2/6 Poland (40%) and Bulgaria (77%) have traditionally been dependent on Russian Gas (numbers are from 2020 and are estimated somewhat higher for 2021).
3/6 Both countries have planned well ahead. Poland is opening a gas link with Lithuania in May and the Baltic Pipe connecting to Norway is planed to be operational in October.
4/6 Bulgaria is connecting to Greece via the Greece-Bulgaria Gas Interconnector. Commercial operation is planed to start in September. The Tanap pipeline connecting Azerbaijian via Turkey to Greece is operational since 2018.
5/6 Furthermore Poland has planed well ahead with its gas storage as of April 26th at over 75%. Bulgaria gas storage level at just over 17%. However total Bulgarian gas imports are only 3bcm and new Gas Interconnector pipeline has capacity of 3 to 5 bcm.
6/6 This is not to say that there will be no price & economic impacts. Decrease of Russian gas supply does tighten overall supply and could put upward pressure on price. However systemic risk/no gas available to Poland & Bulgaria are vastly overstated.
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2/5 E Macron won the French election and is reelected as French President for 5 years. R Golob won in Slovenia and will become the new Prime Minister. Both opponents Le Pen in France and Jansa (current PM) in Slovenia are Euro Sceptics.
3/5 The focus in this round of EU elections was on France. However the change of Government in Slovenia further isolates V Orban (won reelection in early April 2022) in the EU 27. EU policy formulation and enforcement has become easier.
(2) Here is the forecast from the Energy Information Agency (eia.gov) from late 2021 (Chart by @GregorMacdonald ):
(3) Post Ukraine invasion the EIA on March 16th 2022 lowered its forecast by 1 million barrel per day which is below the 2019 peak. I expect more downward revisions to come.