needed.” Via @WRIRossCities itdp.org/2021/12/09/why…

“While it’s critical to go electric, at the same time, we must make every move necessary to ensure that we achieve fewer cars, less driving, more inviting alternatives, and better cities.” My comments, among others, in @CarltonReid’s new @Forbes EV article forbes.com/sites/carltonr…

Over the last decade, global SUV ownership has doubled. If it keeps growing at its current rate, increased SUV ownership will offset the entire emissions reduction from electric vehicles. Plus they’re much more likely than smaller cars to kill pedestrians.
fastcompany.com/90420280/shoul…

Here’s the blunt reality — reasonably-sized electric vehicles need to be the future of cars, but they can’t be the future of urban mobility.

Fewer cars.
Less driving.
More inviting mobility options.
Better communities and cities.

These are the 4 pillars of the REAL solution.

"The report makes clear that simply replacing gasoline with batteries won’t be enough: cities must also dramatically curtail the use of automobiles and avoid 'locking in' future emissions by building more car-dependent infrastructure." Via @StreetsblogUSA
mass.streetsblog.org/2022/04/22/int…

Still think “better vehicles” (& car companies) will ever solve our problems? #ClimateCrisis #CarDependency

The future of transportation isn’t the #Hyperloop or self-driving cars. It’s the bus, the bike, & the elevator. Via @slate

AND it’s better land-use & infrastructure decisions, reprioritizing space & budgets, accessible streets, & smart pricing mechanisms.
slate.com/technology/201…

Never forget, the electric car is here to save the car industry, not the planet.

“In a 2050 scenario, there’s time for everything to happen that needs to happen. But in 2030 it just isn’t going to happen. Just look at the mess we’re in from a lithium supply standpoint with less than 10% EV penetration.”

There’s not enuf battery metal.
bnnbloomberg.ca/mr-lithium-war…

So I’ll repeat — we DO need to replace the current # of ICE vehicles with a LOT FEWER EVs. It’ll take a LOT of work on infrastructure, including the transformation of millions of private parking spaces. Unlike driverless cars, it IS part of the solution & needs to happen quickly.

As I put it recently in my blunt advice to Irish cities, “Your goal SHOULDN’T be to replace a million fossil fuel vehicles with a million electric vehicles. It should be to replace a million fossil fuel vehicles with 250K electric vehicles. The answer HAS to be FEWER cars."

The transportation portion of climate-changing emissions has grown by 54% since 1990, in part because people have been driving more and buying big pick-up trucks and SUVs. SHIFTING TO EVs IS NOT ENOUGH. Car dependency is the deeper problem. Via @ParisMarx
cbc.ca/news/opinion/o…

Climate policy that relies on a shift to electric cars risks entrenching existing inequities. Via @ConversationUK. Among MANY reasons to conclude that “better cars” won’t get us where we need to be. Fewer cars, less driving, more choices and better cities. theconversation.com/climate-policy…

THIS IS INTERESTING: 12 Ways to Reduce Cars In Cities that have ALREADY WORKED, ranked by effectiveness, identified from nearly 800 research papers. Via @KA_Nicholas in @ConversationEDU. What do u think, Tweeps? Depends A LOT on the specific case studies… theconversation.com/12-best-ways-t…

“Popularising electric vehicles comes with the risk of entrenching car dependency. Driverless cars may encourage more miles on the road, which could make traffic and sprawl worse.”

Fewer cars, less driving, more choices, better cities. Via @sky #FCLDMCBC smh.com.au/business/marke…

Still think making all our current cars EVs is the answer? Only 5% of cars in California are currently EVs.

Fewer cars. Less driving. More choices. Better cities. #FCLDMCBC

“The technologies unleashed by Silicon Valley are not neutral. They contain within them the world views of the people who develop them… they champion ideas that would ensure that automobiles continue to dominate our transportation system…“ — @ParisMarx in “Road to Nowhere.”

Clearly I’m not saying EVs aren’t part of the broader solution, but the main goal HAS to be less driving & fewer cars. Picture tobacco companies selling “better cigarettes” as the solution (which can actually lead to MORE smoking), when we know the solution is to limit smoking.

.@Vladdo: “I’ve read you’re not very happy with electric cars b/c they don’t help urban mobility, is that right?”

Me: “That’s an overstatement. What concerns me is when EVs are held up as the whole solution. At most they’re part of the solution, & not the most important part.”

This is REALLY important for decision-makers & media to understand — if EVs are getting bigger & bigger (SUVs, trucks & even Hummers), we’re FAILING in addressing the #ClimateCrisis, vehicle collision deaths, public costs, etc. Via @ParisMarx @techreview technologyreview.com/2022/10/26/106…

Let’s try another way— Yes, electric vehicles are a part of the better mobility/#ClimateCrisis solution. But there’s a hierarchy of importance/effectiveness:

1. Many more mobility choices & better cities with fewer cars & much less driving
2. *long pause…*
3. THEN “better cars”

“The Hummer EV tips the scales at just over 9k lbs—that’s some 4k more than the H3 & equivalent to around 3 Toyota Corollas…But at least the Hummer EV is electric, so it will help fight #climatechange, right? Well, don’t count on it.” Via @FastCompany fastcompany.com/90790197/yes-t…

Never forget, an electric version of an awful vehicle is still an awful vehicle.

https://twitter.com/DavidZipper/status/1593581073467936768

IMPORTANT! “How many more electric cars could we build...if we just reallocated all the stuff going into that 3,000lb Hummer EV battery toward more reasonably sized cars, let alone e-cargo bikes?" —@DavidZipper.

It isn’t just Hummer EV’s that are TOO BIG! businessinsider.com/gmc-hummer-ev-…

NEW: Study finds that electrifying SUVs could actually INCREASE emissions by using up scarce battery material that could otherwise be used to electrify a lot MORE smaller cars (not to mention e-bikes etc). Via @ScienceDirect @DavidZipper

SUVs are too big.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

“Electric cars may produce less local pollution than petrol ones but still need enormous quantities of energy & emissions to make/run…car-based urbanism, electric or not, is inherently unsustainable, creating low-density, inefficient & dangerous cities.”
dezeen.com/2023/01/11/con…

REALLY IMPORTANT: “But Norway says it isn’t hoping to simply replace combustion engines with electric counterparts 1:1 but motivate people to get out of their private vehicles & walk, cycle, & take public transport” @ElectrekCo

Does YOUR country get this?
electrek.co/2022/05/17/nor…

A 1-for-1 swap — an EV to take the place of every gas guzzler — is a disaster of its own making: a resource-intensive, slow crawl toward a future of sustained high traffic deaths, fractured neighborhoods, & prioritized roads over virtually everything else.
curbed.com/2023/01/electr…

I respect and appreciate President Biden, but please, PLEASE stop doing photo ops with electric Hummers. It badly weakens any credibility the Biden Government has on sustainable, safe, equitable urban transportation, which is a shame since I know that @SecretaryPete gets it.

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1620138541937205250

“Simply converting the existing U.S. car fleet to battery-powered #ElectricVehicles, for example, would require 3x more #lithium by 2050 than the world currently produces, according to new research…” @Sciam

Fewer (and smaller) vehicles, & less driving.

scientificamerican.com/article/making…

“Electric cars are still cars. The focus on electric cars stands in the way of truly transformative change: better public transit and better laid-out cities that encourage active modes of getting around, such as cycling.”

Fewer cars, less driving, etc.

theglobeandmail.com/business/comme…

The problem of too many cars isn’t just about what comes out of the tailpipe. And altho EVs are better coming out of the tailpipe, their increased weight, & the potential increase in size & distance driven (due to #JevonsParadox) makes even the tailpipe comparison “complicated.”

“EVs, & hybrid cars to a lesser extent, enjoy a global image that is entirely unjustified. Their presence will still disfigure cities, pushing politicians and developers to build new parking lots, roads & highways to gratify the endless swarms of drivers.”
theglobeandmail.com/business/comme…

“[SUV owners] have been led to think that they need a wide, tall, capacious, ­all-terrain-­capable vehicle, when in fact they do most of their driving in crowded cities and need no such thing at all.”

It’s not just “your choice.” There are PUBLIC costs. telegraph.co.uk/cars/features/…

“EVs are here to save the car industry, not the planet, that is crystal clear. Electric cars use batteries instead of gasoline, but they are still a horrendously inefficient way to move people around, especially in crowded cities." — @notjustbikes
cbc.ca/news/business/…

@notjustbikes STUDY: “EVs can become a moral licensing tool to maintain existing behaviour and thus car use levels.”

Or increase car use.

“To reduce car use, it is essential to improve alternative options & simultaneously restrict car traffic.” #Norway HT @DavidZipper
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…