Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

This is a point worth examining. We have lots of stress on what if Russia goes for societal mobilization now (normally by the way by those who argued that Russia would conquer Ukraine quickly). However, societal mobilization is not easy under the best of conditions.

https://twitter.com/EHunterChristie/status/1519456464427003905

Still voices speak (without evidence) that Russia is some large military power that can almost dictate terms in Ukraine. This article in @guardian might be the worst. No evidence given on Russian strength, but an assumption Russia can fight a long war. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

People seem to be forgetting that societal mobilization and long war has enormous political, economic and military risks for Russia. Its not just about calling soldiers to the ranks--its about training them and equipping them. Russia is not in the best position to do this at all.

Russia has no training system to handle some mass infusion of untrained personnel. They already have called up this year's normal conscript soldiers (Only 135k because of Russia's demographic crisis) and they are right now being trained. reuters.com/world/europe/r…

If they want to train more--they need to set up a training system first to handle more soldiers. This normally takes many months in an efficient system. Only once you have the training system, can you start actually creating your new army.

Just as an example, it takes the US in WWII, even with preparations under way. more than 6 months to start expanding significantly its pool of trained personnel. and its not til more than a year that the numbers really take off.

So the Russians need to train the trainers, then train the new soldiers. According to this @ISW report, Russian training takes somewhere between 3-6 months.

Here is the whole report--also points out that Russia is struggling with getting reserves. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/e…

So under exceptionally efficient systems, you might expect a large army expansion with well trained soldiers in 9 months. Could RUssia do that--doubtful. Probably poorly trained, unmotivated conscripts could be produced, but thats it.

Then you have to equip them. Again, all this blase talk about Russia going to full mobilization misses the fact that Russia is economically weak and now operating under sanctions. jpost.com/international/…

The Russians are already suffering shortfalls in replenishment. It would again take a very efficient and well planned economy to ramp up production under these sanctions. SO arming the new mass army with new weapons will be hard. thedrive.com/the-war-zone/s…

Sure, they can get all their oodles of equipment that has been sitting around in storage for years, not being maintained, etc. Their front line stuff has already shown weaknesses. Imagine what the second-line stuff is like

So Russian mobilization requires the establishment of a training system that doesnt exist and the growth of arms production that is being crippled. It would also require an admission by the Russian government that they are losing the war. Thats a political risk.

Is interesting to note that when they called up this year's conscripts, they said they would not be sent to Ukraine. There are stories of RUssian army recruitment stations being burned too. Will people actually want to fight and die in this war? Questionable.

And while the Russians are assembling this force of hastily untrained, not well equipped, and politically questionable conscripts to fight in a war that they have been calling a great success--the Ukrainians will be getting more and better equipment from NATO.

Ukraine is already upgrading its training and will beat the Russians to the punch by getting better prepared soldiers to the front lines months earlier--and thats if Russia acts now.

So understand Russian societal mobilization is not something that can be simply bandied about. It requires action and preparation that the Russian government is clearly reluctant to do. Stop talking about it like its easy and Russia is some large power. Neither is true.

And Russia has to start now. Waiting till May 9 is even too late. Ukraine has already started its societal mobilisation in training and equipment.

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1519580599429832705

Interesting time reference by Pres Biden in the announcement of the massive $33billon aid package. Wants to make sure Ukraine has significant success within 5 months. Ie before Russia could do a wide scale mobilisation, were it so inclined.

Attaching this thread here, so you can see more about the package and the timing issue.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1519696127695724544