Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 22, 2022 15 tweets 10 min read Read on X
SMERCH MLRS system & some US vs Russian Army social history🧵

People have pointed to the cranes for reloading the BM-27 (220mm) & BM-30 (300mm) Smerch as evidence of mechanized logistics in the Russian Army.

It takes more than a crane to have a mechanized logistics system.
1/
When you look at a US Army MLRS or HIMARS launcher.

You see containerized pod six-packs with cranes built into the launcher and in the trucks that pick up & deliver them.

You see a persistent use of capital to replace labor for increased productivity per unit time.

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And please carefully note, this emphasis in the US Army predates Frederick Taylor's four principles of Scientific Management.

The M1819 Hall rifle & carbines built with interchangeable, mass produced, parts vastly reduced the number of trained artisans needed to build &
3/
...maintain its firearms.

The reason for the crane on the Uragan BM-27 & Smerch BM-30 reload trucks is their rockets were individually too darned big for a group of minimally trained & hungover conscripts move without damaging both the rocket & themselves.
4/
An apples to apples comparison of the US MLRS or HIMARS to the Smerch shows advantages for the US launchers.

1. Less manpower per launcher w/o a specialized reload vehicle
2. Faster reload time per launcher
3. More rockets can be fired per US Army MLRS or HIMARS per day.
5/
4. And all these labor saving devices built into MLRS & HIMARS launchers are easily trained at low risk.

The Twelve 300mm Smerch rockets need to be individually fused & armed. As does the 40 rockets of a 122mm rocket launcher.
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The US MLRS/HIMARS pod is factory loaded & sealed with all the fusing & arming being automated & remotely set via cab fire control computer.

Any US Army truck with a crane can lay out the pods for launchers to reload. No special rocket reload trucks are required.
7/
The US Army has always been short of people. The American Frontier & Congressional dislike of standing a standing army saw to that from the Revolution to WW2.
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WW2 conscription wasn't the answer to US Army manpower dreams. The USAAF & US Navy grabbed many of the best men and the needs of world wide logistics meant the US Army hit the wall of expansion in late 1942.

Mechanized logistics was the only way to move the mountains of
9/
supplies needed world wide.

And not just for itself, but for all the United Nations including Russia.
10/
In contrast, the Russian Army in all its incarnations until the late 1990's always acted as if "There's more conscripts where that came from, comrade."

While the nostalgia for the Red Army the Putin Regime had blinded it to the demographic realities
11/
...that the 21st Century Russian Army lacked the White Russian & Ukrainian manpower to replicate the Red Army.

The mechanized logistics pioneered in the West was simply applied to logistical issues beyond the capabilities of a mass of ill-trained conscripts.
12/
The fact that it took the Ukraine War for this gap in Russian logistical capability to be really NOTICED, let alone analyzed.

There has never been a real attempt at a comparative social history between the Russian and other Armies logistics.



13/
If "Armatures Study Tactics & Professionals Study Logistics," where does that leave Western professional military education?

14/
I mean, Ralph Peters noticed all the non-mechanized manual labor in the Red Army going back for centuries & wrote it in his book Red Army in 1989.

Yet, in 2022 senior DoD intelligence models projected Russia could overrun Ukraine in 96 hours?

15/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jan 19
Untrue⬇️

If the target of a US "rapid strike" was either the Kharg Island oil export facility or Iran's banking/financial system with a combination of explosives and non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse munitions, the Mullahs will fall.

COA🧵 Image
This post is typical of analytical thinking regarding strikes on Iran.

Note the complete lack of either Kharg island or the Iranian financial system on the list.

Regime Security Force as a distinct target set that needs a payroll is missing.

2/
There are two real courses of action (COA) for an American air campaign if Regime Change is the goal.

The Schwerpunkt - political center of gravity - of the Mullah regime is its ability to pay for the use Regime Security Forces & foreign hired mercenaries.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 18
This is one of the 3 major strategic mistakes of the Zelenskyy Government.⬇️

Putin has shown better, more consistent, and more effective leadership in the strategic bombing of Ukrainian electrical infrastructure than Zelinskyy has in striking Russia's railways.

1/
Russia remains uniquely vulnerable to a focused drone strike campaign on it's electrical railway traction step down transformers.

Zelenskyy's leadership not only ignored hitting that unique Russian vulnerability since Feb. 2022.

See the figure below⬇️

2/ Image
To give you an idea of the abject political-military failure of the Zelenskyy government in this regard one has to look at the industrial supply chain for those traction substations.

The Soviet Union had two major transformer factories: Tolyatti and Zaporozhye.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Jan 16
This is a useful survey as far as it goes...but it is missing the key factor in the Iranian Revolution.

That is, _Food_Insecurity_.

Food insecurity is as much a cause of the Iranian Revolution as Regime hatred.

Iranian Revolution Food Insecurity🧵
1/
The predominant effect of a 1.4 million rial to the dollar hyperinflation combined with Regime Security Force public lockdown is the Iranian lower class has been set up to starve.

The lower class cannot go to work to get money to buy food.


2/
Nor can Iran's lower class budget the money it has to plan what food it can buy week to week because of inflation.

Iran's hyperinflation has gone on long enough that the Iranian lower class has traded everything it can barter, already, for food.



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Read 5 tweets
Jan 14
We really need to talk about the huge opportunity that Mullah financial corruption has given the Trump Administration to crash Iran's financial system with E-bombs, AKA non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse.

Wiping the financial records of failing Mullah banks in a revolution...

1/ Image
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...makes them very difficult to restore.

And surfacing those back up records makes them vulnerable to follow up E-bomb strikes.

Plus, how are the IRGC & Basij going to get paid?

2/
No one in their right mind thinks the IRGC & Basij will work for free, fighting a revolution without pay.

Mullah controlled bank electronics are needed to meet payroll.

The old USAF ALCM cruise missile was outfitted with the "CHAMP" E-Bomb for zorching enemy electronics.

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Read 10 tweets
Jan 12
If you haven't read the substack article linked below, do so immediately and consider this:

When you stack secure & uninterrupted digital text communications to Mullah Regime corruption and currency hyperinflation...

...the Mullah Regime is doomed. It's a matter of when, not if.

1/
What jumped out for me about @shanaka86 substack article was the implications of secure digital text communications for the Maoist model of Revolutionary warfare.

See the @grok summary of Mao's 4-level revolutionary model below. ⬇️

2/ Image
Maoist Level 1 & 2 warfare has never had the secure digital text communications Starlink provides.

This means a whole heck of a lot and shoots decades of counter-insurgency doctrine about controlling/blocking guerilla communications in the head.

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Read 14 tweets
Jan 10
Okay folks, we have to say at this point what is driving the uprising in Iran isn't the strength of the protests.

It is the WEAKNESS OF THE IRANIAN STATE. Basij commander Shoushtari's killing is the neon sign of Mullah-ocracy weakness. It had to be an inside job, reasons.

This means we need to talk about Russia's LAST PLANE OUT OF TEHRAN. 🧵
1/Image
Just as US military evacuations of Saigon and Kabul required securing the embassy & airport for evacuation.

Perhaps as soon as 48 hours from now, the Russian VDV will have to secure the Tehran airport to evacuate not only Iranian Mullah gold, but lots of Russian intel & technical experts.
2/Image
The Fall of Kabul made clear you not only need marines for ground security.

You also needed a USAF operation/maintenance squadron (-) for loading, refueling and operating air traffic control as you can't count on the locals to run the airport as the security situation collapses.
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Read 9 tweets

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