Ukraine's destruction of these railway bridges require far more exposure of the declining Russian tactical truck fleet to Ukrainian ATGM/Mortar/Drone kill teams in the south.
Or Switchblade 600 that has the same anti-tank warhead as a Javelin missile
6/
Michael Kofman makes clear in this latest 'War on the Rocks' podcast that Russia at its current level of mobilization has just one more offensive in them, in Donbas & is perilously short of infantry, lots of reasons.
The offensive in the Donbas & shortage of Russian infantry means Ukraine can infest the countryside in the South with those missile armed ATV/Buggy's you see up thread.
Moving at night with Western NVG & hiding during the day means RuAF helicopters can't interdict them 8/
With @elonmusk Starlink they can communicate with Ukrainian high command to coordinate & synchronize strikes across the whole of the southern theater with post-strike video uploaded in short digital encrypted bursts.
This dual rail bridge destruction just hollowed out the Russian Southern front's logistics plus requires more combat vehicle escorts for truck convoys needed to replace railway shipments.
This further dilutes Russian Army combat power at the South where Ukraine is pushing
15/
Now to the gut punch of the thread.
I believe Ukraine's 'right wing wheel' offensive in the south is imminent.
16/
Ukraine has been able to replace losses in the South and Russia has not.
The survival of the Azov/Marine garrison in Mariupol means many of the 13,000 man Russian ground formations attacking there are still pinned screening it.
Since many of those 13K are dead or casualties
17/
...there are little or no reinforcements for the Russian front lines in the south
And note, the Mariupol garrison still has Starlink communications to coordinate with Ukrainians outside Mariupol.
18/
Ukrainian hearts will want to push to Mariupol, but Ukrainian strategists would want a push to put Crimea's air & sea facilities into Smersh BM-30 & GMLRS range.
Ravaging Russia's Crimean logistics facilities will do more to unhing Russia's military in the south than pushing 19/
...a narrow relief corridor to Mariupol.
Crimea seriously threatened will collapse Russian positions across the south, possibly causing a southern front wide rout.
20/
This is the risk Russia is running by pushing it's last offensive into Donbas.
We will see if Ukraine wants to wait out the Russian's Donbas offensive or play for higher stakes right now.
I think its going to be soon.
21/End
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The TB2 as a result is cheaper, smaller and it's MAM-C & MAM-L munitions are good enough to get the job done compared to a Hellfire missile on a MQ-12 Grey Eagle.
This is the history of one Vietnam era drone program that did what is being done over Donbas right now.
The Secret Lightning Bug War Over the Vietnam War
2/
William Wagner's 1982 book "Lightning Bugs and other Reconnaissance Drones The can-do story of Ryan's Unmanned 'Spy Planes' details what 'Remotely Piloted Aircraft' did then and what we call 'Drones" do now.
The US missile containers you saw in the video are the product of decades of improvement in mechanized logistics, human factors & experience with failed container technology.
Now the packaging technology teachable moment, TOW missile edition.
After I posted the artillery logistics thread,🧵 I visited a Twitter space and it was pointed out that the Russian Army wouldn't necessarily use airburst shelling in urban area.
The Russian Army had really some good reasons to do so, like this👇👇 1/
This brings up an important point about modern intelligence analysis.
Just because you might have a both good & correct explanation for the Russians not using airburst artillery to clear roof tops of Ukrainian missile teams like: