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Tom Forth Profile picture
@thomasforth
Apr 25, 2022 • 34 tweets • 14 min read • Read on X
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BRB, calculating the most Macron and most Le Pen protected French wine region.
French wine AOCs are, of course, highly defined. And now #opendata.
But there's an even better way in. This table (.csv format) has all the protected designation products listed out by commune. And of course we have election results by commune. So it should be pretty easy. data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/ai…
Stick it together with that in Excel. Image
Results are in. Top AOC for Macron is from the commune of Le Clat (11140) a tiny village in Aude département, in Occitanie, in French Catalonia. 43 registered voters. 25 voted for Macron, 1 was a blank vote, 0 for Le Pen. ImageImageImageImage
Oops, got my numbers wrong there. only 31 registered voters. 25 voted for Macron. 1 Blank. 0 for Le Pen. Anyway. The rest is right. But thinking about it, maybe I need to up the quality. Require a top tier AOC. I'll do Le Pen's now and think again.
Flammerécourt (52110) in Grand-Est. Quality sparkling wine. 57 registered voters. 48 votes. 1 for Macron (absolute LOL at this village trying to figure out the splitter 🤣). 1 spoiled. 46 for Le Pen. ImageImage
France is varied eh? ImageImageImage
This will need a rethink.
Right. We go again. This time a map. Much less efficient, but built in vibe checks make it less likely I'll mess up, and it should help me refine the question. And this time I'm just looking at AOC wines. But where is Champagne?!?! data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/de… Image
Okay. This is another way in. Get each AOC Wine, add up all the votes for its communes. That way the two winners are ones I can actually buy. And who cares about Champagne. I'll figure out why that's missing some other day.
Looking good. Especially for Le Pen. Crikey. Some BIG names in there. Saint-Estèphe, Chablis, Châteauneuf-du-Pape, Pauillac. It's as we'd guess. The Loire for Macron. The Rhône for Le Pen. ImageImage
I'm going to have to pick ones I can purchase (so not Clairette). So I'll go red. Le Pen's two are gonna be Cotes Du Rhone Villages Plan De Dieu and a Saint Estephe (£££s eek). Macron's --- oh dear,... ImageImage
I am not to be able to justify that purchase I don't think. Understanding this "President of the Rich" thing now TBH. ImageImage
Yeah that's not happening Macron. Image
A lot of prime Burgundy is Macron territory, I didn't realise. I guess it's rich people. The Loire being Macron was expected. I'd have though Bordeaux would be too, but Le Pen is strong in some parts. I think I'd best put this on a map.
People asking after the Crémants. Crémant de Loire is your Macron choice. Crémant de Limoux (the original sparkling wine) is your Le Pen choice. Image
Well there we are. Yet again with apologies to Champagne, I'll try and fix you another day. I'm using the standard colours, Yellow = Macron, Le Pen = Dark Blue. Here around Angers is dominant Macron wine country. Chablis goes for Le Pen. Big choices. ImageImageImage
The lower Rhône is all Le Pen, but Clairette de Die just a bit higher up and off the river a bit is strong Macron. As for Bordeaux, well. ImageImage
The former bulk wine areas in Languedoc are very Le Pen. Perhaps a desire for protection against cheaper Spanish bulk wine. It's an anti-globalisation sentiment that I can understand. French wine growers want French to drink French wine like in the past. theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2… ImageImage
The decline in French alcohol consumption is just astonishing. The average French person drinks less than a quarter as much wine today as they did in the 1960s. And look at that cidre decline. Image
More data on French boozing since 1960. insee.fr/fr/statistique… Image
Gone back to 1950 via some PDFs. The decline (in boozing, thus improvement in health and lots of other things) started in the 60s. ImageImageImage
1956 infamously when French children stopped being given wine at school. smdh.
Did Le Pen promise to bring school wine back in her manifesto? I have my reservations, but I think it's important for cultures to find common ground at this time so it may be worth investigation?
Well, well, well. UK drinking trends are nothing like French ones. Astonishing. jrf.org.uk/sites/default/… Image
Armed with my tables and maps from yesterday, I shall now go to @latitude_wine and try and buy their most Macron and their most Le Pen wine.
@latitude_wine Final results were here. -->
Et voilà. Image
And look how good the cycle paths are. ImageImageImageImage
It's very important to ship early, get feedback, digest that feedback, and make improvement. Agile or something. And what I've learned from the first two iterations of this is that I need to extend my methodology to the first round too. And also to French Rhum.
I also still need to think through how I map overlapping AOCs. And how I do the labelling when there's so much repetition. Do you like wine @undertheraedar? I might need to call in a favour.
@undertheraedar But first the data analysis. We're now beyond the Excel and QGIS stage. This needs reproducible and fast analysis (so I can do lots of rounds of analysis). For most people that means Python or R. For me that means C# .NET in Visual Studio. It's what I'm used to and it's fast.
@undertheraedar One of the reasons I love @datagouvfr -- the discussions are fantastic. Here, someone has asked the same question I had about Champagne, and the data owner has replied with an explanation and a promise to work on the solution. Really good stuff. Image

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More from @thomasforth

Tom Forth Profile picture
Apr 30
Lots of other good points. Wind farms, free tuition, democracy, etc... but I still think it's the economics that matters most. If Scotland's economy with devolution had performed as badly as Yorkshire's or the West Midlands I think there'd be calls to undo it.
Of course Scots don't track GDP numbers. But a society can feel it's prosperity. Scots have friends, family, and work in places like Newcastle, Sunderland, Leeds, Bradford, Birmingham, and Wolverhampton. They can feel their relative prosperity and success since devolution.
If Scotland's success is because of fiscal transfers then,... that's a reason to support a mechanism that retains those transfers.
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But North England and the West Midlands are much bigger recipients of transfers within the UK. Image
Read 5 tweets
Tom Forth Profile picture
Mar 31
That Indian railway electrification number seems to check out. Coloured = electrified. Black = not electrified.
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Here's the part of Europe with similar population density to North England vs. North England.
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Denmark used to be the country that propped up the UK on rail electrification lists. Then they had a disastrous attempt to buy new diesel trains and realised that electrification was the sensible option. So they,... just did it. Two thirds done now. uk.bane.dk/en/Projects/El…
Read 5 tweets
Tom Forth Profile picture
Feb 19
"Birmingham City Council has confirmed it will raise council tax by 21% over the next two years as part of £300m budget savings.

Street lights are to be dimmed, waste collections are to become fortnightly, while burial costs will increase."

Ooooof. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…
It's the big cuts to social care that'll really cause problems. Probably a lot of costs passed on to the NHS. But it was dimming the streetlights that I think summed up the desperation of it. So good work on the BBC for that write up I reckon.
It's good that Birmingham has been allowed exceptionally by the UK government to put up council tax by that much. Otherwise the cuts would be even deeper. And it would be good if Birmingham had more taxes it could raise, and by more, under local democratic control. But,...
Read 26 tweets
Tom Forth Profile picture
Nov 20, 2023
I'd thought about getting this graph for myself the other day when I was reading about UK public sector productivity. I kept on expecting it would appear but it didn't. I couldn't be bothered. But now Julian's done it and thus I get it for zero effort. Which is high productivity!
I share Julian's caution around definitions of public sector productivity. Contributing (in a tiny way, via measurements of teacher-assessments of how much kids were learning through online lessons) to some of the education data over Covid deepened that. It is often very hard.
But it being often very hard does sadly open the door for people to claim that it's always nearly-impossible. That's wrong. See recent tweets by @sib313 for more details on how measuring NHS productivity is hard, but probably not as hard as made out in the excuses made.
Read 19 tweets
Tom Forth Profile picture
Nov 2, 2023
Fine. I'll do the hard arguing. The UK state has too much analytical capacity. And it gets bad outputs from it because it chooses to do the wrong type of analysis which is therefore too hard. And now I'll give a very specific example.
Around 2017 I started tracking every bus and tram on a high frequency route in Birmingham and used this data to calculate the effective size of the city by public transport at different times of the day. Still to the best of my knowledge, I was first. tomforth.co.uk/birminghamisas…
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Of course no innovation happens in a vacuum and transport researchers have done similar work (I know about quite a lot of this). We presented the work in Oxford in 2018 and asked around whether anyone had ever seen similar analysis. And people said no. So it was new enough. Image
Read 26 tweets
Tom Forth Profile picture
Oct 24, 2023
I employ three people who live in Nottingham. It's useful to get them to come to Leeds a couple of times a week. And it shouldn't be that hard. Nottingham is 60 miles away. Similar distance as, say, Eindhoven to Rotterdam. And both pairs are connected by a direct train,...
The scheduled time for the hourly two-carriage diesel train here in North England is 1h57m. Average speed of 31mph. Today four of the fifteen trains were cancelled. Under half arrive anywhere near on time. Average delays are about 15 minutes (if they're not cancelled) Image
Same the other way. three cancelled delayed. Under half arrive on time. Average delays about 15 minutes. Image
Read 6 tweets

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