2/5 E Macron won the French election and is reelected as French President for 5 years. R Golob won in Slovenia and will become the new Prime Minister. Both opponents Le Pen in France and Jansa (current PM) in Slovenia are Euro Sceptics.
3/5 The focus in this round of EU elections was on France. However the change of Government in Slovenia further isolates V Orban (won reelection in early April 2022) in the EU 27. EU policy formulation and enforcement has become easier.
4/5 In the past Poland, Hungary and Slovenia often put on the breaks on European legislation. Poland has become much more EU friendly in reaction to the Ukraine invasion. A change of gov in Slovenia has made Orban a lonely man for now.
5/5 Sweden in September this year and Italy no later than June 1 next year are the next elections to watch where meaningful Euro skeptic parties are on the ballot. See also my thread Part 3 from April 15th.
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2/6 Poland (40%) and Bulgaria (77%) have traditionally been dependent on Russian Gas (numbers are from 2020 and are estimated somewhat higher for 2021).
3/6 Both countries have planned well ahead. Poland is opening a gas link with Lithuania in May and the Baltic Pipe connecting to Norway is planed to be operational in October.
(2) Here is the forecast from the Energy Information Agency (eia.gov) from late 2021 (Chart by @GregorMacdonald ):
(3) Post Ukraine invasion the EIA on March 16th 2022 lowered its forecast by 1 million barrel per day which is below the 2019 peak. I expect more downward revisions to come.