In exclusive interview with BBC, German finance minister Christian Lindner tells me
* tho Russian energy will be embargoed “as fast as possible”
* immediate embargo physically impossible and
* would “probably” see shutdowns of manufacturers and carmakers…
“Russia is responsible for all the geopolitical and economic risks” arising from the war - “inflation, food crisis and possible risk of a serious debt crisis in developing countries”
When I ask fin min Christian Lindner why Germany acquiesced in Putin’s strategy to hook Europe on its gas, even swapping its storage infrastructure for Siberian supplies, he told me:
“Yes, it was a strategic miscalculation from German governments, over the last two decades…” >
Lindner stressed Germany was now rapidly building LNG terminals, and the dependence was only “at the moment”…”but we will overcome this situation. And we will work out how we could have gotten in this, this difficult situation. And it should not be happening again”
On rouble fully recovered from central bank sanctions, Lindner told me:
“we have hit Putin’s warchest, by sanctions against the Russian Central Bank, I think the long term effects on the Russian economy are devastating. And so we have to be patient on the economical side.”
FULL Story is here… fascinating to hear a senior German minister explain to an international audience about its energy dependence on Russia in such depth
NEW
IMFC committee not been able to agree a communique amid disagreements over wording of support for Ukraine… its been blocked, which I think has no precedent. G20 communique also blocked
Understand Russian delegation just been speaking here in DC, to protest from many others
Yellen - we are tightening the vice on Russia by targeting networks used too evade sanctions…
Yellen: Im deeply concerned about food security for developing countries - we are doing everything we can… need to address 275m affecting acute food insecurity, and 800m facing chronic food security
NEW
Just done interview with Chancellor Rishi Sunak at IMF meeting in DC…
* on FPN: “I'm extremely and sincerely sorry for the hurt and the anger that this has caused so many people”.
* “always acted, I believe in good faith with regard to what I've said in Parliament”
On having Green card while Cx: “I had a green card as a legacy of my time living & working in America & nothing more than that.”
On whether family benefited from nondom: [my wife] has decided to pay both UK & foreign taxes on her foreign investments & I fully support her decision
NEW On Ukraine after meeting fin minister: Sunak - we've announced significant new sanctions against Putin, notably bans and high tariffs on Russian imports…
IMF latest world econ outlook downgrades global growth forecasts after Russia-Ukraine invasion calling it “severe setback” to post pandemic lockdown recovery with almost all countries cut…global econ will grow by 3.6% this year and next, inflation staying higher for longer
NEW:
UK economy forecast to be slowest growing in the G7 next year (2023) at 1.2%, by the IMF, and no longer top performer this year, after significant downgrades to growth, though was last year in initial post pandemic bounceback.
Inflation forecast to be highest in G7.
IMF forecast for 2023 actually has UK as second worst performing economy in the G20 too, only behind sanctioned Russia… and at 1.2% growth, only beating a handful of all the countries forecasted, ie not in top 100…
IMF attributes it to “weaker than expected British consumer”
This bit - PM having walked through Maidan explains to Zelenskyy something was a “good idea for the UK in 1973 - the right thing at the right time” … which logically suggests he no longer thinks it is, which rather points towards EU membership, which Ukraine actively seeks…
not a particularly material detail, in context of clear effectiveness of early UK arms/training for Ukraine’s army, and Zelenskyy’s gratitude for it to PM and UK, but it is an intriguing one considering peace negotiations with Russia include Ukraine advancing with EU membership..
worth remembering that a decade ago the then German government allowed Gazprom to swap deep lying gas reserves in Siberia for actual gas storage capacity in Germany - the same gas storage that would be required in any energy standoff with Russia
I wrote about it my book @thedefaultline after visiting Gazprom’s Siberian gas fields… swapping deep lying Achimov gas fields for the largest gas storage facility in Western Europe.
Actually deal collapsed after I wrote it.
And was revived and completed in 2015. After Crimea.
NEW Economy minster Habeck just said it - German government, its energy regulator to takeover Gazprom Germania “temporarily” - ie that biggest storage field in Western Europe BASF swapped for stakes in Siberia’s gas fields…
PM was big on cheaper Tim Tams as a totemic benefit of free trade deal… The elimination of 8% tariff under the UK-Aus FTA …will still leave the Australian version of the penguin priced rather steeply… well over £4 currently vs £2 in Oz. Basically sold here as a luxury biscuit
near doubling in price would obviously include shipping from other side of world. Without tariffs, bigger incentive to ship more and perhaps cut prices more. But if it was really commercially viable, presumably they would just start producing them here, but no tariff benefit then
I’m quite intrigued by the economics of the tim tam as a tradable good… hadn’t clocked how pricey they were here.
Instinctively would appear to make no sense to ship them en masse from Oz to the UK. Currently serve a niche for expats in UK and are priced accordingly…