Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 22, 2022 15 tweets 10 min read Read on X
SMERCH MLRS system & some US vs Russian Army social history🧵

People have pointed to the cranes for reloading the BM-27 (220mm) & BM-30 (300mm) Smerch as evidence of mechanized logistics in the Russian Army.

It takes more than a crane to have a mechanized logistics system.
1/
When you look at a US Army MLRS or HIMARS launcher.

You see containerized pod six-packs with cranes built into the launcher and in the trucks that pick up & deliver them.

You see a persistent use of capital to replace labor for increased productivity per unit time.

2/
And please carefully note, this emphasis in the US Army predates Frederick Taylor's four principles of Scientific Management.

The M1819 Hall rifle & carbines built with interchangeable, mass produced, parts vastly reduced the number of trained artisans needed to build &
3/
...maintain its firearms.

The reason for the crane on the Uragan BM-27 & Smerch BM-30 reload trucks is their rockets were individually too darned big for a group of minimally trained & hungover conscripts move without damaging both the rocket & themselves.
4/
An apples to apples comparison of the US MLRS or HIMARS to the Smerch shows advantages for the US launchers.

1. Less manpower per launcher w/o a specialized reload vehicle
2. Faster reload time per launcher
3. More rockets can be fired per US Army MLRS or HIMARS per day.
5/
4. And all these labor saving devices built into MLRS & HIMARS launchers are easily trained at low risk.

The Twelve 300mm Smerch rockets need to be individually fused & armed. As does the 40 rockets of a 122mm rocket launcher.
6/
The US MLRS/HIMARS pod is factory loaded & sealed with all the fusing & arming being automated & remotely set via cab fire control computer.

Any US Army truck with a crane can lay out the pods for launchers to reload. No special rocket reload trucks are required.
7/
The US Army has always been short of people. The American Frontier & Congressional dislike of standing a standing army saw to that from the Revolution to WW2.
8/
WW2 conscription wasn't the answer to US Army manpower dreams. The USAAF & US Navy grabbed many of the best men and the needs of world wide logistics meant the US Army hit the wall of expansion in late 1942.

Mechanized logistics was the only way to move the mountains of
9/
supplies needed world wide.

And not just for itself, but for all the United Nations including Russia.
10/
In contrast, the Russian Army in all its incarnations until the late 1990's always acted as if "There's more conscripts where that came from, comrade."

While the nostalgia for the Red Army the Putin Regime had blinded it to the demographic realities
11/
...that the 21st Century Russian Army lacked the White Russian & Ukrainian manpower to replicate the Red Army.

The mechanized logistics pioneered in the West was simply applied to logistical issues beyond the capabilities of a mass of ill-trained conscripts.
12/
The fact that it took the Ukraine War for this gap in Russian logistical capability to be really NOTICED, let alone analyzed.

There has never been a real attempt at a comparative social history between the Russian and other Armies logistics.



13/
If "Armatures Study Tactics & Professionals Study Logistics," where does that leave Western professional military education?

14/
I mean, Ralph Peters noticed all the non-mechanized manual labor in the Red Army going back for centuries & wrote it in his book Red Army in 1989.

Yet, in 2022 senior DoD intelligence models projected Russia could overrun Ukraine in 96 hours?

15/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

May 17
This is a "flaming datum" for the Lanchester Square Collapse of Russian national air defenses.

And it wasn't just 20 drones flying by.

Lanchester smiles at RuAF National Air Defenses🧵
1/
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And a high percentage of this Ukrainian propeller cruise missile stream hit their intended targets.

3/
Read 18 tweets
May 17
I'm going to pound on a point generally ignored in the OSINT community on X.

That is, how little OSINT analysis of satellite and drone videos can actually see in terms of fragmentation damage due to low video resolution.

Eternal BDA Failure 🧵
1/
Please carefully look at the disabling tungsten ball fragments from GMLRS strikes on this truck.

Go to the 2 minute to end of the video. Satellites simply cannot see this damage, nor most drone videos.

2/
The "intact & seemingly undamaged" planes at Belbek airfield in that MAXAR satellite imagery could and likely are looking like this Russian helicopter.

image h/T @Wilkmans
3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
May 14
What Ms. Tchakarova is referring to here Russian Reflexive Control information warfare techniques.

I've talked about it quite a bit during the Russo-Ukrainian War and how adherents of "Escalation Management" like @jacksullivan46 and Chancellor Scholz have been captured by it
1/
@PhillipsPOBrien had a nice substack column about the effectiveness of Russian Reflexive Control back in March of this year.

2/
This particular passage from Timothy L. Thomas 2004 paper on the subject shows how Russia's Reflexive control infowar mapped & fed to each specific US tribal & professional demographic the data to get the message Russian wants those groups to believe.
3/
Read 10 tweets
May 13
This explains the "Imperial Japanese Army at Saipan" behavior of wounded Russian soldiers killing themselves with grenades to prevent capture by Ukrainians.

Russian Mobiks are being ideologically conditioned to kill themselves, like IJA troopers were in WW2.

Russian Death Cult🧵
1/
There are multiple videos like this Russian ideological self-harm conditioned behavior surfacing.

2/
This ideological conditioning is being reinforced to Russian troops by their commanders.

3/

Read 5 tweets
May 6
There are still Western military officers -- including most flag ranks -- watching videos like the one below and denying FPV and other cheap DJI drones have fundamentally changed the way wars on the ground are fought.

Drone War🧵
1/7
A year ago Ukraine had 10,000 drone operators, one per 100 troops

It has trained far more since then.

In fact, the AFU has created a military drone branch co-equal to infantry and artillery branches.

2/7
In some forward areas there are now as many Ukrainian drone operators as infantry because FPV drones have all but replaced crew served infantry weapons.


3/7
Read 8 tweets
May 5
The people on X saying Ukraine couldn't use ATACMS in the counter-battery role against Russian tactical ballistic missiles were shills, toadies, and trolls.

No one who was at all reality-based would have said anything so stupid.

"WHEN THE GODS OF ARTILLERY MAKE A POINT"🧵
1/
2016 article at the link titled in english "WHEN THE GODS OF ARTILLERY MAKE A POINT" makes clear Ukraine had a very tight intelligence/surveillance/reconnaissance kill chain between its Spetsnaz and it's Tochka-U TBM & 300mm MLRS batteries.

2/
petrimazepa.com/goddot.html
These Spetsnaz teams spotted 120km Tochka-U & 90 km Smersh fire strikes to clear a "Fire corredor" maneuver lane for these OMG operations during the 2014-2015 ATO.

This was pre-ATO (2014) Ukrainian military doctrine used during the ATO.

3/

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Read 5 tweets

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