Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 22 15 tweets 10 min read
SMERCH MLRS system & some US vs Russian Army social history🧵

People have pointed to the cranes for reloading the BM-27 (220mm) & BM-30 (300mm) Smerch as evidence of mechanized logistics in the Russian Army.

It takes more than a crane to have a mechanized logistics system.
1/
When you look at a US Army MLRS or HIMARS launcher.

You see containerized pod six-packs with cranes built into the launcher and in the trucks that pick up & deliver them.

You see a persistent use of capital to replace labor for increased productivity per unit time.

2/
And please carefully note, this emphasis in the US Army predates Frederick Taylor's four principles of Scientific Management.

The M1819 Hall rifle & carbines built with interchangeable, mass produced, parts vastly reduced the number of trained artisans needed to build &
3/
...maintain its firearms.

The reason for the crane on the Uragan BM-27 & Smerch BM-30 reload trucks is their rockets were individually too darned big for a group of minimally trained & hungover conscripts move without damaging both the rocket & themselves.
4/
An apples to apples comparison of the US MLRS or HIMARS to the Smerch shows advantages for the US launchers.

1. Less manpower per launcher w/o a specialized reload vehicle
2. Faster reload time per launcher
3. More rockets can be fired per US Army MLRS or HIMARS per day.
5/
4. And all these labor saving devices built into MLRS & HIMARS launchers are easily trained at low risk.

The Twelve 300mm Smerch rockets need to be individually fused & armed. As does the 40 rockets of a 122mm rocket launcher.
6/
The US MLRS/HIMARS pod is factory loaded & sealed with all the fusing & arming being automated & remotely set via cab fire control computer.

Any US Army truck with a crane can lay out the pods for launchers to reload. No special rocket reload trucks are required.
7/
The US Army has always been short of people. The American Frontier & Congressional dislike of standing a standing army saw to that from the Revolution to WW2.
8/
WW2 conscription wasn't the answer to US Army manpower dreams. The USAAF & US Navy grabbed many of the best men and the needs of world wide logistics meant the US Army hit the wall of expansion in late 1942.

Mechanized logistics was the only way to move the mountains of
9/
supplies needed world wide.

And not just for itself, but for all the United Nations including Russia.
10/
In contrast, the Russian Army in all its incarnations until the late 1990's always acted as if "There's more conscripts where that came from, comrade."

While the nostalgia for the Red Army the Putin Regime had blinded it to the demographic realities
11/
...that the 21st Century Russian Army lacked the White Russian & Ukrainian manpower to replicate the Red Army.

The mechanized logistics pioneered in the West was simply applied to logistical issues beyond the capabilities of a mass of ill-trained conscripts.
12/
The fact that it took the Ukraine War for this gap in Russian logistical capability to be really NOTICED, let alone analyzed.

There has never been a real attempt at a comparative social history between the Russian and other Armies logistics.



13/
If "Armatures Study Tactics & Professionals Study Logistics," where does that leave Western professional military education?

14/
I mean, Ralph Peters noticed all the non-mechanized manual labor in the Red Army going back for centuries & wrote it in his book Red Army in 1989.

Yet, in 2022 senior DoD intelligence models projected Russia could overrun Ukraine in 96 hours?

15/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 23
This is going to be a long thread 🧵on artillery logistics in the Ukraine war. It will explain what we should be seeing, but are not.

To get there, I need to start with calling myself out with being wrong and why I think that was.

I was wrong on Russian artillery ammo👇👇
1/
It turned out the Russians refusal to use artillery on Ukrainian counter-attacks at Izyum had to do with a large set piece artillery barrage the Russians had planned to open their Donbas offensive across the entire front.


2/
The logic chain of that thread fell apart on that point.

It also helped I had been tipped off about coming a coming article saying there was a Russian shortage in 160mm & 240mm mortar ammo because of the heavy use of those calibers in Syrian cities.

The article's...
3/
Read 34 tweets
Apr 23
Excalibur with the Canadian 155mm guns is a big <Bleeping> deal.

It is to artillery projectiles what the Javelin is to anti-tank missiles.

It can drop within 2 meters of a target at 40 km in its current 'Excalibur Ib' variant fired from a 155mm/39 caliber gun.🧵
1/ Image
An Excalibur can be programed to land within 150 meters of friendly troops and has a multi-function fuze that can be programmed to explode in the air, once it hits a hard surface, or after it penetrates inside a target.

2/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M982_Exca…
And the Excalibur projectile is compatible with the following 155mm guns

British AS-90 SPG,
Swedish Archer Artillery System,
South African G6 howitzer,
United States M198,
M777 Lightweight & M109A6 Paladin SP 155 mm howitzers, &
the German Panzerhaubitze 2000.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Apr 22
Since most people are not old enough to remember. The meme shown below is normal for the US military procurement system.

Peacetime & wartime US procurement has this two faced Janus-like property. It will take years in peacetime & ordnance appears in weeks during a war.🧵
1/ Image
The Phoenix Ghost is a quad-copter mixed with a winged lifting body with five cameras in several spectra that is radio-silent and can systematically map an area for up to six hours.

2/
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/p…
The story of the Desert Storm era GBU-28 5,000-pound (2,268 kg) class laser-guided "bunker busting" bomb is similar.

To get Iraqi bunkers too deep for 2000lb bombs, the Watervliet Arsenal, Watervliet, New York converted an 8-inch artillery gun barrel from deactivated...
2/
Read 20 tweets
Apr 18
A great point here, where are the Russian tactical trucks that should be here?

'Scooby Doo vans' in lieu of Russian tactical trucks is showing up about 2 weeks earlier than I expected.

IOW, Ukraine has pithed out the core of Russian logistics projecting into Ukraine.
1/
Russian combat & operational attrition of its tactical trucks has to be huge such that we are seeing Russian civilian vehicles in lieu of tactical trucks Mariupol.

There are huge economic implications here for the Russian economy.

2/
Civilian trucks taken from Russia & killed in Ukraine will not be there for the Russian economy.

Most Russian civilian trucks going to Ukraine simply won't be coming back because necessary spare parts are not in the Russian supply system.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Apr 17
I have a very simple question, if this report is true.🧵

Where is the Russian Army artillery ammunition they are fighting their "Donbas Set Piece Battle" with?

If Ukraine is threatening to pocket Izyum. Those attacks should have been buried under Russian Grad rockets👇
1/
If the Russians don't have massive artillery ammunition reserves available to support their possession of Izyum.

Can we assume the Russians have those reserves anywhere in Ukraine, like this War on the rocks article does?

2/
warontherocks.com/2022/04/what-a…
This is what was stated there:

"However, Ukraine has no effective options to counter a prolonged Russian artillery offensive. This should trouble those who want to see Ukraine prevail as Russia can rely upon an extensive supply of artillery platforms and munitions that it...
3/
Read 9 tweets
Apr 17
This is where most knowledgeable of Russian Army folks are.🧵👇👇

I was on a Ukrainian diaspora email list watching Donbas fighting from 2014 to 2022, so what we are seeing I saw a few times.

The general armored unit skills/signals collapse & 75% crewing is my What The Hell?
I simply didn't expect the LNR, DNR, & Russian Merc low standards of combat effectiveness to be the entire Russian Army level including the Regime Security units.

It isn't hard to run a truck around a motor pool once a month to see that they don't get sun bleached to death.

2/
Yet the Russian Army let that happen to $15 million anti-aircraft missile complexes.

Normal Russian trucks never had a chance.

3/
Read 8 tweets

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