A mini lesson on stocks:
✅Pandemic hits: investors flee to “safety:” stay-at-home stocks.
✅ Prices rise. FOMO investors join. Insane valuations follow.
✅ Original catalyst goes away.
✅“Safety” stocks bleedout
✅ Savvy managers return to original portfolios/out of safety (1/4)
✅ In 2021, that seemed to be large/mega caps. $QQQ/$SPY. Typically deemed “safe always,” companies like $AAPL, $MSFT, $GOOG, etc
✅2022 Catalyst: #Fed#inflation fight and war catalyst (contributes to inflation and has not reduced demand in USA
✅New “Safety” Trades Emerge (2/4)
✅Wheat, corn, nickel, oil, gas: commodities in general not only rise due to disruption, but due to “safety” investment.
✅Prices rise.
AT SOME POINT IN THE NEAR FUTURE:
✅These safety trades will bleedout. They always do. Be careful.
What do you do?
(3/4)
You have two choices.
1️⃣Recognize you’re in a safety trade. Set downside limits and trade out when catalyst and momentum ends.
OR2️⃣Use the fear as an opportunity to buy your long-term winners: Like $TSLA, on sale.
Diamond hand long-term winners.
Do not #diamondhand momentum.
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Debate Me: The BEST Inflation Hedge is $TSLA and I've added $2m to $TSLA in my own portfolio in the last trading sessions.
Here's why [tread]
✅Demand far outpaces supply (waits of 3-12 months for vehicles; average wait ~4-5 months).
✅TSLA has pricing Power (evidenced by rising prices w/ long waits).
✅Material stocks do well as a short-term hedge, but when that hedge evaporates, so do those valuations.
✅When the need for inflation hedges falls, $TSLA likely benefits from risk-on positioning.
(This means TSLA can win as inflation goes up AND as inflation goes down).
✅Recessionary fears COULD lower TSLA demand, but that would likely lower waits, not deliveries.
Elon Musk's brother sold over $108 MILLION in $TSLA stock Friday, the day before @elonmusk asks Twitter if he should liquidate over $25 BILLION in $TSLA stock solely to pay taxes & appease Twitter warriors (I doubt the reason by the way; Elon has a plan for the $). Maybe $BTC ?
Remember:
-Musk likely doesn’t like cash per his short-term inflation fears
-His 13F shows NO OTHER publicly traded stakes over 5%, (he’d easily have)
-He sold his real estate
-We expect $BTC to come back as payment acceptance for $TSLA cars.
I think $12-13b is going into crypto
This is pure speculation on my part thought. Maybe $BTC / $ETH split? Or $SHIB $DOGE? I see Musk as a bit more conservative on $ though so I’m betting on BTC, or at least that many institutions could speculate that.