1/4 Macrovoices Podcast Episode 334 with guest @Go_Rozen

From the transcript: "we just got back from 🇩🇪, the Germans are basically resigned to the fact that they are not going to have electricity this winter".

What was/is the reality?

#electricity #germany #EnergyCrisis 2/2 Actual situation up to January 24th 2023 for the month of January (peak of winter in 🇩🇪):

🇩🇪 biggest net exporter of electricity in Europe.

1/8 Forward curves for 🇪🇺 gas prices (TTF) show falling prices but levels remain double 🇺🇸 benchmark (Henry Hub) until 2031.

Thus the 'Doomsday crowd' forecasts de-industrialization of 🇪🇺.

I am positioned the other way.

Chart via @GeorgZachmann
#gas #gasprices #EnergyCrisis 2/8 The first counter argument is that this is somewhat more a return to the past with TTF generally trading way above Henry Hub.
Chart via @MiguelGilTertre

1/10 Focus on demand destruction in oil getting more coverage.
Demand destruction meets supply issues.

#Oil , #xle , #CrudeOil , #energy 2/10 I have written a number of threads since March this year about my assumption that global oil demand peaked in 2019. The reasons can be found in the threads listed below.

1/13 A few thoughts on nuclear energy as the white knight of European energy security and independence against the background of Russian fossil fuel dependence.

Not really...

#Nuclear
#EU
#electricity 2/13 Let me say upfront that I am not against nuclear energy but it has to make sense. For example Germany made a mistake in shutting down nuclear energy quickly for political reasons. A better approach would have been to sweat the nuclear assets as long as reasonably possible.

1/16 Lots of noise on oil again at the moment.

Who wins the race between peak/falling oil consumption and supply constraints?
#oil
#XLE 2/16 I seek out information which does not confirm my thesis that oil consumption is peaking for good.
I listened to J Young on @JackFarley96 podcast this morning. The relevant part I disagree with is at 8:29 min "oil demand continues to grow at 1% annually".

1/6 A quick update on gas storage levels in Europe (a follow up to my thread from April 10th.).

Currently Europe is on course to reach 80% storage level before October.
#gasprices 2/6 Reuters reported a few days ago that Ukraine (a major transit route of Russian gas into Europe) is stopping some gas deliveries into Europe.

reuters.com/business/energ…

1/13 Where is the FED Put?

Stock market decline of 30 to 40% in isolation most likely won't cause a FED pivot. Financial (in)-stability the main potential driver for a FED pivot. Watch the US $.
#FederalReserve
#inflation
#NASDAQ 2/13 "Don't fight the FED" is investment advise with a lot of muscle memory. Over the last three decades stock market investors have gotten used to the FED coming to the rescue when markets are down 20+ %.

1/10 Germany ready to support EU ban on Russian oil.
Dependency on Russian oil imports cut from 34% to 12%.
German daily oil bill to Russia has now been reduced from US $ 74.8 mil to 26.4 mil (assuming US $ 100 per bbl).
#Oil
#Germany
#Russia
dw.com/en/germany-rea… 2/10 German Economics Minister Habeck presented the 2nd report on Energy Security on May 2nd 2022. In regards to oil he reported that crude oil imports from Russia have been reduced to 12% of all German oil imports (from about 34% before the Ukraine invasion). @BMWK

𝟭/𝟲 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮 𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝘂𝘁 𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗴𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮 𝗼𝗻 𝗔𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗹 𝟮𝟳𝘁𝗵 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮.
𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗮 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱 & 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗴𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮.
#gas
@JavierBlas 2/6 Poland (40%) and Bulgaria (77%) have traditionally been dependent on Russian Gas (numbers are from 2020 and are estimated somewhat higher for 2021).

𝟭/𝟱 𝗣𝗿𝗼 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗵 & 𝗦𝗹𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
𝗛𝘂𝗻𝗴𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗳𝘂𝗿𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱.
#FrenchElection2022
#Slovenia
#Europe 2/5 E Macron won the French election and is reelected as French President for 5 years. R Golob won in Slovenia and will become the new Prime Minister. Both opponents Le Pen in France and Jansa (current PM) in Slovenia are Euro Sceptics.

1/9 Are Currencies pegged to the US $ such as the Hong Kong $ or Saudi Riyal an opportunity for a short? I favor the Middle East currencies as shorts over Hong Kong due to global oil consumption dynamics (see my thread dated March 27th).
#HongKong
#SaudiArabia
#Oil
#USD 2/9 On April 20th I wrote a thread about the arguments for and against the demise of the US $ as the global reserve currency. No matter where you come down on this, there is an additional dynamic for currencies pegged to the US $. Political and oil related.

1/6 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝗯𝗲𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝟭 𝗺𝗶𝗹 𝗘𝗩 𝗿𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝘆 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟰𝟬𝗸 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝟭 𝗺𝗶𝗹 𝗜𝗖𝗘 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗲? See also my thread dated March 31st 2022. 2/6 The average US car owner drives 14,500 miles per year and gets on average 24 miles per gallon. In other words he uses 604 gallon per year (14,500 divided by 24 = 604).