SBA Profile picture
Apr 28 16 tweets 6 min read
A statement form SBA Cap reguarding $SU and #Elliott.
Well this is going to be fun. $SU
The legendary activist shop Elliott has kicked off what we, like they, hope to be the beginning of the end for this malaise that has set in at Suncor for many years now. $SU
We agree with Elliott about their diagnosis and the recommended course of treatment – as we have pointed out here ad nauseam Suncor is profoundly undermanaged, $SU
while we have been impressed with Mark Littles’ willingness to personally own their issues around HSE and employee fatalities we are unconvinced that he is the correct person to lead what needs to be a substantial cultural turn around; $SU
to whit we support Elliott in their move to add 5 directors to the Board of Suncor, and we look forward to seeing the esteemed roster they have assembled. $SU
It is heartening to see the inclusions of Suncors’ emission reduction plans into Elliott’s presentation $SU
this shows the understanding that any course of action that does not maintain or increase efforts to decarbonize will run into a dramatically less friendly political environment than it otherwise may. $SU #Suncor
Between Suncors’ reaction and the assumptions imbedded in any activist campaign it is being taken as received wisdom that Suncor will be particularly difficult activist case, $SU
at the risk of being overly contrarian we have a high degree of confidence in the Elliott campaign to succeed. $SU #Suncor
We have been critical of Suncor since before Elliott started sniffing around, and their letter reads like I wrote it (not bitter at all about that, not even a shout out or a follow). $SU #Elliott #Suncor
In all this time being a bear on Suncor we have never heard anyone make an affirmative case for current management; $SU #Elliott
many a case that it is due for a rerate, or that the market will wake up to the cash generation or any number of other things about why the stock will move higher but never a case that current management is good at what they do. $SU #Suncor #Elliott
this seems to be a pretty universal take, even in stodgy Calgary where the C-Suites tend to circle the wagons. $SU #Suncor
As such while it goes against the conventional wisdom we are much more bullish on Elliotts’ chances than others as existing management does not have a leg to stand on when trying to make an affirmative case for their own existence. $SU #Suncor
Any how, we wish the Elliott team all the success in this good fight, in addition – Jesse, in the future, remember to grab the twitter handle for your campaign @RestoreSuncor is in good hands, mine – let me know.
$SU #RestoreSuncor #Elliott

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More from @SadBillAckman

Apr 29
SBA Capital outlines it's proposals to #UnfuckSuncor $SU Image
$SU #GSUN Image
Structural issues facing Suncor
$SU Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 28
Come on #Elliott, only a 45 page deck?

Triple digits or bust.
I love how most of the value in $SU to be created is just by closing the multiple gap with $CNQ
#Elliott leading with an #ESG focus makes sense - no one can be seen to pull back on these initiatives... you know like $SU itself did when it delayed the Coker to CoGen project.
Read 16 tweets
Apr 28
Elliot owns 3.4% of $SU

Otherwise known as 420 times what Mark Little owns.
OK, which Elliot analyst follows me?

$SU
And then they got Murried. $SU $CNQ
Read 6 tweets
Apr 28
Sure - want to prove your company is not just a transfer of value from the min owners to private investors...

The dude in on the board of a company that depends on the CRA not looking too closely at tax losses, employees no one, and is threatening people over WFH.
He has no idea what kind of fucking the E&P space could be in with their FCF, and the lack of an interest group supporting them.
Like 5 years ago I was in a briefing with a political advisory who was making the point that for E&P's Canada have as much political risk as Nigeria, and they are not WRONG!
Read 4 tweets
Apr 27
I get into this debate with people form time to time - the jobs are part of the rent.

$PSK employs like what, 20 people - if freehold min tax goes to 100000000 precent of prod, who the hell advocates for them?
$XOM owns what, 1.2mm Ha, who cares if they get fucked, they don't empty anyone.

The concert of the governed can be taken pretty damn quick.
Rafi is flirting with outsourcing here - what about a provincial tax of 90% on dividends?

He literally sits on the board of $TPZ, a company that pays no tax, employees 4 people and passes cash to shareholders.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 27
I feel like this (or a better version of it) should in $ARX offices, they are good at not doing stupid shit, but it never hurts to be reminded.
Never forget, the reason they were able to grab $VII for so cheap was that 7G made a lot of "Fortune favours the bold" type bets - and ya it could have worked out a lot better for people that put cash into VII.
$VII was a bet on a future that came!

They were mostly right!

Fucking 7 dollar #GasIsBack!

But they didn't live long enough to let the people who bet on that vision of the future collect those winnings!
Read 4 tweets

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