Here is our assessment:
🔹 the loss of Syrian logistics for #Russia is likely going to impact its operations in Africa.
🔹 Russia may have to find another place to touch down and refuel (#Iran ?) and/ or negotiate with HTS and allies
🔹 to watch: reactions of African juntas. This is a really bad signals for them as Russia has not (on purpose or because it was not able) to protect Assad’s regime
🔹 to watch: the Russian propaganda machine launching campaigns to reassure its clients
🔹 #Turkey has a window of opportunity which is opening in the region: maybe it will seize it in places like Libya, Mali or Niger
Today the Belt and Road Initiative forum starts in #China to promote peaceful development across the world. Far from this marketing messages, China has been supporting the war in #Ukraine - read our investigation here alleyesonwagner.org/2023/10/06/les…
The space sector has been developing fast in #China as part of one of its key strategic program - companies providing #GEOINT services are often connected to the gov and rely on companies part of the military space program to launch satellites
Company #Spacety which provides sat imagery to the PLA has been providing radar imagery to the Russian space ecosystem including the #Wagner group