Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW34 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I cover Chelsea and double GW34 in depth:

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In this latest video, I share my own team and transfers for double GW34: 👇🏻

fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/bakars-fpl-dou…

Q: Who are the best Chelsea attackers to own?

I like the idea of owning at least one Chelsea attacker considering that they have a favorable fixture schedule, including double GWs in GW34 and 36. The fixtures this week are great as well - Chelsea come up against a West Ham...

... side which is yet to have kept a clean sheet away from home this calendar year and an out of sorts Man United who have been all over the place to put it lightly.

Mount has been in great form recently and has been making late runs into the box as a result of the...

... 3-4-1-2 formation which allows him to play more centrally. Statistically, he's top among all Chelsea players for xGi this season and has the additional benefit of being the most nailed of the Chelsea attackers in terms of security of starts - he has missed just one of the...

... previous 16 games he has been available for. If you are planning to own a Chelsea asset for the long term, he’s the one.

Havertz is right up there when it comes to big chance involvements or xG among Chelsea players over the past six matches and it's not even close...

... He's probably the most explosive of the Chelsea options and has already been rested so should be safe for more starts in the weeks to come (especially considering Lukaku's poor form). He's also rated by the bookmakers as the most likely Chelsea player to score this week.

Owning either Mount or Havertz allows for an easy move later to Foden too should Man City in GW36. I expect Chelsea to rotate in 36 as their FA Cup final is just two days after their second double GW fixture – so technically it’s a single GW in my eyes.

Werner comes into the...

... double in a rich vein of form having registered seven returns in his previous four starts. Tuchel in a recent interview himself acknowledged that Werner "is a huge part" of the team and lauded him for his recent performances. We've barely seen Werner be as consistent as he...

... has been in recent weeks as his end product has always been questionable. He has started lots of games in short succession but hopefully his form should mean that he plays most games in the times to come.

I really like the Man United fixture for Werner...

... in particular - Man United tend to give up lots of spaces in behind and if they play anywhere close to how they have been playing in recent weeks, Werner is exactly the kind of player who can exploit that as a result of his pace. He is getting into central positions in...

... Chelsea's recent 3-4-1-2 which has increased his goal threat significantly.

Statistically, Werner has the best non-penalty xGi per 90 among Chelsea players this season. For those FPL managers with Lacazette, Werner is an easy move considering that he'll be a differential.

Q: James, Alonso or both?

In my opinion, James is the standout Chelsea defender to own as we head into the double GW. I personally don't think the experiment of using him as the right sided centre back will last too long - James is simply Chelsea's best outlet to attack and...

... without him they struggle to create as much. It was no surprise to see Tuchel revert to using James as the right wing back in the second half against Arsenal and I expect that to be the case again in the double Gameweek. Even in the worst case scenario that James is used...

... continually as the right sided centre back, that is better for his minutes as Tuchel admitted that the role does not require the same intensity so if anything it makes James the most secure of the Chelsea assets as we head into the double Gameweek as he should play one way...

... or the other.

There is no doubt about James’ potential – the fact that he is only behind Alexander-Arnold among defenders when it comes to xGi per 90 this season should tell you about his explosiveness. He has already registered three FPL scores of 18 points or more this...

... season, and has every chance of adding to that tally with the favourable fixtures Chelsea have coming up. I prefer him to Alonso because of his security.

Alonso is a very intriguing differential at the moment. We had written him off as an option this season given that he...

... wasn't playing much over the past couple of months due to a combination of him being out of form, Chelsea switching to four at the back and then suffering from Covid. However, prior to the Arsenal game, he played consistently well in each of the previous three games he had...

... started and with no natural replacement, looks to have played himself into the first team. As things turned out, Chelsea conceded four against Arsenal which makes Alonso a high risk asset to own given that Chelsea may decide to revert to four at the back in the coming...

... weeks. Rudiger is a big doubt for the double Gameweek as well which makes Chelsea's defence worse - so I highly doubt Alonso will attract too much attention.

However, with greater risk comes great reward as Alonso's ownership will be low. If you are chasing a big lead in...

... your mini league or are looking to gain big ground in overall rank, Alonso is exactly the kind of explosive differential with upside you want. Chelsea have been given a very high 71% chance of keeping at least one clean sheet across the two fixtures by the bookies as well...

... Even if they don't, Alonso has the added advantage of getting an attacking return to register some returns one way or the other.

I think the Chelsea defensive double up has big upside if it comes off – it is definitely risky though.

Q: Who is the best captaincy option this week?

I’d go for a Chelsea attacker given that it’s a double GW where Chelsea are playing against two of the poor defences in the league. With limited time left in the season, it’s time to have fun!

Q: What is the best WC draft this week?

Schmeichel Foster
James Trent Robertson Cancelo Davies
Mount Havertz Salah Son Saka
Pukki Nketiah 4.5 forward

*If no FH in 37, then Saka could be Coutinho by downgrading Robertson to Laporte

*If BB in 36, 4.5 forward could be Dennis by downgrading Robertson to Laporte

*A Chelsea midfielder and Davies to Alonso/Laporte is also completely fine

Q: What to do with Man City assets?

Man City have a packed schedule in the weeks to come. Cancelo is a priority transfer for those who still don’t have him – with Cancelo suspended in the UCL semi and Walker injured, he’s at minimal risk of rotation. He’s top for shots among...

... defenders in the league so has that explosive potential.

I like the idea of doubling up on the Man City defence with Laporte because Cancelo is owned by the significant majority of “serious” FPL managers anyway, so this is where you can actually gain from Man City’s...

... defence doing well when it comes to effective ownership. They are ranked top for xG conceded, big chances conceded, shots conceded and shots in the box conceded this season. They have already kept 19 clean sheets this term - which is a league leading total and now have a...

... great run of fixtures coming up.

With so much to play for in the league, it's hard to imagine that Laporte will be rotated. He has started 27 of the 29 matches he has been available for this season so is as nailed as they come in the Man City defence. His goal threat...

... is under-rated as well - he's top among defenders for shots in the box and xG this calendar year.

The only caveat I'd like to mention here is that opting for Cancelo and Laporte means that you will probably have to forego the option of choosing both Foden and De Bruyne...

... should you want to go there later. As far as the attackers are concerned, it might be a situation where you try to wait to see who is rested and then buy one in their likely double GW36. KdB is an elite differential for now but it’s hard to fit him in with Chelsea, Spurs...

... and Liverpool forming the template.

Q: What should the strategy for non Wildcarders be?

This is one of the few weeks left in the run-in where you can afford to invest in a Chelsea, Man City or Liverpool asset and expect the hits to pay off in the remainder of the season. These are all top teams you’re investing...

... in giving yourself one additional week for that hit to pay off. You do it a week later and the odds of the hit paying off lessen.

Q: Who to sell and who to keep out of Barnes, Maddison, Saka, Kulusevski and Coutinho?

A lot of FPL managers are torn between who to sell for a Chelsea midfielder this week. Here’s my take:

-Barnes: I’d sell him. He scored in his previous game but with Lookman’s...

...resurgence, he will be prone to early substitutions or the occasional benching.

-Maddison: Ideally I’d keep him as he’s the best Leicester mid to own in my opinion. However, if there is no other route to a Chelsea mid, then I’d sell.

-Saka: Saka has the best xGi among all Arsenal players this season, and remains the standout Arsenal attacker to own. He could even be on penalties in the absence of Lacazette and Pepe, who aren't guaranteed playing time. Saka's fixtures are a bit under-rated as well - he has...

... a fixture vs an out of sorts United defence this GW playing on the same flank where Salah caused havoc in midweek. He then plays vs West Ham in 35 (which is either side of their fixture in Europa so expect rotation) and then has double in 36 which includes a fixture...

... against Leeds. Newcastle and Everton in Gameweek 37 and 38 are good fixtures as well which makes Saka a solid hold in your team.

-Kulusevski: He’s dispensable if don’t have any other route to a Chelsea midfielder. Good hold if you can afford to keep him though but Chelsea...

... midfielder is a priority.

-Coutinho: Coutinho has doubles in 36 and 37 which is why I’d keep him if you can, especially if you are not Free Hitting in 37 as he has a great double in 37. He has a good fixture in 35 against Norwich too why is why he's a good hold...

... I'd sell if you have no other route to a Chelsea midfielder though.

Q: Keep or sell Bruno?

I’ll keep this short and simple. If you don’t own Salah or don’t have a better route to a Chelsea midfielder, I’d sell Bruno as I don’t think keeping him is a priority despite the double. If you don’t have any pressing concerns, you can hold him this...

... week as he allows an easy move to KdB or Son next week. There’s also the fact that with McTominay back, Bruno may play in an advanced role – a role in which he has created the most big chances in the league under Rangnick this season.

Q: In this section, I cover Pukki and Nketiah.

With the lack of appealing forwards at the moment, I really like the idea of investing money in midfield and defence. Pukki and Nketiah help me achieve exactly that.

Six returns in the previous six games for Pukki - and it's...

... been no fluke either given that he's ranked third in the league for non-penalty xGi in this spell. At no point this season have his numbers been better! He has a decent fixture run as well including a double GW in 36 where both sides he plays will be focused on Europe.

"If there is one player that I have been unfair with, I think it is him. He has given me every right to do something different, so if Eddie hasn’t played more, it’s my fault and because as a manager I have missed something or I haven’t had the courage to play him more, and...

... today he showed me again how wrong I was.”

These quotes by Arteta suggest that he will give him more playing time in the weeks to come on the back of his superb performance against Chelsea. With no budget strikers who appeal at the moment, I think Nketiah is worth the risk.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! I’ve selected Jorginho as he’s on penalties. He only needs a goal + CS to beat his target. I’ve kept it simple with KdB, Son and Mane – with so much to fight for in the league, I believe all of them stand a good chance of beating their targets as well.

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