How 'bout a 🧵on the artillery sent to Ukraine, as the narrative is bouncing between "this is pretty good," to "it's still not enough," to "NATO/US needs to do more!"
The devil is in the details.
(As a former tanker I'm not an expert on arty, but I've used it in combat) 1/10
1st, the towed artillery.
There are 2 types. I don't know how many of each are being sent but here are some details.
The older models are the "M198" (cannon-cockers say "M-one-niner-eight"). Produced in 1969, it's a good cannon.
Range 14-30 km, depending on the round. 2/
The new models are the M777 ("M-triple 7" in cannon-cocker speak).
A great system.
Half the weight of the M198, due to titanium construction. Uses a digital fire-control system that provides navigation, pointing & self-location.
Fires 14-40 km, depending on round. 3/
Both CAN fire rocket-assisted projectiles (RAP) to extend range & each CAN also fire precision munitions (that is, a round that will hit a designated target rather than just area explosions)
But the M777 fires the Excaliber GPS-guided munition out to 40 km. That's a big deal. 4/
The number of total cannons in the combined package equates to about 5 US battalions worth of artillery, and the 144+K rounds/projectiles is an awful lot.
Given the precision, and range, of these systems, IMO they will outgun the RUs in any artillery duel. 5/
While self-propelled (those on tracks) artillery can "shoot & scoot" faster after firing their rounds, the digital towed systems allow it to be emplaced as fast & move out almost as quickly as the tracked artillery.
And, the Russians ain't that well-trained in counter-fire. 6/
That brings us to...the radars.
Part of the package also included "artillery finding" radars (it's called the Q36).
Those radars "find" an enemy when they fire a round.
Digital systems then help transfer the location to the US guns to fire back. VERY quickly. "Counterfire." 7/
The package also includes many "small unmanned aerial systems (UAS)," or drones.
Those provide intel on locations, calculate grids & can pass location to a gun firing Excaliber BEFORE the RU even shoot.
For the tactical fight, small drones are MUCH better than Predators. 8/
I won't get into the Switchblade or "Ghost drones" recently developed (mostly for US special operators), but along with the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 all will be effective in both killing RU armored vehicles & increasing RU troops feeling of helplessness on the battlefield. 9/
UA has been effective in establishing kill zones & counterattacking thus far, & they're doing the same in the East.
Key to this phase of the fight for UK: Keep logistics trail light, incorporate simple & new equipment, counter RU arty, move fast , use quick reaction forces.10/10
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Woke up to several texts from journalists asking my thoughts on "West Point dropping duty, honor, country from their motto?" and one wrote "does this mean the Academy has gone 'woke'?"
My first thought: "let me get a cup of coffee before addressing this craziness."
A 🧵 1/9
This week, graduates received a letter from LTG Steve Gilland -the Superintendent (the USMA college president)- of @WestPoint_USMA informing of changes in the MISSION STATEMENT (NOT the motto).
The letter specifically said the MOTTO "Duty, Honor, Country" has NOT changed. 2/
Now, I know LTG Gilland well. He's a great soldier, terrific leader, and a common-sense guy.
As any leader - general or business CEO - knows, you have to continuously assess and analyze your mission statement.
In fact, I teach this to MBA students in leadership classes. 3/
Many of you have heard me say this multiple times with respect to the war in Ukraine.
Now we'll start seeing the same in Gaza with JLTOTS pronounced "Jay-Lots" for the media).
A 🧵 1/9
"Logistics determine the art of the possible."
Many of you have heard me say this multiple times with respect to the war in Ukraine.
Now we'll start seeing the same in Gaza with JLTOTS pronounced "Jay-Lots" for the media).
A 🧵 1/9
Airdropped humanitarian aid is precise and speedy, but it's limited in it's capability and capacity for certain kinds and large amounts of supplies. It's also relatively expensive.After you deploy expensive parachutes and GPS devices into the area, it's hard to get them back! 3/
On 24 Feb 2022, I scribbled some thoughts about what I believed were Putin's strategic objectives in invading Ukraine (see chart).
In the 1st 18 months of the conflict, Ukraines' action, NATO collaboration & US support caused him to fail.
We're at an inflection point. A 🧵1/
Addressing each: 1. Zelenskyy is still strong 2. Ukraine's army is still fighting 3. Ukraine's population is resilient 4. Ru does not control the Black sea ports 5. The west - especially the US - has returned to being divided, and NATO may now take fewer risks. 2/
Putin now knows that Ukraine's continued capability will - for the short term - continue to require support from the west.
So he is pulling out all stops, w/ mobilizations (over 400k new (untrained) soldiers as "meat" for attacks), a ramped up industrial base, & oppression. 3/
GEN Zaluzhnyi is 51 y.o., extremely young for a Commander of any nation's Armed Forces. Most 4-star generals are in their 60's with much more experience.
Since Feb '22 he's been the tactical, opn'l & strategic leader of the toughest fight we've seen in the 21st century. 2/
Here's what I mean by "tactical, opn'l, strategic" commander:
1. He commands the 2000+ mile tactical front 2. He coordinates each battles into an operational campaign plan 3. He "plays" in the strategic arena with his nation's leaders & over 50 supporting nations. 3/
Deterrence defined: The action or actions used to discourage an event by means of instilling doubt or fear of the consequences over time.
Many say deterrence against Iran & its proxies is failing.
It's too early to tell. 1/8
DETERRENCE is one technique that MAY contribute to national security strategy.
Some define strategy as the use of different MEANS in specific WAYS to reach on END STATE or OBJECTIVE.
I agree with that definition...and it's sorta like deterrence. 2/
In National Security Strategy, MEANS equates to difference tools at the nation's disposal (diplomancy, information, economics, military). WAYS is the approach you use to make those tools effective (think maneuver with military, economic sanctions, condemning actions, etc). 3/