Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #inflation

Most recents (24)

Rare Thursday Night #HauntedZillow:
The House from The Conjuring is for sale. $1.2M. Scary as heck. Dolls😱. Fair warning before you click through or scroll down.
zillow.com/homedetails/16…
Yes, Dolls are scary. Especially these dolls. #HauntedZillow
Apparently the folks who live here are "paranormal investigators" and have turned the house into a business. I do know I have no interest in living there and $1.2M seems a little stiff? It does come with 8 acres in Rhode Island though. #HauntedZillow.
Read 7 tweets
As expected, the @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee continued to discuss its plans to reduce, or #taper, the pace of its #AssetPurchase program at yesterday’s meeting.
While the details of this discussion were fairly sparse, the Committee statement did state that: “If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.”
Further, at the recent #Fed conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., and at the press conference, Fed #ChairPowell emphasized that both he and most Committee participants now consider the test of “substantial further progress” toward the #inflation mandate to be largely satisfied.
Read 10 tweets
1/9 A thread of one potential negative wind for #China #growth next few months: manufacturing firms forced to halt production under energy/environmental constraints 能耗双控. Firms in #Jiangsu asked to stop production. Malls asked to delay opening for 1/2 hour to conserve energy.
2/9 Background: 2060 carbon neutrality goal, National Development and Reform Comm.(#NDRC) sets a staged road map2025/30/35. Each province, two annual hard targets need to meet: total energy usage growth and GDP per unit energy used. (in Chinese) in-en.com/article/html/e…
3/9 AUG 7th, #NDRC graded each province in YTD red/yellow/green. Economically important provinces like #Guangdong, #Jiangsu #Fujian red for both targets. #ZheJiang yellow for both.
gov.cn/zhengce/zhengc…
Read 11 tweets
1/8 Friday night, a light thread on the most exclusive Chinese medical school, started by Americans 100 years ago. It’s a piece of US-China history I want my own kids to know.
2/8 Like income inequality, China university resources are not as equal as in the US. There are top 2 universities (Peking U&Tsing Hua) that everyone agrees among top 2, with the rest vying for the third.
3/8 Peking Union Medical College协和. Each year it admits about 100 students, with 1-3 student from each of 31 provinces, except Beijing having a higher quota of 20. In 1993, My father said he would have gone crazy if I got in. He didn’t go crazy.
Read 10 tweets
In August we saw #inflation growth moderate further, for the second consecutive month, at least relative to the impressive rate of growth in #prices witnessed around mid-year.
Core #CPI (excluding volatile food and energy components) came in at 0.10% month-over-month and 3.98% year-over-year, which was considerably less than the consensus forecast and was driven higher by #shelter components.
Meanwhile, headline #CPI data printed at a solid 0.27% month-over-month and came in at 5.20% year-over-year.
Read 11 tweets
Those #inflation numbers suggest that more stimulus is needed, if we take our 2% symmetric target seriously.

But maybe we don't.
I was disappointed that the #ECB did not act on its strategic review last time around. But fine, they wanted to re-assess inflation.

Now they have, and do ... nothing. Sigh.
The BIG INFLATION OVERSHOOT OF 2021 is ... 2.2%, including (contractionary) energy price increases.

Can you also feel the symmetry?
Read 4 tweets
$SIE if you want to own this German conglomerate (largest industrial company in Europe) you need to buy it on the Frankfurt exchange. No ADRs/pinks, for American investors. 🇩🇪👷‍♂️💪
principal divisions of $SIE: Industry, Energy, Healthcare, and Infrastructure & Cities. SIE is a prominent maker of medical diagnostics equipment and its medical health-care division (12% of Corp rev), is its second-most profitable unit, after the industrial automation division
$SIE: electrical (buildings, industrial automation, lighting, medical), motors /conveyor belts, compressors for oil+gas, motors for rolling steel mills , gear for wind turbines , cement mills,water processing #, raw materials processing , gas and steam turbines,
Read 31 tweets
Die #Inflation wird heftig: Einfuhrpreise steigen im Juli um +15,0% zum Vorjahresmonat. Dies war der größte Anstieg seit September 1981 (zweite Ölpreiskrise).

Wie hier vorhergesagt führt die Corona-Krise zu steigenden Preisen, gestresste Lieferketten und Engpässen.
1/4
Gefährlich kommt die expansive Geldpolitik hinzu, welche die inflationären Tendenzen verstärkt.
Der wahre Elefant im Raum ist nicht die Deltavariante, sondern der Abbau von Grundrechten, von wirtschaftlicher Aktivität und Freiheit. und von wirtschaftlicher Freiheit. Noch nie
2/4
in der Geschichte der Menscheit wurde eine Krise mit weniger Leistung und weniger harter Arbeit, gar mit der Druckerpresse der Notenbanken, mit sinnbefreiten Einschränkungen und Propaganda bewältigt. Große Teile der Bevölkerung sind der Realität entrückt und folgen
3/4
Read 4 tweets
1/Thanks to @steve_sedgwick and @cnbcKaren for having me on @CNBC #SquawkBox this morning.

We talked about - what else? - #inflation and #centralbanks and whether the #Fed & peers are 'making an historic mistake', in Steve's words.

A few charts & comments for background:-
2/It's trite to say the jump in price indices is *all* attributable to a 'basis effect' when they've accelerated so much THIS year.
3/ #JeromePowell and his merry band may wish to believe that the rise is a mere blip, but all too many businessmen & women (i.e., the people who *really* matter) seem to believe the converse is the case.
Read 10 tweets
#US Core #PCE #Inflation:
▪️ Annualizing 4.8% in 2021 vs Fed SEP projection 3.0%
▪️ Last Jul 3.6%. Even if annualizes only 2.5% for rest 2021, full year YoY would still be 3.9%
▪️ Sept FOMC will have to revise higher from 3.0% towards 4.0%
▪️ Can 2022 proj be left at 2.1%? ImageImage
Core PCE MoM past its peak?
- 5y avrg 0.17%
- Post Covid avrg 0.30%
- Post Vaccine avrg 0.39% (since Nov'20)
- Post Covid peak 0.63% (Apr'21)
- Last July print 0.34%

Transitory assumption: will ease towards 0.17-20% MoM into H1'22 (equivalent to 2.0-2.4% YoY) Image
Trimmed Mean Inflation?
▪️ Powell at JH "..to capture whether price increases for particular items are spilling over into broad-based inflation. These include trimmed mean.."
▪️ Excluded: 50 components from lower tail of distribution of monthly price changes & 71 from upper tail ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
#Inflation: Erzeugerpreise im Monat Juli 2021 steigen um +10,4% zum Vorjahresmonat - höchste Rate seit 1975.

Die Energiepreise stiegen um 20,4 % zum Vorjahresmonat, gegenüber Juni 2021 stiegen sie um 4,1 %!

Nadelschnittholz (+111 %) und bei metallischen Sekundärrohstoffen
1/5
aus Eisen-, Stahl- und Aluminiumschrott (+100 %), aber auch bei Betonstahl in Stäben (+82 %). Metalle waren im Durchschnitt insgesamt 32,2 % teurer als ein Jahr zuvor. Die Preise für Roheisen, Stahl und Ferrolegierungen waren 52,3 % höher.
2/5
Auch “Pflanzliche, nicht behandelte Öle kosteten 37,4 % mehr als im Juli 2020, Butter 18,5 % mehr.”

Die Bundesregierung schafft mit ihrer Coronapolitik eine in Teilen dysfunktionale Realwirtschaft, aus reißenden Transportketten, Engpässen bis hin zu Mangel, geparrt mit
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Why has US inflation been so low, despite super loose monetary policy?

Jul Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is at 4%, overshooting Fed's 2% target. This number is attributed to the baseline effect.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
1/ The Fed's playbook is to:

Use super-loose monetary policy to try to push unemployment down

Let inflation overshoot their 2% goal by a bit, for a while
2/ Fed has doubled-downed on its dovish approach by pledging to hold off on changing forward guidance until conditions are met.
Read 4 tweets
Ohne unseren #Widerstand wird die #Corona-Politik nie enden. In #Australien ist der #Faschismus bereits real - und Deutschland geht den gleichen Weg. Macht Euch die Fakten klar:
(1/8)
#Krankenhaus|platz und #Intensivbetten waren niemals knapp. Die Regierung hat nachweislich falsche Zahlen verbreitet, um Angst zu machen (#DIVIGate). Die #Justiz sieht bis heute tatenlos zu (2/8)
#Lockdown|s brachten nie Nutzen für die #Gesundheit; aber Milliarden-Schaden für unsere #Wirtschaft. Die #Inflation ist bereits auf Rekordhöhe und steigt weiter (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
1/ This is the largest issue with #Cryptocurency as a whole. This psychology. Scary as an investor. Price going up doesn’t make U a better project, company, tech etc. $CEL (LOW BETA) as it refers to pricing. Market Mechanics effect price. The project, company effects VALUE. 👇🏼
2/ Celsius #CapitalStructure & #Moat #6PlusRevenueStreams & VERY HIGH BARRIER TO ENTRY @CelsiusNetwork pays 80% of revenue back to depositor (married w/equity holder, so no conflict of interest as is case w/traditional Bank capital structures). $CEL © competitor 30% PROFITS lol
3/ Celsius didn’t or hasn’t listed on MAJOR exchanges, price is determined based on short term supply & demand. #MarketMechanics This effects the PRICE not VALUE. Not listing on Exchange allows them to give it back to community. Exchanges manipulate link.medium.com/Hpe9C3jSmhb
Read 16 tweets
THREAD

I meet a lot of retired Americans living on fixed income in Panama. The story is always the same - worked for years, retired on social security, can't afford to retire in the US. They live a modest life in a place like Panama.

#inflation is killing them.
A neighbor is a retired lawyer living on social security. Her rent is $700/mo for a very small apartment. She doesn't drive. Her entire income goes to rent and food.

It's easy to say "she should have saved for retirement" - but she *was forced* to pay into social security.
Having retired with a high income, she's one of the lucky ones, but with the constant price increases, inflation is going to get her, too. She's only 68.

The millions of Americans living on fixed income, and the millions who will retire soon, are all vulnerable.
Read 6 tweets
Thread ⏰: L’Effondrement de l’Empire Romain par l’effet de la planche à billets et de l’hyperinflation. Une cause essentielle.

Spoil : Nous vivrons un effondrement analogue Image
Jules César crée l’aureus une pièce d’or (8 grammes) et qui était très largement utilisée en Europe et en Méditerranée. Cette monnaie dure a favorisé le commerce et la spécialisation. Une stabilité économique qui a duré 75 ans et limitant les dépenses du gouvernement !!!
(y compris durant des périodes de troubles comme suite à l’assassinat du dictateur) Tout commence à basculer sous le sinistre Néron qui introduit l’écrêtage des pièces. Ce bandit collectait les pièces détenues par la population
Read 13 tweets
Our #inflation forecasts from March on plus the ultimate scare: the possibility of a hyperinflation.

The "shock" was plainly visible in prices of online products and, e.g., shipping 👇. When economies opened, it materialized. 1/4
@GnSEconomics #economy gnseconomics.com/2021/04/01/q-r…
By June, it was clearly visible that the source of #inflation had moved from "want to have products" to, e.g., food, rents and fertilizers, that is, to "need to have products", which would be reflected on wages

Alas, inflation was here to stay. 2/
gnseconomics.com/2021/07/15/inf…
But, what truly worries us, is the possibility of a very rapid #inflation , or hyperinflation. It's pre-requisites are:

1) Vast issuance of central bank credit, like QE, and
2) Diminution of production possibilities. 3/

Both are here now. 🥶
gnseconomics.com/2021/02/24/is-…
Read 4 tweets
Inflation data for July moderated somewhat, at least relative to the heady pace of recent months, which should temper #market and policymaker concerns a bit, despite the fact that #inflation will stay sticky-higher for a while and the #risk remains to the high-side.
Core #CPI (excluding volatile food and #energy components) came in at 0.3% month-over-month and 4.3% year-over-year, a bit less than the consensus forecast, and headline CPI data printed at a solid 0.5% month-over-month and came in at 5.4% year-over-year.
While we think that it’s hard to see a case for the recent levels of elevated #inflation turning into “1970s style” runaway price increases, higher #wages and elevated growth for an extended period will allow companies to achieve higher levels of #PricingPower for a time.
Read 7 tweets
What can cause the market to crash 70%+? I've been thinking more and more about this question as almost nobody, except @DaveHcontrarian, thinks it's a possibility.

Important thread⬇️for anyone invested in $BTC $ETH $SPY $QQQ #FANG or any other risk asset.
Let's start off by saying that I am in no way giving advice on what to do to prepare for a potential crash in the markets.

I am only giving my thoughts on what could happen that would lead to a massive correction and how I would not be surprised if it did.
Let's take a step back and look at the current environment:
-> Retail speculation at all time highs, look at any highly leveraged stock with worthless equity and madness going on in #crypto land and #NFTs
-> #liquidity near alltime highs, consumers flush with cash from stimmys
Read 16 tweets
1/ My top three takeaways from Howard Marks' latest memo "Thinking About Macro".

Thread below🧵👇

#howardmarks #valueinvesting #macro Image
2/ Most economic forecasters have lousy track records, so why trust them?

Time and attention is best spent elsewhere.

#economy #Economist Image
3/ Prices are mostly physiological elements reflected in reality.

Perceived increased demand can drive prices up, and vice versa.

Perception is not always reality.

#stockmarket Image
Read 5 tweets
Kleines Hintergrundfachdebattenwissen in Sachen #Inflation hier:
Sandleben behauptete im Juni eine kommende sinkende Geldwertstabilität. Springpunkt waren für ihn "Aktivitäten" der "Notenbank, die Billionenbeträge an Banknoten druckt bzw. als Guthaben per Mausklick elektronisch bereitstellt, um
Read 13 tweets

Related hashtags

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!