As far as the part about moving Private Leverage to the Public Balance Sheet.
Public Debt funded Reagan’s SDI, 9-11, 2008 GFC & Covid Near Depression (-5% 1Q20 & -31% 2Q20 GDP w 15% Unemployment)
Question is… has Public Debt/GDP Peaked at 135%?
Having said that the rate of change of public debt/gdp has collapsed. As the Fiscal handoff is moving more to Monetary Aggregates like loan growth. #EarlyCycle
My own view is that Path to Twin Deficit Reduction is gonna be through Nat Gas & Shale Oil… once we get through Nov ‘22 Elections (ESG is just too expensive)..we don’t have the time or Competitive Advantage… eventually we use a cleaner version of Fossil.. w some other stuff.
IG Index trading at +119bps…
IG US Bank Index trading at +122bps… gets the benefit of Regionals that are still super tight… a good sign for Credit..if there was a Recession there’s no way Credit wouldn’t be punting Regionals…..
IG Banks would be way inside the IG Index if not for heavy Money Center GSIB TLAC Supply for the last really 12 months…this overhang might actually be coming to an end or at least slow down based on a few things:
1) SLR related Supply for HoldCo is needed less actually coz QT
“Don’t fight the U.S. consumer. They are a very strong force and you can see them very healthy. Their loan balances are down, they have plenty of borrowing capacity and they have plenty of spending capacity.”
Hate to break it to some of these Perma Bears… but the Fed hasn’t run out of Bullets to fight inflation… they can continue to Hike rates & slow down QE or even step up RRP cash disbursements that make the Banking system even more ridiculously liquid.
The act of liquifying Banks in a Post Basel III & Gold Plated (including CCAR etc) world.. & creating M2 doesn’t in & of itself create inflation.. the Regulatory framework pushes money out of Banks on Supply side when it meets an optimal demand function. $XLF #Reflation