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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Apr 28 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
Gosh, would never have imagined this. Biden Administration calls for $33billion in military support for Ukraine. That’s almost 10 times the annual military support for Israel. This opens up a range of support options. politico.com/news/2022/04/2…
Also seems to indicate the Biden administration is convinced Putin is bluffing about nuclear weapons, as this is a direct challenge to everything Putin has said about escalating in response to NATO support for Ukraine.
Actually, if you take out corruption, it might match or the exceed the Russian defense budget in effectiveness

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 30
Battle of the Donbas seems to be already have turned into a battle of attrition that holds out almost no possibility of a major Russian victory and more likely will peter out in the next week or so because of unsustainable losses. Image
Lets look at losses. Using claimed Ukrainian losses of Russian equipment as a gauge of combat intensity, it seems that the last 10 days have seen a major increase of fighting with much heavier losses being suffered (presumably by both sides).
I made this chart showing cjlaimed losses over 2 day periods between 14 April and just released information for today. Losses really leapt up after 18 April when the Battle was said to have started. The rise in tank loss rates was approx double and in APC losses more than 75% Image
Read 15 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 28
Pentagon briefing today, a few interesting points on Russian logistics and AirPower, and the Battle of the Donbas. defense.gov/News/Transcrip…
First, rather remarkable but 63 days into the war and fighting much closer to its supply dumps, the Russian army is still being severely limited by logistic problems. Progress forward is ‘incremental’ Image
Basically logistics problems alone (not including Ukrainian resistance) means Russian forces can only ‘sustain’ more than a few kilometres of progress a day. This is still extraordinarily little.
Read 9 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 28
This is a point worth examining. We have lots of stress on what if Russia goes for societal mobilization now (normally by the way by those who argued that Russia would conquer Ukraine quickly). However, societal mobilization is not easy under the best of conditions.
Still voices speak (without evidence) that Russia is some large military power that can almost dictate terms in Ukraine. This article in @guardian might be the worst. No evidence given on Russian strength, but an assumption Russia can fight a long war. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
People seem to be forgetting that societal mobilization and long war has enormous political, economic and military risks for Russia. Its not just about calling soldiers to the ranks--its about training them and equipping them. Russia is not in the best position to do this at all.
Read 20 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 26
Reopening this because Ukrainian claims of losses point to a significant increase in combat activity in the fighting (assuming mostly Donbas) which a major increase in destroyed Russian equipment.
Most recent update from Ukrainan armed forces has a major acceleration in Russian tank losses. In only two days claimed Russian losses in tanks has risen by 45 (873 to 918) and APCs has stayed steady at 70 (2238-2308).
Before two days ago the Ukrainians were claiming that the Russians are losing tanks at a rate of 14.5 a day, which has gone up by 50% the last two (to 22.5). Worth watching to see if the rate stays high as it gives an indication that the fight is increasing.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 26
If you want a concrete example of the failures of realism staring us straight in the face, it’s Germany. A country with all the economic and technological requisites to be an assertive regional power, yet which is paralysed by its own politics and traditions.
And btw Russia is just as great example of the failures of realism. A country that had no idea that it was not the great power it thought it was, and thus has embarked on this self destructive spiral that it needn’t have done.
I’m intrigued that people see these tweets as arguments that Germany and Russia should play certain roles. They really aren’t. They are examples of how a realist model of state behavior fails to take into account huge variance in policy choices. Ostensibly powerful states…
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 25
A great thread by @EliotACohen , and pleased to see the praise for @edwardstrngr , who I really think people should follow.
But watch out criticising the Russian military analysts, they can denounce en masse, when reflection would be better.
And I’d like to add that @MarkHertling has been consistently excellent on getting to the reality of shortcomings in the Russian military and strengths in the Ukrainians.
I just came across @general_ben in the last few weeks and he has some great reflections on relations with Ukraine and what the war means so far for the US military.
Read 4 tweets

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