Latest arms package for Ukraine — 72 155mm howitzers, 144k rounds, more UAV’s — much more like the scale we need to be operating on. One always wishes it had happened weeks ago, but this is an important step forward. Bravo Biden administration & Pentagon. 1/5
Important phenomenon here: we see the Ukrainians can use heavy weapons well and have a real chance, so we provide more; other countries e.g. Netherlands even Spain step forward; reluctant countries e.g. Germany begin to catch up. Healthy competitive dynamic. 2/5
And to deliver it the enormous logistical capacities of the US military. When we want things to move quickly, we can do it. Moreover, Ukraine now has secure rear areas in Eastern Europe for training, recovery, maintenance, medical care, etc. 3/5
As a shield we have clear NATO conventional overmatch against a Russian military that is incompetent, corrupt, badly led, bled badly & dependent on an industrial base getting squeezed very hard by sanctions. An air war would be extremely one-sided in NATO’s favor. 4/5
Bottom line: if we continue on this path, accelerating deliveries, w/ broader European production and contribution, in a few weeks Russia will be losing unambiguously. Talk of stalemate likely misplaced. So: time to double down and aim for Ukrainian victory. @PentagonPresSec 5/5
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If the Russian offensive has not begun, it is about to. What’s needed now isn’t conceptually complicated: it is arming the Ukrainians to the max and as fast as possible with long range fires (howitzers and rocket systems), air defense systems (radars, missiles, etc.), 1/6
Armored vehicles to move troops around, aircraft & helos. There have to be creative options open - by sea as well as by air & land. And equally important, we (led by the US) need to make it clear that (1) we will do this without stinting; (2) we will go as long as it takes; 2/6
(3) we will do it fast and at an order of magnitude greater effort than heretofore. $10s of billions not a 1 $billion here & there, not 18 howitzers but 180, not 40k shells but 400k. All of that will take longer but the need will be there in the months ahead. 3/6
Two possible narratives here. Narrative #1. After a surprising setback the Russian General Staff, drawing on the traditions of Suvorov, Zhukov, etc. regroups, switches its line of effort, and focuses on closing the Slovianka pocket, trapping most of the UA regular army. 1/7
Cue words like “Kesselschlacht,” “deep maneuver,” “fire sack” etc. etc. They seize Ukraine’s Black Sea coast (up to Odessa) and Russia imposes a compromise, frozen armistice, in which Moscow walks away with some gains, though not overthrow of Ukrainian government. Success! 2/7
Deep Russian military competence has reasserted itself. But then there is Narrative #2. The Big Boss is hopping mad that he was lied to about what was doable, but neither he nor the generals really know the situation on the ground particularly well. He tells them to deliver… 3/7
Talk of whether sanctions are ‘proportional’ or can deter further Russian criminal behavior is pointless. The purpose of sanctions now is to throttle the Russian economy, which, together with battlefield defeat and high losses are the only thing that can stop Putin. 1/4
Equally pointless is discussion about giving ‘offensive’ vs. ‘defensive’ weapons to Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting a defensive war, so whatever weapons it uses are therefore defensive. Again, the purpose is to ensure and accelerate Russian defeat. 2/4
As often happens, commentators of various kinds are outsmarting themselves with spurious distinctions. This is a war, and war is a test of endurance. The Ukrainians have the will, the skill, & a just cause. It’s up to us to arm them and cripple their - our - enemy’s economy. 3/4
Stipulating that we have no idea how this will turn out, it is worth tallying some of the surprises thus far.
Apparent lack of punch in Russian initial attack, to include on Ukrainian air forces; ineffective airborne assaults and spetsnaz raids; ferocity of Ukrainian resistance in depth. 1/
Unanimity of western response, to include arms supplies (e.g. Sweden of all places), and Germans not only participating in sanctions, but deciding to lay out double their annual defense budget. This on top of demonstrations, etc. 2/