Lawrence Freedman Profile picture
Apr 24 8 tweets 2 min read
A thread on proxy wars 1/
A persistent theme among commentators who will not go as far as supporting Russian aggression against Ukraine but have to find a reason why it is also the West's fault, is that this is really a war between NATO/US and Russia in which the poor Ukrainians are victims of both. 2/
Thus claims that the West is 'prepared to fight to the last Ukrainian' or is being used as 'a battering ram' by both sides, picking up on US references to 'proxy wars'. The basic problem with these claims is that they deny Ukrainians agency in their own war. 3/
The idea that the Ukrainians are only fighting because NATO countries are urging them to do so is obvious nonsense. They have not invaded Ukraine. Russia invaded Ukraine. They have sought Western support and complained when it was not forthcoming. 4/
The idea of 'proxy wars' has always been misleading. Its been used in the US in circumstances where local forces are providing the infantry and foreigners provide airpower and other forms of assistance (for example in battle of Mosul v ISIS or Russ support of Assad in Syria) 5/
Its misleading because suggests that local forces are there to serve the interests of the foreigners. In practice it as likely to be the other way round. 6/
In this case the foreigners are not even providing supporting airpower (which is what Zelensky asked for early on). Zelensky also argues that Ukraine is paying a high price for serving NATO's interests because if Russia wins NATO countries will be next on the list 7/
But he does not suggest for a second that if NATO stopped assisting that all would be well with Ukraine and its people would stop dying and suffering. For Zelensky this is an argument for more support from NATO and not less. 8/

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More from @LawDavF

Mar 26
A lot of US commentary on Russo-Ukrainian war assumes it is US responsibility to define terms for a settlement. This is reflected in discussions about the concessions Ukraine meeds to make and now whether the overthrow of Putin should be a war aim. 1/
The negotiations are between Ukraine and Russia, not US and Russia. The Russian objective was regime change in Ukraine. In these circumstances, and Russia’s brutal conduct of war, a Ukrainian demand for regime change in Moscow would not be unreasonable.2/
But it is also unrealistic. Any peace settlement will deal with other matters. But it is also the case that Putin’s personal position is at stake here because he has made a massive blunder. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 25
What are we to make of this Russian statement that a first phase of the operation is complete so that the intention now is to concentrate on its main objective and take the Donbas? 1/
1/
First, we are reluctant to accept Russian statements at face value, but this makes some strategic sense. However they seek to dress it up, past month represents a major failure. Away from the Donbas all its offensives are stalled, and Ukrainian counter-attacks underway. 2/
The article does not preclude returning to the task of 'storming' the main Ukrainian cities once it has completed its primary task. This begs the question of what it has been trying to do the last few weeks (it suggests defeating the Ukrainian air force and navy). 3/
Read 6 tweets
Dec 8, 2021
The fallacy of the first move. A thread. 1/
As the Russia war scare rumbles on I remain struck by the number of claims being made about the high quality of Putin's military options, demonstrating how any Ukrainian (or other potential victim) resistance will be crushed and how little NATO can do to help.2/
These claims tend to suffer from the fallacy of the first move, by which confidence in the ability of a military operation to achieve its initial objectives leads to a neglect of all the possible - and often more difficult - consequential moves to follow. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Dec 2, 2021
With the current attention being given to Russia's menacing military buildup there is a lot of discussion about how seriously the threat should be taken and how to respond.1/
Inevitably at times like this we get the two favourite historical analogies - rapid mobilisation in the summer of 1914 or Munich in 1938. One warns about ambitious military moves; the other too many diplomatic concessions. 2/
Trouble with both analogies is we know they each led to war, and so 'lessons' can get overdrawn and by now are cliched. And also they come from pre-nuclear age. Risks of war are different now. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Mar 16, 2021
Thread on UK nuclear weapons policy. Be patient. Quite long.
The statement in the review on UK nuclear policy is the most comprehensive for some time, although it requires careful reading. It largely reaffirms existing policy. 1/
Most important announcement is the increase in the nuclear stockpile from 180 to no more than 260 warheads. The number derives from the maximum that can be deployed if two subs are on patrol. 16 missiles per boat; 8 warheads per missile; two boats on patrol. 16 x 8 x 2 = 256. 2/
Read 21 tweets
Jun 11, 2020
The paper I tweeted yesterday was not the one to which Channel 4 referred (apologies) but one actually discussed at SAGE (which is why i assumed one mentioned). I have done a bit more research to work out how Prof Riley’s paper fitted into pattern of decision-making. 1/
This is what Channel 4 said.
channel4.com/news/uk-govern…
Professor Riley’s paper warned that is measures were not taken then the UK faced a Covid-19 catastrophe. Channel 4 say they don’t know how it was evaluated and they don’t say why it was written. 2/
Professor Riley, one of the Imperial College team, was not the only modeller urging action. John Edmunds’ group at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine had been warning of the scale of the coming epidemic since February.3/
Read 18 tweets

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