Thread by @Usherwood

Right, what I think is happening here is that someone has come up with a cunning plan around Art.18 NIP consent provisions, so let's have a look at these, shall we?

1/

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1517239982569803776

Coincidentally I wrote about these earlier in the month, so all the info is to hand

(Yes, I will be trying to count this as Impact in #REF27)

2/

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1513404982682427396?t=DX-vJtMYdutWsJlbh_LKSg&s=19

Per @pmdfoster's piece, plan looks like either withholding results of a NI Assembly vote, or avoiding one happening. This hangs on the need for at least a majority of MLAs to support continuing application of Arts.5-10 of the NIP

3/

However, if you read the rest of Art.18, you will see that UK is committed to allowing a vote to take place, and that this vote doesn't need an Executive to exist, so sitting MLAs

4/

Crucially Art.18(4) says it's only when UK tells EU that a vote has happened and no majority was reached that disapplication occurs

I.e. it has to be an active decision by MLAs, not a passive we-didn't-get-round-to-voting-in-time non-decision

5/

As such, if wording of planned legislation is that London can either stop or ignore MLA vote, then that's a breach of NIP and of international law

6/

It's at least as bad as the Internal Market Bill, and worse in that it sounds like it also impinges on the right of MLAs to exercise their powers, so it also raises the question of GFA consent provisions too

7/

Even if the planned bill only aims to give London the option to ignore a consent vote, rather than requiring them to, that would still be just as much of a problem, given the commitment of Art.18(1) to allow NI a decisive voice [which UK itself pushed to include]

8/

Tl;dr it's almost as if someone wrote Art.18 to stop this kind of thing

/end

As for what the Indian govt might think about all this, as it considers an FTA with the UK, who knows?

And if you'd like more on what options are legally available to the UK govt on the NIP, then you'll want this