After I posted the artillery logistics thread,🧵 I visited a Twitter space and it was pointed out that the Russian Army wouldn't necessarily use airburst shelling in urban area.
The Russian Army had really some good reasons to do so, like this👇👇
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The Russian Army had really some good reasons to do so, like this👇👇
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https://twitter.com/UWTracker/status/1501025827445747716
This brings up an important point about modern intelligence analysis.
Just because you might have a both good & correct explanation for the Russians not using airburst artillery to clear roof tops of Ukrainian missile teams like:
"Russia can't do combined arms."
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Just because you might have a both good & correct explanation for the Russians not using airburst artillery to clear roof tops of Ukrainian missile teams like:
"Russia can't do combined arms."
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Doesn't rule out other good & correct explanations at the same time.
[BTW, Nice combined arms explanation thread here👇👇]
[BTW, Nice combined arms explanation thread here👇👇]
https://twitter.com/Mr_Andrew_Fox/status/1516534376053587973
"Russia can't do combined arms." can be joined with all of the following:
o Russia can't produce airburst fuzes
o Russian soldiers aren't trained to use airburst artillery
o Russian logistics didn't bring airburst fuzes
o Russian airburst fuzes don't work
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o Russia can't produce airburst fuzes
o Russian soldiers aren't trained to use airburst artillery
o Russian logistics didn't bring airburst fuzes
o Russian airburst fuzes don't work
4/
Each of those good & correct explanations have different fault trees leading into different parts of the Russian military system.
Jumping at "Russia can't do combined arms" as the "One True Shiny Thing" precludes exploring all other fault trees.
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Jumping at "Russia can't do combined arms" as the "One True Shiny Thing" precludes exploring all other fault trees.
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This "Shiney Thing, Not Everything" analysis of intelligence is the heart of the "Directed Cognition" error leading to that infamous Pentagon '96 hours Ukraine will fall to Russia' computer model.'
Artificially closing you mind to all the other possibilities which may be
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Artificially closing you mind to all the other possibilities which may be
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...simultaneously true blinds the intelligence analyst to wider & more important truths.
The "Russia can't do combined arms" only worldview simply won't let you see the endemic corruption of the Russian Gangster Kleptocracy that following all the other fault trees
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The "Russia can't do combined arms" only worldview simply won't let you see the endemic corruption of the Russian Gangster Kleptocracy that following all the other fault trees
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...to their logical conclusions & then comparing notes on them would do.
The "It's a lower collection priority" is an excuse, not a reality.
Somehow, for 80-years, the manual labor centric Russian artillery logistics system never made it to the consciousness of Western
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The "It's a lower collection priority" is an excuse, not a reality.
Somehow, for 80-years, the manual labor centric Russian artillery logistics system never made it to the consciousness of Western
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...military intelligence in February 2022.
This despite people like US Army officer Ralph Peters writing a very successful popular fiction book on the Red Army called "RED ARMY" in 1989 pointing out that exact fact.
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This despite people like US Army officer Ralph Peters writing a very successful popular fiction book on the Red Army called "RED ARMY" in 1989 pointing out that exact fact.
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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1517323449013882882
The reality of "Directed Cognition" in Western professional intelligence is the "direction" comes from political leaders indicating what it is they want to hear.
Then you see the senior intelligence officials playing 'client' to their political 'patron' via bending their
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Then you see the senior intelligence officials playing 'client' to their political 'patron' via bending their
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...organizations resources & promotion incentives to 'approved narratives' at the expense of a "stare you in the eyes and slap your face with a fresh caught salmon" truth.
This was how we got 80 years of missing Russian Army manual labor logistics and now not seeing gaps in
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This was how we got 80 years of missing Russian Army manual labor logistics and now not seeing gaps in
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...Russian Army Artillery capability, specifically the lack of airburst artillery, after two months of combat.
When political leadership wants narrative and not intelligence.
Mirror imaging & group think simply fills in the data where the narrative says not to look.
12/End
When political leadership wants narrative and not intelligence.
Mirror imaging & group think simply fills in the data where the narrative says not to look.
12/End
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