Once again, many commentators overestimate Russia's military might in Ukraine, having learned little form Ukraine's victory in the battle of Kyiv. Russia has only made minor improvements: One general in command, some (but not enough) concentration, better supply lines.
1. Russia's decisive disadvantage is that Putin remains in command, just like Hitler, & not learning like Stalin from his mistakes in the Finnish Winter War (Mark Galeotti).
2. Genius Putin is driven by the calendar. He wants a victory by May 9, so he has driven his beated troops to attack far too early. They are tired & need more regrouping & repairs, but Putin has to have his victory by May 9.
3. Pentagon claims Russia has 84 battalion tactical groups in Donbass with 800-1,000 men in each = 75,000 men. Ukraine had 40,000 men there to begin with & now surely at least 60,000. Thus, Russia has barely numerical superiority & is attacking
4. Many count with the original Russian strength, ignoring Russia's enormous losses. According to Ukraine, they have killed over 21,000 Russian soldiers. With normal rate of injured 3 injured to one killed, Russia has lost at least 75,000 soldiers out of 150,000 in ground forces.
5. Russia has not added many new troops, perhaps 10,000. Since this is not a "war" but a "special military operation," it is not legally desertion to refuse to join the army & young Russians are refusing in masses to fight.
6. The Russian soldiers are in foreign land, have no local knowledge & no goal ("denazification"!?). They are a motley collection of third-rate soldiers who failed to refuse to come. The Ukrainians claim contemptuously that they do not know how to fight & just kill civilians.
7. The Russian army has lost about half of all the hardware it deployed to Ukraine apart from the old Soviet heavy artillery, which is its only strong point. If it loses another third of the rest, it can hardly continue fighting.
8. Finally, Ukraine is receiving plenty of good, modern, offensive heavy Western weapons, which are superior to the old Soviet junk the Russians use. Thanks to Western export controls, Russia can no longer produce tanks or missiles or get spare parts to its damaged hardware.
9. To sum up:
Ukraine has far better soldiers & almost as many as the Russians;
Ukraine has better & more modern weapons;
The Ukrainians are defending their land, while the Russians are clueless.
The Ukrainian army has proven superior in tactics.
Russia has only artillery.
Ukraine has far better soldiers & almost as many as the Russians;
Ukraine has better & more modern weapons;
The Ukrainians are defending their land, while the Russians are clueless.
The Ukrainian army has proven superior in tactics.
Russia has only artillery.
10. Thus, Ukraine is likely to win.
What does that mean?
At least, Russian forces will be chased out from newly gained territories in Ukraine.
As in the north, retreating Russian troops are not likely to dig trenches but to rush home & Putin wants a decision by May 9.
What does that mean?
At least, Russian forces will be chased out from newly gained territories in Ukraine.
As in the north, retreating Russian troops are not likely to dig trenches but to rush home & Putin wants a decision by May 9.
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