🧵Recent Eurosystem and ECB staff projections have largely underestimated surging inflation. Such forecast errors are widespread across peer institutions, which suggests they are due to unforeseen global factors ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b…#EconomicBulletin
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The errors in our energy inflation projections largely reflect unexpected price hikes. More persistent supply bottlenecks and a swifter economic recovery than anticipated have also contributed to our underestimation of inflation when excluding energy and food
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Forecasting inflation developments will continue to be a challenge for the foreseeable future, owing to volatile energy prices and the uncertainty from the war in Ukraine. Our staff continuously review and adjust the models and assumptions underlying the projections
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The Russian invasion of Ukraine has cast a dark shadow over our continent, says Vice-President Luis de Guindos as he presents our 2021 Annual Report to the @Europarl_EN
De Guindos: The war in Ukraine is above all a human tragedy causing enormous suffering. But it is also affecting the economy in Europe. Growth will be slower than expected and inflation is likely to remain high in the coming months
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De Guindos: The war has also exposed major strategic vulnerabilities in Europe, including our dependency on fossil fuel imports. Speeding up the green transition is therefore crucial
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🧵 Globally coordinated efforts are needed to bring crypto-assets into a regulatory framework, says Executive Board member Fabio Panetta at @Columbia. We must not repeat past mistakes by waiting for the bubble to burst before acting ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…
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Panetta: Unbacked crypto-assets can’t even fulfil their objective of facilitating payments, since they are too volatile to perform as money. We must decide how to regulate them, seeking a balance between innovation, financial stability and consumer protection
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Panetta: Crypto-assets already have a larger market than sub-prime mortgages had before the global financial crisis started. The longer we wait, the more exposures and vested interests build up. And the harder it will be to act
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🧵 How much less will people consume in response to the recent increase in energy prices? After a period of recovery following the pandemic, the rise in commodity prices since last summer has affected people’s spending plans ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b… #EconomicBulletin
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Exposure to fluctuating energy prices differs across income groups: the less people earn, the bigger the impact of higher prices. Poorer households spend a large percentage of their income on energy, meaning they are particularly affected by rising costs
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Targeted fiscal policies can play a key role in supporting those most affected. According to our Consumer Expectations Survey, people with higher exposure to changing energy prices are more likely to feel a need for governments to buffer the impact of increasing costs
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A digital euro can only be successful if it meets the payment needs of Europeans, says Executive Board member Fabio Panetta. Focus groups have provided us with key input for the project.
Panetta: We want to ensure the digital euro adds value for users and that they have confidence in it. A digital euro could provide a universally accepted and secure solution that facilitates contactless and instant payments
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Panetta: As important market segments, e-commerce, physical store and person-to-person payments are natural candidates to be prioritised among the possible use cases of a digital euro. A digital euro could also be used for payments between governments and individuals
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Lane: What we’ve seen in the last number of months is the energy shock, which is by far the dominant factor and which is now further amplified by the war
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Lane: Right now clearly inflation is a huge issue across Europe. But this essentially is an imported inflation shock, it’s a supply shock. Most of this inflation will fade away
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The war is expected to have a considerable impact on the global economy, and especially on the European economy, President Christine @Lagarde tells @philenewscy. The overall impact will very much depend on how long the war lasts.
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Lagarde: The war will likely lower euro area growth and push up inflation in the short term through:
➡️ higher energy and commodity prices
➡️ lower consumer confidence
➡️ disruptions to international trade
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Lagarde: The decisions by EU governments clearly demonstrate their determination to respond to this horrible act of aggression and their solidarity with the people of Ukraine.
It is crucial that sanctions are effectively implemented, and we @ecb are doing our part.
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