Thread by @DAlperovitch

A lot of misinterpretations of Deputy commander of Russian Central Military District Rustam Minnekaev’s statement this morning on this site. Here is what he actually said: 🧵interfax.ru/world/837353

“Since the beginning of the second phase of the special operation, it has already begun just two days ago, one of the tasks of the Russian army is to establish full control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine”

“This will provide a land corridor to Crimea, as well as ability to affect the vital objects of the Ukrainian economy”

“Control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria, where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population"

Let’s discuss each part of the statement.

2nd phase started two days ago:
It has been clear for weeks that the war was about to enter a new phase. That’s just a statement of obvious fact

Plan to establish full control of the Donbas:
Another fairly obvious observation of what the Russians are trying to achieve with the new offensive (doesn’t mean they will succeed, of course). No big shock here

And Southern Ukraine which will provide a land corridor to the Crimea:
Russia already controls a big chunk of Southern Ukraine, from Kherson to Donbas (with just surrounded defenders at AzovStal in Mariupol in the way). So that appears to just be a restatement of current reality

Ability to affect the vital objects of the Ukrainian economy:
This is unfortunately true. Much of Ukraine’s vital economic activity is in the south and by controlling the Black Sea and parts of the South, the Russians are blockading a critical export path

“Control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria”: Most controversial part of the statement. Some are reading it as a foreshadowing of a new offensive on Mykolaiv and Odesa

I don’t see it that way. “Way out to Transnistria” (выход) is not the same as a corridor/bridge and does not imply direct connectivity. It’s about future optionality for a new offensive but not an indication that one is imminent or may even ever take place

As a practical matter, I don’t believe the Russian military is logistically capable of executing such an offensive at the present time. Having once already been rebuffed with their attack on Mykolaiv, it will be hard for them to pull off a new effort in the near future

Last part of the statement “There are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population”:
This is obvious propaganda BS

So Minnekaev is largely stating the obvious facts that Russia is in the midst of a new offensive to try to take Donbas, already controls land bridge to Crimea and has an option for a “way out to Transnistria” from the South if it ever decides/musters up forces for that fight

END